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Friday, 08 May 20
LNG DEMAND FACED SEVERAL HEADWINDS IN THE FIRST QUARTER OF 2020 - GASLOG
 LNG demand faced several headwinds in the first quarter of 2020 including a warmer than average winter in the northern hemisphere, high inventory levels of natural gas and LNG in several of the largest end markets for LNG and the outbreak of COVID-19, the impact of which has had an uneven distribution around the world during the year to date. For example, Chinese demand was 15 million tonnes (“mt”) in the first quarter of 2020, a decrease of 5% over the first quarter of 2019, according to Poten, but apparent demand in April has increased year-on-year based on vessel tracking data, including several cargoes exported from the U.S., GasLog says in its latest financial report.
Gaslog further noted, meanwhile, demand from Northern Asia more broadly (Japan, China, South Korea and Taiwan) grew by approximately 1 mt in the first quarter or 3% year-over-year. In addition, demand from India grew by nearly 2 mt in the first quarter of 2020 (or 37%) as the country looked to take advantage of historically low gas prices, although apparent demand in April is likely to be lower year-on-year based on vessel tracking data. Finally, demand from Europe grew by over 4 mt (or 37%) as gas pricing favored coal-to-gas switching for power generation and LNG replaces indigenous gas production. In total, LNG demand was 98 mt in the first quarter of 2020, compared to 89 mt in the first quarter of 2019, or an increase of 10%.
Wood Mackenzie currently expects global LNG demand to grow 21 mt or 6% this year, slower than the 26 mt or 7% it anticipated earlier this year prior to the global outbreak of COVID-19. Nonetheless, the demand for LNG over the near-term continues to be uncertain as many LNG importing countries either continue to have in effect shelter-in-place orders which prevent the operation of businesses deemed to be “non-essential” or are in the early stages of reopening their economies. Consequently, measures of global economic activity have declined significantly from comparable periods in 2019. However, the longer-term outlook for LNG demand remains favorable with demand growth of 92 mt estimated over the 2019-2025 timeframe, or compound annual growth of approximately 4%, according to Wood Mackenzie.
According to GasLog's latest financial report, global LNG supply was approximately 98 mt in the first quarter of 2020, an increase of 10 mt over the first quarter of 2019 (or 11%), primarily due to new supply additions in the U.S. (Cameron T1 and T2, Freeport T1, T2 and T3 and Elba Island), according to estimates from Wood Mackenzie. LNG supply is estimated to grow by 22 mt this year as the third train of Cameron begins operations and recent capacity additions continue to increase production. Further ahead, approximately 97 mt of new LNG capacity is expected to begin production during 2021-2025. However, Wood Mackenzie expects the pace of new project sanctions to slow significantly in 2020 due to the uncertainties caused by the COVID-19 outbreak in long-term demand for LNG and low global energy prices, in particular crude oil prices due to oversupply following a collapse in oil demand due to the COVID-19 virus.
In the LNG shipping spot market, tri-fuel diesel electric vessel (“TFDE”) headline rates, as reported by Clarksons, averaged $57,000 per day in the first quarter of 2020, a decrease from the averages of $108,000 in the fourth quarter of 2019 and $59,500 in the first quarter of 2019. Headline spot rates for steam turbine propulsion (“Steam”) vessels averaged $40,000 per day in the first quarter of 2020, a decrease from the average of $78,000 per day in the fourth quarter of 2019 but approximately in line with the $39,000 per day observed in the first quarter of 2019. Slower than expected LNG demand growth due in part to the impact of COVID-19 (as detailed above), high global inventories of natural gas and LNG following a warmer than average winter in the Northern Hemisphere and limited opportunities for LNG arbitrage trading between Atlantic and Pacific basins impacted headline spot rates in the first quarter of 2020.
Clarksons currently assesses headline spot rates for TFDE and Steam LNG carriers at $32,500 per day and $23,000 per day, respectively. The COVID-19 outbreak has introduced significant uncertainty regarding demand for LNG, and consequently, demand for LNG shipping over the near term. The combined impact of the COVID-19 outbreak and normal seasonality may lead to greater volatility in spot rates and to lower utilization of vessels trading in the spot and short-term markets, in particular Steam vessels. In addition, global gas prices and gas price differentials remain near historic lows in the key markets of North Asia and Europe, limiting the opportunities for inter-basin arbitrage trading and likely reducing average voyage distances as well as potentially reducing global output of LNG over the near-term, particularly in the U.S., where a number of cargo deferrals and/or cancellations have been reported for this summer, said GasLog.
As of May 5, 2020, the orderbook totals 118 dedicated LNG carriers (>100,000 cbm), according to estimates from Poten, representing 22% of the on-the-water fleet. Of these, 74 vessels (or 63%) have multi-year charters. The pace of newbuild ordering has slowed significantly relative to 2018-19, with only 4 newbuildings ordered so far in 2020 and all of them ordered against multi-year contracts, an encouraging development for the future supply and demand balance of LNG carriers.
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Thursday, 04 June 20
CHINA'S BENCHMARK POWER COAL PRICE EDGES UP - XINHUA
China’s benchmark power coal price rose slightly during the past week.
The Bohai-Rim Steam-Coal Price Index (BSPI), a gauge of ...
Thursday, 04 June 20
DON'T FORGET THE REAL PURPOSE OF RISK ASSESSMENTS - GARD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
When doing a risk assessment, we often overcomplicate it and forget its real purpose.
Rather than ensuring that crew ...
Wednesday, 03 June 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Once again shipping is about to venture into uncharted waters and before the challenges of the past decade are forgotten, shipowners will have to o ...
Tuesday, 02 June 20
KOSPO LOOKING FOR 80000 MT OF 4200 NCV COAL FOR JULY
COALspot.com: Korea Southern Power Co., Ltd. (KOSPO) has issued an International tender for 80,000 Metric Tons (MT) 4200 NCV coal for 12 - 21, July ...
Tuesday, 02 June 20
INDONESIAN COAL MINER BUMI RESOURCES Q1 OUTPUT UP 5% - REUTERS
Indonesia’s largest coal miner Bumi Resources posted a 5% increase in first-quarter output at 20.8 million tonnes, the company said in a stat ...
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- The University of Queensland
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Planning Commission, India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- White Energy Company Limited
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- PTC India Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
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