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Friday, 08 May 20
LNG DEMAND FACED SEVERAL HEADWINDS IN THE FIRST QUARTER OF 2020 - GASLOG
 LNG demand faced several headwinds in the first quarter of 2020 including a warmer than average winter in the northern hemisphere, high inventory levels of natural gas and LNG in several of the largest end markets for LNG and the outbreak of COVID-19, the impact of which has had an uneven distribution around the world during the year to date. For example, Chinese demand was 15 million tonnes (“mt”) in the first quarter of 2020, a decrease of 5% over the first quarter of 2019, according to Poten, but apparent demand in April has increased year-on-year based on vessel tracking data, including several cargoes exported from the U.S., GasLog says in its latest financial report.
Gaslog further noted, meanwhile, demand from Northern Asia more broadly (Japan, China, South Korea and Taiwan) grew by approximately 1 mt in the first quarter or 3% year-over-year. In addition, demand from India grew by nearly 2 mt in the first quarter of 2020 (or 37%) as the country looked to take advantage of historically low gas prices, although apparent demand in April is likely to be lower year-on-year based on vessel tracking data. Finally, demand from Europe grew by over 4 mt (or 37%) as gas pricing favored coal-to-gas switching for power generation and LNG replaces indigenous gas production. In total, LNG demand was 98 mt in the first quarter of 2020, compared to 89 mt in the first quarter of 2019, or an increase of 10%.
Wood Mackenzie currently expects global LNG demand to grow 21 mt or 6% this year, slower than the 26 mt or 7% it anticipated earlier this year prior to the global outbreak of COVID-19. Nonetheless, the demand for LNG over the near-term continues to be uncertain as many LNG importing countries either continue to have in effect shelter-in-place orders which prevent the operation of businesses deemed to be “non-essential” or are in the early stages of reopening their economies. Consequently, measures of global economic activity have declined significantly from comparable periods in 2019. However, the longer-term outlook for LNG demand remains favorable with demand growth of 92 mt estimated over the 2019-2025 timeframe, or compound annual growth of approximately 4%, according to Wood Mackenzie.
According to GasLog's latest financial report, global LNG supply was approximately 98 mt in the first quarter of 2020, an increase of 10 mt over the first quarter of 2019 (or 11%), primarily due to new supply additions in the U.S. (Cameron T1 and T2, Freeport T1, T2 and T3 and Elba Island), according to estimates from Wood Mackenzie. LNG supply is estimated to grow by 22 mt this year as the third train of Cameron begins operations and recent capacity additions continue to increase production. Further ahead, approximately 97 mt of new LNG capacity is expected to begin production during 2021-2025. However, Wood Mackenzie expects the pace of new project sanctions to slow significantly in 2020 due to the uncertainties caused by the COVID-19 outbreak in long-term demand for LNG and low global energy prices, in particular crude oil prices due to oversupply following a collapse in oil demand due to the COVID-19 virus.
In the LNG shipping spot market, tri-fuel diesel electric vessel (“TFDE”) headline rates, as reported by Clarksons, averaged $57,000 per day in the first quarter of 2020, a decrease from the averages of $108,000 in the fourth quarter of 2019 and $59,500 in the first quarter of 2019. Headline spot rates for steam turbine propulsion (“Steam”) vessels averaged $40,000 per day in the first quarter of 2020, a decrease from the average of $78,000 per day in the fourth quarter of 2019 but approximately in line with the $39,000 per day observed in the first quarter of 2019. Slower than expected LNG demand growth due in part to the impact of COVID-19 (as detailed above), high global inventories of natural gas and LNG following a warmer than average winter in the Northern Hemisphere and limited opportunities for LNG arbitrage trading between Atlantic and Pacific basins impacted headline spot rates in the first quarter of 2020.
Clarksons currently assesses headline spot rates for TFDE and Steam LNG carriers at $32,500 per day and $23,000 per day, respectively. The COVID-19 outbreak has introduced significant uncertainty regarding demand for LNG, and consequently, demand for LNG shipping over the near term. The combined impact of the COVID-19 outbreak and normal seasonality may lead to greater volatility in spot rates and to lower utilization of vessels trading in the spot and short-term markets, in particular Steam vessels. In addition, global gas prices and gas price differentials remain near historic lows in the key markets of North Asia and Europe, limiting the opportunities for inter-basin arbitrage trading and likely reducing average voyage distances as well as potentially reducing global output of LNG over the near-term, particularly in the U.S., where a number of cargo deferrals and/or cancellations have been reported for this summer, said GasLog.
As of May 5, 2020, the orderbook totals 118 dedicated LNG carriers (>100,000 cbm), according to estimates from Poten, representing 22% of the on-the-water fleet. Of these, 74 vessels (or 63%) have multi-year charters. The pace of newbuild ordering has slowed significantly relative to 2018-19, with only 4 newbuildings ordered so far in 2020 and all of them ordered against multi-year contracts, an encouraging development for the future supply and demand balance of LNG carriers.
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Sunday, 07 June 20
A SCRUBBER FITTED 61,000 ULTRAMAX WAS FIXED DELIVERY PHILIPPINES TRIP VIA SOUTH AFRICA REDELIVERY VIETNAM AT $9,500 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The small flicker of hope at the beginning of this week has kindled a small fire under the Capesize market. At a paltry $3369 from the ...
Saturday, 06 June 20
KOREA SOUTH-EAST POWER CO INVITED COAL BIDS FOR MIN 5600 NCV COAL
COALspot.com: South Korea’s KOREA SOUTH-EAST POWER CO., LTD. (KOEN) has issued an international tender for 270,000 Tons (MT) min. 5600 NCV co ...
Friday, 05 June 20
COAL INDIA ESTIMATES PRODUCTION GROWTH BY OVERBURDEN REMOVAL - FINANCIAL EXPRESS
PSU miner Coal India (CIL) has now limited mining only to Overburden Removal (OBR) with falling demand of coal. The mining behemoth is now keeping ...
Friday, 05 June 20
U.S. SANCTIONS COMPLIANCE GUIDANCE RELEASED FOR THE GLOBAL MARITIME, ENERGY AND METALS SECTORS - AKIN GUMP
Key Points
On May 14, 2020, OFAC, the Department of State and the U.S. Coast Guard jointly released guidance for persons involved in the ma ...
Friday, 05 June 20
IN THE FIRST 5 MONTHS OF 2020 AUSTRALIA SHIPPED 6.8 MLN TONNES TO VIETNAM - BANCHERO COSTA
In the first 5 months of 2020, global seaborne coal trade declined by as much as -8% year-on-year, according to vessel tracking data from Ref ...
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- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Australian Coal Association
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- The University of Queensland
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
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