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Friday, 08 May 20
LNG DEMAND FACED SEVERAL HEADWINDS IN THE FIRST QUARTER OF 2020 - GASLOG
 LNG demand faced several headwinds in the first quarter of 2020 including a warmer than average winter in the northern hemisphere, high inventory levels of natural gas and LNG in several of the largest end markets for LNG and the outbreak of COVID-19, the impact of which has had an uneven distribution around the world during the year to date. For example, Chinese demand was 15 million tonnes (“mt”) in the first quarter of 2020, a decrease of 5% over the first quarter of 2019, according to Poten, but apparent demand in April has increased year-on-year based on vessel tracking data, including several cargoes exported from the U.S., GasLog says in its latest financial report.
Gaslog further noted, meanwhile, demand from Northern Asia more broadly (Japan, China, South Korea and Taiwan) grew by approximately 1 mt in the first quarter or 3% year-over-year. In addition, demand from India grew by nearly 2 mt in the first quarter of 2020 (or 37%) as the country looked to take advantage of historically low gas prices, although apparent demand in April is likely to be lower year-on-year based on vessel tracking data. Finally, demand from Europe grew by over 4 mt (or 37%) as gas pricing favored coal-to-gas switching for power generation and LNG replaces indigenous gas production. In total, LNG demand was 98 mt in the first quarter of 2020, compared to 89 mt in the first quarter of 2019, or an increase of 10%.
Wood Mackenzie currently expects global LNG demand to grow 21 mt or 6% this year, slower than the 26 mt or 7% it anticipated earlier this year prior to the global outbreak of COVID-19. Nonetheless, the demand for LNG over the near-term continues to be uncertain as many LNG importing countries either continue to have in effect shelter-in-place orders which prevent the operation of businesses deemed to be “non-essential” or are in the early stages of reopening their economies. Consequently, measures of global economic activity have declined significantly from comparable periods in 2019. However, the longer-term outlook for LNG demand remains favorable with demand growth of 92 mt estimated over the 2019-2025 timeframe, or compound annual growth of approximately 4%, according to Wood Mackenzie.
According to GasLog's latest financial report, global LNG supply was approximately 98 mt in the first quarter of 2020, an increase of 10 mt over the first quarter of 2019 (or 11%), primarily due to new supply additions in the U.S. (Cameron T1 and T2, Freeport T1, T2 and T3 and Elba Island), according to estimates from Wood Mackenzie. LNG supply is estimated to grow by 22 mt this year as the third train of Cameron begins operations and recent capacity additions continue to increase production. Further ahead, approximately 97 mt of new LNG capacity is expected to begin production during 2021-2025. However, Wood Mackenzie expects the pace of new project sanctions to slow significantly in 2020 due to the uncertainties caused by the COVID-19 outbreak in long-term demand for LNG and low global energy prices, in particular crude oil prices due to oversupply following a collapse in oil demand due to the COVID-19 virus.
In the LNG shipping spot market, tri-fuel diesel electric vessel (“TFDE”) headline rates, as reported by Clarksons, averaged $57,000 per day in the first quarter of 2020, a decrease from the averages of $108,000 in the fourth quarter of 2019 and $59,500 in the first quarter of 2019. Headline spot rates for steam turbine propulsion (“Steam”) vessels averaged $40,000 per day in the first quarter of 2020, a decrease from the average of $78,000 per day in the fourth quarter of 2019 but approximately in line with the $39,000 per day observed in the first quarter of 2019. Slower than expected LNG demand growth due in part to the impact of COVID-19 (as detailed above), high global inventories of natural gas and LNG following a warmer than average winter in the Northern Hemisphere and limited opportunities for LNG arbitrage trading between Atlantic and Pacific basins impacted headline spot rates in the first quarter of 2020.
Clarksons currently assesses headline spot rates for TFDE and Steam LNG carriers at $32,500 per day and $23,000 per day, respectively. The COVID-19 outbreak has introduced significant uncertainty regarding demand for LNG, and consequently, demand for LNG shipping over the near term. The combined impact of the COVID-19 outbreak and normal seasonality may lead to greater volatility in spot rates and to lower utilization of vessels trading in the spot and short-term markets, in particular Steam vessels. In addition, global gas prices and gas price differentials remain near historic lows in the key markets of North Asia and Europe, limiting the opportunities for inter-basin arbitrage trading and likely reducing average voyage distances as well as potentially reducing global output of LNG over the near-term, particularly in the U.S., where a number of cargo deferrals and/or cancellations have been reported for this summer, said GasLog.
As of May 5, 2020, the orderbook totals 118 dedicated LNG carriers (>100,000 cbm), according to estimates from Poten, representing 22% of the on-the-water fleet. Of these, 74 vessels (or 63%) have multi-year charters. The pace of newbuild ordering has slowed significantly relative to 2018-19, with only 4 newbuildings ordered so far in 2020 and all of them ordered against multi-year contracts, an encouraging development for the future supply and demand balance of LNG carriers.
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Thursday, 11 June 20
JAN-MAY, INDONESIA SHIPPED 175.15 MILLION TONS OF COAL TO ITS OVERSEAS BUYERS
Indonesia's coal production for the first 5 months of this year have reached 228 million tons. January – May 2020, Indonesia shipped US$ ...
Thursday, 11 June 20
CHINA'S BENCHMARK POWER COAL PRICE EDGES UP - XINHUA
China’s benchmark power coal price rose slightly during the past week.
The Bohai-Rim Steam-Coal Price Index (BSPI), a gauge of ...
Wednesday, 10 June 20
OPEC+ CUTS EXTENSION TO ACCELERATE MARKET REBALANCING - FITCH RATINGS
Fitch Ratings-London-08 June 2020: The OPEC+ agreement to extend by one month record oil production cuts should accelerate market rebalancing, Fitc ...
Wednesday, 10 June 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
In contrast to the economic projections of the past two years for the first half of 2020, the oil & gas industry and those involved in it faced ...
Wednesday, 10 June 20
CHINA TAIYUAN COAL TRANSACTION PRICE INDEX DOWN 0.19 PCT - XINHUA
China Taiyuan coal transaction price index stood at 123.71 points Monday, down 0.19 percent week on week.
The index, released by Chi ...
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- MS Steel International - UAE
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- The University of Queensland
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Australian Coal Association
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Planning Commission, India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Economic Council, Georgia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
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