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Friday, 08 May 20
LNG DEMAND FACED SEVERAL HEADWINDS IN THE FIRST QUARTER OF 2020 - GASLOG
 LNG demand faced several headwinds in the first quarter of 2020 including a warmer than average winter in the northern hemisphere, high inventory levels of natural gas and LNG in several of the largest end markets for LNG and the outbreak of COVID-19, the impact of which has had an uneven distribution around the world during the year to date. For example, Chinese demand was 15 million tonnes (“mt”) in the first quarter of 2020, a decrease of 5% over the first quarter of 2019, according to Poten, but apparent demand in April has increased year-on-year based on vessel tracking data, including several cargoes exported from the U.S., GasLog says in its latest financial report.
Gaslog further noted, meanwhile, demand from Northern Asia more broadly (Japan, China, South Korea and Taiwan) grew by approximately 1 mt in the first quarter or 3% year-over-year. In addition, demand from India grew by nearly 2 mt in the first quarter of 2020 (or 37%) as the country looked to take advantage of historically low gas prices, although apparent demand in April is likely to be lower year-on-year based on vessel tracking data. Finally, demand from Europe grew by over 4 mt (or 37%) as gas pricing favored coal-to-gas switching for power generation and LNG replaces indigenous gas production. In total, LNG demand was 98 mt in the first quarter of 2020, compared to 89 mt in the first quarter of 2019, or an increase of 10%.
Wood Mackenzie currently expects global LNG demand to grow 21 mt or 6% this year, slower than the 26 mt or 7% it anticipated earlier this year prior to the global outbreak of COVID-19. Nonetheless, the demand for LNG over the near-term continues to be uncertain as many LNG importing countries either continue to have in effect shelter-in-place orders which prevent the operation of businesses deemed to be “non-essential” or are in the early stages of reopening their economies. Consequently, measures of global economic activity have declined significantly from comparable periods in 2019. However, the longer-term outlook for LNG demand remains favorable with demand growth of 92 mt estimated over the 2019-2025 timeframe, or compound annual growth of approximately 4%, according to Wood Mackenzie.
According to GasLog's latest financial report, global LNG supply was approximately 98 mt in the first quarter of 2020, an increase of 10 mt over the first quarter of 2019 (or 11%), primarily due to new supply additions in the U.S. (Cameron T1 and T2, Freeport T1, T2 and T3 and Elba Island), according to estimates from Wood Mackenzie. LNG supply is estimated to grow by 22 mt this year as the third train of Cameron begins operations and recent capacity additions continue to increase production. Further ahead, approximately 97 mt of new LNG capacity is expected to begin production during 2021-2025. However, Wood Mackenzie expects the pace of new project sanctions to slow significantly in 2020 due to the uncertainties caused by the COVID-19 outbreak in long-term demand for LNG and low global energy prices, in particular crude oil prices due to oversupply following a collapse in oil demand due to the COVID-19 virus.
In the LNG shipping spot market, tri-fuel diesel electric vessel (“TFDE”) headline rates, as reported by Clarksons, averaged $57,000 per day in the first quarter of 2020, a decrease from the averages of $108,000 in the fourth quarter of 2019 and $59,500 in the first quarter of 2019. Headline spot rates for steam turbine propulsion (“Steam”) vessels averaged $40,000 per day in the first quarter of 2020, a decrease from the average of $78,000 per day in the fourth quarter of 2019 but approximately in line with the $39,000 per day observed in the first quarter of 2019. Slower than expected LNG demand growth due in part to the impact of COVID-19 (as detailed above), high global inventories of natural gas and LNG following a warmer than average winter in the Northern Hemisphere and limited opportunities for LNG arbitrage trading between Atlantic and Pacific basins impacted headline spot rates in the first quarter of 2020.
Clarksons currently assesses headline spot rates for TFDE and Steam LNG carriers at $32,500 per day and $23,000 per day, respectively. The COVID-19 outbreak has introduced significant uncertainty regarding demand for LNG, and consequently, demand for LNG shipping over the near term. The combined impact of the COVID-19 outbreak and normal seasonality may lead to greater volatility in spot rates and to lower utilization of vessels trading in the spot and short-term markets, in particular Steam vessels. In addition, global gas prices and gas price differentials remain near historic lows in the key markets of North Asia and Europe, limiting the opportunities for inter-basin arbitrage trading and likely reducing average voyage distances as well as potentially reducing global output of LNG over the near-term, particularly in the U.S., where a number of cargo deferrals and/or cancellations have been reported for this summer, said GasLog.
As of May 5, 2020, the orderbook totals 118 dedicated LNG carriers (>100,000 cbm), according to estimates from Poten, representing 22% of the on-the-water fleet. Of these, 74 vessels (or 63%) have multi-year charters. The pace of newbuild ordering has slowed significantly relative to 2018-19, with only 4 newbuildings ordered so far in 2020 and all of them ordered against multi-year contracts, an encouraging development for the future supply and demand balance of LNG carriers.
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Tuesday, 02 June 20
CHINA TAIYUAN COAL TRANSACTION PRICE INDEX DOWN 0.86 PCT - XINHUA
China Taiyuan coal transaction price index stood at 123.95 points Monday, down 0.86 percent week on week.
The index, released by Chi ...
Tuesday, 02 June 20
THE HISTORIC DECLINE OF US COAL - WOOD MACKENZIE
The first commercial power plant in the US was Thomas Edison’s coal-fired Pearl Street station in lower Manhattan, which started operating in ...
Tuesday, 02 June 20
COAL INDIA'S MAY SALES DRIVEN SHARPLY LOWER BY SLUMP IN POWER DEMAND - REUTER
Coal India’s sales fell 23.3% in May as utilities refrained from purchases amid record stockpiles and tepid demand because of a nationwide lo ...
Tuesday, 02 June 20
TUAH TURANGGA AGUNG RECORDED 4.54 MILLION TONS OF COAL SALES IN THE FIRST FOUR MONTHS OF 2020
PT United Tractors Tbk through its subsidiary, PT Tuah Turangga Agung recorded 4.54 million tons of coal sales in the first four months of 2020, up ...
Tuesday, 02 June 20
SOURING SINO-AUSTRALIA TRADE RELATIONS - BALTIC EXCHANGE
Cooling relations between the commodity powerhouses of China and Australia may point to trade troubles ahead when the world emerges from the Covid- ...
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- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Australian Coal Association
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- The University of Queensland
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
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