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Friday, 08 May 20
LNG DEMAND FACED SEVERAL HEADWINDS IN THE FIRST QUARTER OF 2020 - GASLOG
 LNG demand faced several headwinds in the first quarter of 2020 including a warmer than average winter in the northern hemisphere, high inventory levels of natural gas and LNG in several of the largest end markets for LNG and the outbreak of COVID-19, the impact of which has had an uneven distribution around the world during the year to date. For example, Chinese demand was 15 million tonnes (“mt”) in the first quarter of 2020, a decrease of 5% over the first quarter of 2019, according to Poten, but apparent demand in April has increased year-on-year based on vessel tracking data, including several cargoes exported from the U.S., GasLog says in its latest financial report.
Gaslog further noted, meanwhile, demand from Northern Asia more broadly (Japan, China, South Korea and Taiwan) grew by approximately 1 mt in the first quarter or 3% year-over-year. In addition, demand from India grew by nearly 2 mt in the first quarter of 2020 (or 37%) as the country looked to take advantage of historically low gas prices, although apparent demand in April is likely to be lower year-on-year based on vessel tracking data. Finally, demand from Europe grew by over 4 mt (or 37%) as gas pricing favored coal-to-gas switching for power generation and LNG replaces indigenous gas production. In total, LNG demand was 98 mt in the first quarter of 2020, compared to 89 mt in the first quarter of 2019, or an increase of 10%.
Wood Mackenzie currently expects global LNG demand to grow 21 mt or 6% this year, slower than the 26 mt or 7% it anticipated earlier this year prior to the global outbreak of COVID-19. Nonetheless, the demand for LNG over the near-term continues to be uncertain as many LNG importing countries either continue to have in effect shelter-in-place orders which prevent the operation of businesses deemed to be “non-essential” or are in the early stages of reopening their economies. Consequently, measures of global economic activity have declined significantly from comparable periods in 2019. However, the longer-term outlook for LNG demand remains favorable with demand growth of 92 mt estimated over the 2019-2025 timeframe, or compound annual growth of approximately 4%, according to Wood Mackenzie.
According to GasLog's latest financial report, global LNG supply was approximately 98 mt in the first quarter of 2020, an increase of 10 mt over the first quarter of 2019 (or 11%), primarily due to new supply additions in the U.S. (Cameron T1 and T2, Freeport T1, T2 and T3 and Elba Island), according to estimates from Wood Mackenzie. LNG supply is estimated to grow by 22 mt this year as the third train of Cameron begins operations and recent capacity additions continue to increase production. Further ahead, approximately 97 mt of new LNG capacity is expected to begin production during 2021-2025. However, Wood Mackenzie expects the pace of new project sanctions to slow significantly in 2020 due to the uncertainties caused by the COVID-19 outbreak in long-term demand for LNG and low global energy prices, in particular crude oil prices due to oversupply following a collapse in oil demand due to the COVID-19 virus.
In the LNG shipping spot market, tri-fuel diesel electric vessel (“TFDE”) headline rates, as reported by Clarksons, averaged $57,000 per day in the first quarter of 2020, a decrease from the averages of $108,000 in the fourth quarter of 2019 and $59,500 in the first quarter of 2019. Headline spot rates for steam turbine propulsion (“Steam”) vessels averaged $40,000 per day in the first quarter of 2020, a decrease from the average of $78,000 per day in the fourth quarter of 2019 but approximately in line with the $39,000 per day observed in the first quarter of 2019. Slower than expected LNG demand growth due in part to the impact of COVID-19 (as detailed above), high global inventories of natural gas and LNG following a warmer than average winter in the Northern Hemisphere and limited opportunities for LNG arbitrage trading between Atlantic and Pacific basins impacted headline spot rates in the first quarter of 2020.
Clarksons currently assesses headline spot rates for TFDE and Steam LNG carriers at $32,500 per day and $23,000 per day, respectively. The COVID-19 outbreak has introduced significant uncertainty regarding demand for LNG, and consequently, demand for LNG shipping over the near term. The combined impact of the COVID-19 outbreak and normal seasonality may lead to greater volatility in spot rates and to lower utilization of vessels trading in the spot and short-term markets, in particular Steam vessels. In addition, global gas prices and gas price differentials remain near historic lows in the key markets of North Asia and Europe, limiting the opportunities for inter-basin arbitrage trading and likely reducing average voyage distances as well as potentially reducing global output of LNG over the near-term, particularly in the U.S., where a number of cargo deferrals and/or cancellations have been reported for this summer, said GasLog.
As of May 5, 2020, the orderbook totals 118 dedicated LNG carriers (>100,000 cbm), according to estimates from Poten, representing 22% of the on-the-water fleet. Of these, 74 vessels (or 63%) have multi-year charters. The pace of newbuild ordering has slowed significantly relative to 2018-19, with only 4 newbuildings ordered so far in 2020 and all of them ordered against multi-year contracts, an encouraging development for the future supply and demand balance of LNG carriers.
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Tuesday, 16 June 20
SHALE SHOCKED - WOOD MACKENZIE
Capturing shut-ins in real time
Oil markets are searching for balance as the world reflects on the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. ...
Sunday, 14 June 20
INDONESIAN COAL WAS STILL IN DEMAND; A 52,000-DWT SUPRAMAX FIXING DELIVERY CJK FOR A ROUND VOYAGE VIA INDONESIA AT $6,250 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The Capesize market made new highs for the year this week after strong iron ore demand to the far east continued to develop in the mar ...
Friday, 12 June 20
CHINA CURBS COAL IMPORTS AFTER 5 MONTHS OF RECORD INFLOWS - SOURCES: REUTERS
China has stepped up customs checks for coal imports, leading to lengthy processing delays at ports, four sources familiar with the matter said, as ...
Friday, 12 June 20
COAL INDIA LIMITED SET FOR MARKETING DRIVE TO CREATE DEMAND - FINANCIAL EXPRESS
State-run miner Coal India (CIL), which is primarily focused on supplying coal to the power sector, is now reorienting its marketing to create dema ...
Friday, 12 June 20
MOODY'S REVISES BRENT OIL PRICE OUTLOOK TO $35/BARREL IN 2020 - TASS
Low oil prices are likely to exert the highest pressure on Iraq, Oman and Kuwait due to the limited space for the fiscal policy pursuit and higher ...
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- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Australian Coal Association
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- The University of Queensland
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
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