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Friday, 08 May 20
LNG DEMAND FACED SEVERAL HEADWINDS IN THE FIRST QUARTER OF 2020 - GASLOG
 LNG demand faced several headwinds in the first quarter of 2020 including a warmer than average winter in the northern hemisphere, high inventory levels of natural gas and LNG in several of the largest end markets for LNG and the outbreak of COVID-19, the impact of which has had an uneven distribution around the world during the year to date. For example, Chinese demand was 15 million tonnes (“mt”) in the first quarter of 2020, a decrease of 5% over the first quarter of 2019, according to Poten, but apparent demand in April has increased year-on-year based on vessel tracking data, including several cargoes exported from the U.S., GasLog says in its latest financial report.
Gaslog further noted, meanwhile, demand from Northern Asia more broadly (Japan, China, South Korea and Taiwan) grew by approximately 1 mt in the first quarter or 3% year-over-year. In addition, demand from India grew by nearly 2 mt in the first quarter of 2020 (or 37%) as the country looked to take advantage of historically low gas prices, although apparent demand in April is likely to be lower year-on-year based on vessel tracking data. Finally, demand from Europe grew by over 4 mt (or 37%) as gas pricing favored coal-to-gas switching for power generation and LNG replaces indigenous gas production. In total, LNG demand was 98 mt in the first quarter of 2020, compared to 89 mt in the first quarter of 2019, or an increase of 10%.
Wood Mackenzie currently expects global LNG demand to grow 21 mt or 6% this year, slower than the 26 mt or 7% it anticipated earlier this year prior to the global outbreak of COVID-19. Nonetheless, the demand for LNG over the near-term continues to be uncertain as many LNG importing countries either continue to have in effect shelter-in-place orders which prevent the operation of businesses deemed to be “non-essential” or are in the early stages of reopening their economies. Consequently, measures of global economic activity have declined significantly from comparable periods in 2019. However, the longer-term outlook for LNG demand remains favorable with demand growth of 92 mt estimated over the 2019-2025 timeframe, or compound annual growth of approximately 4%, according to Wood Mackenzie.
According to GasLog's latest financial report, global LNG supply was approximately 98 mt in the first quarter of 2020, an increase of 10 mt over the first quarter of 2019 (or 11%), primarily due to new supply additions in the U.S. (Cameron T1 and T2, Freeport T1, T2 and T3 and Elba Island), according to estimates from Wood Mackenzie. LNG supply is estimated to grow by 22 mt this year as the third train of Cameron begins operations and recent capacity additions continue to increase production. Further ahead, approximately 97 mt of new LNG capacity is expected to begin production during 2021-2025. However, Wood Mackenzie expects the pace of new project sanctions to slow significantly in 2020 due to the uncertainties caused by the COVID-19 outbreak in long-term demand for LNG and low global energy prices, in particular crude oil prices due to oversupply following a collapse in oil demand due to the COVID-19 virus.
In the LNG shipping spot market, tri-fuel diesel electric vessel (“TFDE”) headline rates, as reported by Clarksons, averaged $57,000 per day in the first quarter of 2020, a decrease from the averages of $108,000 in the fourth quarter of 2019 and $59,500 in the first quarter of 2019. Headline spot rates for steam turbine propulsion (“Steam”) vessels averaged $40,000 per day in the first quarter of 2020, a decrease from the average of $78,000 per day in the fourth quarter of 2019 but approximately in line with the $39,000 per day observed in the first quarter of 2019. Slower than expected LNG demand growth due in part to the impact of COVID-19 (as detailed above), high global inventories of natural gas and LNG following a warmer than average winter in the Northern Hemisphere and limited opportunities for LNG arbitrage trading between Atlantic and Pacific basins impacted headline spot rates in the first quarter of 2020.
Clarksons currently assesses headline spot rates for TFDE and Steam LNG carriers at $32,500 per day and $23,000 per day, respectively. The COVID-19 outbreak has introduced significant uncertainty regarding demand for LNG, and consequently, demand for LNG shipping over the near term. The combined impact of the COVID-19 outbreak and normal seasonality may lead to greater volatility in spot rates and to lower utilization of vessels trading in the spot and short-term markets, in particular Steam vessels. In addition, global gas prices and gas price differentials remain near historic lows in the key markets of North Asia and Europe, limiting the opportunities for inter-basin arbitrage trading and likely reducing average voyage distances as well as potentially reducing global output of LNG over the near-term, particularly in the U.S., where a number of cargo deferrals and/or cancellations have been reported for this summer, said GasLog.
As of May 5, 2020, the orderbook totals 118 dedicated LNG carriers (>100,000 cbm), according to estimates from Poten, representing 22% of the on-the-water fleet. Of these, 74 vessels (or 63%) have multi-year charters. The pace of newbuild ordering has slowed significantly relative to 2018-19, with only 4 newbuildings ordered so far in 2020 and all of them ordered against multi-year contracts, an encouraging development for the future supply and demand balance of LNG carriers.
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Tuesday, 09 June 20
BUNKER SUPPLY CONTRACTS - KEY CONSIDERATIONS FOR THE BUYER - GARD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Regardless of whether a buyer purchases fuel directly from physical suppliers or via brokers or traders and whether sale ...
Tuesday, 09 June 20
INDIA: COAL IMPORT DROPS BY 20% TO NEARLY 19 MILLION TONNES IN MAY, SAYS REPORT - HINDUSTAN TIMES
The country’s coal import dropped by 20 per cent to 18.93 million tonnes (MT) last month, industry data showed.
The government ...
Monday, 08 June 20
WOOD MACKENZIE: THE INDISPENSABLE OPEC+
Rumours of “the death of OPEC” have been circulating for almost as long as the organisation has existed. Just three years after the car ...
Monday, 08 June 20
CHINA'S COAL IMPORTS FALL NEARLY 20% IN MAY EVEN AS DEMAND RISES - REUTERS
China’s coal imports in May fell nearly 20% compared with a year earlier even as demand recovered at power plants and industrial users, custo ...
Monday, 08 June 20
JUNE 2020 INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE HIT US$ 52.98 A TON, ITS LOWEST LEVEL SINCE AT LEAST AUGUST 2016
COALspot.com: The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources of the Republic of Indonesia has revised down again the benchmark price of Indonesian th ...
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- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Australian Coal Association
- Parliament of New Zealand
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- The University of Queensland
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
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