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Friday, 08 May 20
LNG DEMAND FACED SEVERAL HEADWINDS IN THE FIRST QUARTER OF 2020 - GASLOG
 LNG demand faced several headwinds in the first quarter of 2020 including a warmer than average winter in the northern hemisphere, high inventory levels of natural gas and LNG in several of the largest end markets for LNG and the outbreak of COVID-19, the impact of which has had an uneven distribution around the world during the year to date. For example, Chinese demand was 15 million tonnes (“mt”) in the first quarter of 2020, a decrease of 5% over the first quarter of 2019, according to Poten, but apparent demand in April has increased year-on-year based on vessel tracking data, including several cargoes exported from the U.S., GasLog says in its latest financial report.
Gaslog further noted, meanwhile, demand from Northern Asia more broadly (Japan, China, South Korea and Taiwan) grew by approximately 1 mt in the first quarter or 3% year-over-year. In addition, demand from India grew by nearly 2 mt in the first quarter of 2020 (or 37%) as the country looked to take advantage of historically low gas prices, although apparent demand in April is likely to be lower year-on-year based on vessel tracking data. Finally, demand from Europe grew by over 4 mt (or 37%) as gas pricing favored coal-to-gas switching for power generation and LNG replaces indigenous gas production. In total, LNG demand was 98 mt in the first quarter of 2020, compared to 89 mt in the first quarter of 2019, or an increase of 10%.
Wood Mackenzie currently expects global LNG demand to grow 21 mt or 6% this year, slower than the 26 mt or 7% it anticipated earlier this year prior to the global outbreak of COVID-19. Nonetheless, the demand for LNG over the near-term continues to be uncertain as many LNG importing countries either continue to have in effect shelter-in-place orders which prevent the operation of businesses deemed to be “non-essential” or are in the early stages of reopening their economies. Consequently, measures of global economic activity have declined significantly from comparable periods in 2019. However, the longer-term outlook for LNG demand remains favorable with demand growth of 92 mt estimated over the 2019-2025 timeframe, or compound annual growth of approximately 4%, according to Wood Mackenzie.
According to GasLog's latest financial report, global LNG supply was approximately 98 mt in the first quarter of 2020, an increase of 10 mt over the first quarter of 2019 (or 11%), primarily due to new supply additions in the U.S. (Cameron T1 and T2, Freeport T1, T2 and T3 and Elba Island), according to estimates from Wood Mackenzie. LNG supply is estimated to grow by 22 mt this year as the third train of Cameron begins operations and recent capacity additions continue to increase production. Further ahead, approximately 97 mt of new LNG capacity is expected to begin production during 2021-2025. However, Wood Mackenzie expects the pace of new project sanctions to slow significantly in 2020 due to the uncertainties caused by the COVID-19 outbreak in long-term demand for LNG and low global energy prices, in particular crude oil prices due to oversupply following a collapse in oil demand due to the COVID-19 virus.
In the LNG shipping spot market, tri-fuel diesel electric vessel (“TFDE”) headline rates, as reported by Clarksons, averaged $57,000 per day in the first quarter of 2020, a decrease from the averages of $108,000 in the fourth quarter of 2019 and $59,500 in the first quarter of 2019. Headline spot rates for steam turbine propulsion (“Steam”) vessels averaged $40,000 per day in the first quarter of 2020, a decrease from the average of $78,000 per day in the fourth quarter of 2019 but approximately in line with the $39,000 per day observed in the first quarter of 2019. Slower than expected LNG demand growth due in part to the impact of COVID-19 (as detailed above), high global inventories of natural gas and LNG following a warmer than average winter in the Northern Hemisphere and limited opportunities for LNG arbitrage trading between Atlantic and Pacific basins impacted headline spot rates in the first quarter of 2020.
Clarksons currently assesses headline spot rates for TFDE and Steam LNG carriers at $32,500 per day and $23,000 per day, respectively. The COVID-19 outbreak has introduced significant uncertainty regarding demand for LNG, and consequently, demand for LNG shipping over the near term. The combined impact of the COVID-19 outbreak and normal seasonality may lead to greater volatility in spot rates and to lower utilization of vessels trading in the spot and short-term markets, in particular Steam vessels. In addition, global gas prices and gas price differentials remain near historic lows in the key markets of North Asia and Europe, limiting the opportunities for inter-basin arbitrage trading and likely reducing average voyage distances as well as potentially reducing global output of LNG over the near-term, particularly in the U.S., where a number of cargo deferrals and/or cancellations have been reported for this summer, said GasLog.
As of May 5, 2020, the orderbook totals 118 dedicated LNG carriers (>100,000 cbm), according to estimates from Poten, representing 22% of the on-the-water fleet. Of these, 74 vessels (or 63%) have multi-year charters. The pace of newbuild ordering has slowed significantly relative to 2018-19, with only 4 newbuildings ordered so far in 2020 and all of them ordered against multi-year contracts, an encouraging development for the future supply and demand balance of LNG carriers.
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Tuesday, 02 June 20
CHINA TAIYUAN COAL TRANSACTION PRICE INDEX DOWN 0.86 PCT - XINHUA
China Taiyuan coal transaction price index stood at 123.95 points Monday, down 0.86 percent week on week.
The index, released by Chi ...
Monday, 01 June 20
SUPRAMAX: IN SOUTH EAST ASIA RATES TRADED SIDEWAYS - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
A sober end to the week, with the market seemingly ready for the weekend. After a steady week of rate declines a small flurry of Atlan ...
Friday, 29 May 20
COVID-19: COAL SUPPLY BY CIL TO POWER SECTOR DIPS 22% TO 32 MT IN APRIL DUE TO DEMAND SLUMP - PTI
Over 95% of CIL’s production comes from its 171 open cast mines.
The supply of coal to the power sector by state-owned Coal In ...
Friday, 29 May 20
AUSTRALIA'S NEW HOPE WARNS OF HIT FROM COAL PRICE SLUMP - REUTERS
Australia’s New Hope Corp Ltd said on Thursday that a sudden drop in thermal coal prices and lower output from its Queensland operations woul ...
Friday, 29 May 20
GOVT MAY LAUNCH COAL BLOCKS AUCTION PROCESS UNDER COMMERCIAL MINING ON JUN 11 - PTI
The Centre is likely to launch the process of coal blocks auction under commercial mining on June 11 and around 50 mines are expected to go under t ...
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- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Australian Coal Association
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- The University of Queensland
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- White Energy Company Limited
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
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