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Friday, 08 May 20
LNG DEMAND FACED SEVERAL HEADWINDS IN THE FIRST QUARTER OF 2020 - GASLOG
 LNG demand faced several headwinds in the first quarter of 2020 including a warmer than average winter in the northern hemisphere, high inventory levels of natural gas and LNG in several of the largest end markets for LNG and the outbreak of COVID-19, the impact of which has had an uneven distribution around the world during the year to date. For example, Chinese demand was 15 million tonnes (“mt”) in the first quarter of 2020, a decrease of 5% over the first quarter of 2019, according to Poten, but apparent demand in April has increased year-on-year based on vessel tracking data, including several cargoes exported from the U.S., GasLog says in its latest financial report.
Gaslog further noted, meanwhile, demand from Northern Asia more broadly (Japan, China, South Korea and Taiwan) grew by approximately 1 mt in the first quarter or 3% year-over-year. In addition, demand from India grew by nearly 2 mt in the first quarter of 2020 (or 37%) as the country looked to take advantage of historically low gas prices, although apparent demand in April is likely to be lower year-on-year based on vessel tracking data. Finally, demand from Europe grew by over 4 mt (or 37%) as gas pricing favored coal-to-gas switching for power generation and LNG replaces indigenous gas production. In total, LNG demand was 98 mt in the first quarter of 2020, compared to 89 mt in the first quarter of 2019, or an increase of 10%.
Wood Mackenzie currently expects global LNG demand to grow 21 mt or 6% this year, slower than the 26 mt or 7% it anticipated earlier this year prior to the global outbreak of COVID-19. Nonetheless, the demand for LNG over the near-term continues to be uncertain as many LNG importing countries either continue to have in effect shelter-in-place orders which prevent the operation of businesses deemed to be “non-essential” or are in the early stages of reopening their economies. Consequently, measures of global economic activity have declined significantly from comparable periods in 2019. However, the longer-term outlook for LNG demand remains favorable with demand growth of 92 mt estimated over the 2019-2025 timeframe, or compound annual growth of approximately 4%, according to Wood Mackenzie.
According to GasLog's latest financial report, global LNG supply was approximately 98 mt in the first quarter of 2020, an increase of 10 mt over the first quarter of 2019 (or 11%), primarily due to new supply additions in the U.S. (Cameron T1 and T2, Freeport T1, T2 and T3 and Elba Island), according to estimates from Wood Mackenzie. LNG supply is estimated to grow by 22 mt this year as the third train of Cameron begins operations and recent capacity additions continue to increase production. Further ahead, approximately 97 mt of new LNG capacity is expected to begin production during 2021-2025. However, Wood Mackenzie expects the pace of new project sanctions to slow significantly in 2020 due to the uncertainties caused by the COVID-19 outbreak in long-term demand for LNG and low global energy prices, in particular crude oil prices due to oversupply following a collapse in oil demand due to the COVID-19 virus.
In the LNG shipping spot market, tri-fuel diesel electric vessel (“TFDE”) headline rates, as reported by Clarksons, averaged $57,000 per day in the first quarter of 2020, a decrease from the averages of $108,000 in the fourth quarter of 2019 and $59,500 in the first quarter of 2019. Headline spot rates for steam turbine propulsion (“Steam”) vessels averaged $40,000 per day in the first quarter of 2020, a decrease from the average of $78,000 per day in the fourth quarter of 2019 but approximately in line with the $39,000 per day observed in the first quarter of 2019. Slower than expected LNG demand growth due in part to the impact of COVID-19 (as detailed above), high global inventories of natural gas and LNG following a warmer than average winter in the Northern Hemisphere and limited opportunities for LNG arbitrage trading between Atlantic and Pacific basins impacted headline spot rates in the first quarter of 2020.
Clarksons currently assesses headline spot rates for TFDE and Steam LNG carriers at $32,500 per day and $23,000 per day, respectively. The COVID-19 outbreak has introduced significant uncertainty regarding demand for LNG, and consequently, demand for LNG shipping over the near term. The combined impact of the COVID-19 outbreak and normal seasonality may lead to greater volatility in spot rates and to lower utilization of vessels trading in the spot and short-term markets, in particular Steam vessels. In addition, global gas prices and gas price differentials remain near historic lows in the key markets of North Asia and Europe, limiting the opportunities for inter-basin arbitrage trading and likely reducing average voyage distances as well as potentially reducing global output of LNG over the near-term, particularly in the U.S., where a number of cargo deferrals and/or cancellations have been reported for this summer, said GasLog.
As of May 5, 2020, the orderbook totals 118 dedicated LNG carriers (>100,000 cbm), according to estimates from Poten, representing 22% of the on-the-water fleet. Of these, 74 vessels (or 63%) have multi-year charters. The pace of newbuild ordering has slowed significantly relative to 2018-19, with only 4 newbuildings ordered so far in 2020 and all of them ordered against multi-year contracts, an encouraging development for the future supply and demand balance of LNG carriers.
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Saturday, 20 June 20
NO ESCAPING GLOBAL TRADE SLUMP - BALTIC EXCHANGE
Those hoping for a decent recovery in trade in the second half of the year should prepare for disappointment.
New data from the Unit ...
Friday, 19 June 20
INDIA'S COAL CONSUMPTION GROWTH IN 2019 SLOWEST SINCE 2001: BP STATS REVIEW - HINDU BUSINESS LINE
Growth in global energy markets slowed in 2019 in line with weaker economic growth, according to the bp Statistical Review of World Energy 2020. Th ...
Friday, 19 June 20
KOWEPO TO IMPORT 1,050,000 MT OF MIN 5300 NCV COAL FOR THREE YEARS
COALspot.com: Korera Western Power Co., Ltd. (KOWEPO) has issued an International tender for Total 1,050k MT Min.5,300 kcal/kg NCV coal for t ...
Thursday, 18 June 20
INDIA: GOVT'S PLAN TO CUT COAL IMPORT GOES FOR A TOSS AS FY20 BREAKS LOGISTICS CHAIN; LOCAL OUTPUT STAGNANT - FINANCIAL EXPRESS
Weak logistics support and disrupted supply chain towards the end of the last financial year 2019-20 hit the government’s plan to cut coal im ...
Thursday, 18 June 20
INDIA: THERMAL PLANTS TO OPERATE BELOW 53% CAPACITY IN FY21 AS POWER DEMAND DIPS - BUSINESS STANDARD
The Plant Load Factor (PLF) of thermal power stations across the country is projected to dip below 53 per cent in this fiscal. Muted power demand f ...
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- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Australian Coal Association
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
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