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Friday, 08 May 20
LNG DEMAND FACED SEVERAL HEADWINDS IN THE FIRST QUARTER OF 2020 - GASLOG
 LNG demand faced several headwinds in the first quarter of 2020 including a warmer than average winter in the northern hemisphere, high inventory levels of natural gas and LNG in several of the largest end markets for LNG and the outbreak of COVID-19, the impact of which has had an uneven distribution around the world during the year to date. For example, Chinese demand was 15 million tonnes (“mt”) in the first quarter of 2020, a decrease of 5% over the first quarter of 2019, according to Poten, but apparent demand in April has increased year-on-year based on vessel tracking data, including several cargoes exported from the U.S., GasLog says in its latest financial report.
Gaslog further noted, meanwhile, demand from Northern Asia more broadly (Japan, China, South Korea and Taiwan) grew by approximately 1 mt in the first quarter or 3% year-over-year. In addition, demand from India grew by nearly 2 mt in the first quarter of 2020 (or 37%) as the country looked to take advantage of historically low gas prices, although apparent demand in April is likely to be lower year-on-year based on vessel tracking data. Finally, demand from Europe grew by over 4 mt (or 37%) as gas pricing favored coal-to-gas switching for power generation and LNG replaces indigenous gas production. In total, LNG demand was 98 mt in the first quarter of 2020, compared to 89 mt in the first quarter of 2019, or an increase of 10%.
Wood Mackenzie currently expects global LNG demand to grow 21 mt or 6% this year, slower than the 26 mt or 7% it anticipated earlier this year prior to the global outbreak of COVID-19. Nonetheless, the demand for LNG over the near-term continues to be uncertain as many LNG importing countries either continue to have in effect shelter-in-place orders which prevent the operation of businesses deemed to be “non-essential” or are in the early stages of reopening their economies. Consequently, measures of global economic activity have declined significantly from comparable periods in 2019. However, the longer-term outlook for LNG demand remains favorable with demand growth of 92 mt estimated over the 2019-2025 timeframe, or compound annual growth of approximately 4%, according to Wood Mackenzie.
According to GasLog's latest financial report, global LNG supply was approximately 98 mt in the first quarter of 2020, an increase of 10 mt over the first quarter of 2019 (or 11%), primarily due to new supply additions in the U.S. (Cameron T1 and T2, Freeport T1, T2 and T3 and Elba Island), according to estimates from Wood Mackenzie. LNG supply is estimated to grow by 22 mt this year as the third train of Cameron begins operations and recent capacity additions continue to increase production. Further ahead, approximately 97 mt of new LNG capacity is expected to begin production during 2021-2025. However, Wood Mackenzie expects the pace of new project sanctions to slow significantly in 2020 due to the uncertainties caused by the COVID-19 outbreak in long-term demand for LNG and low global energy prices, in particular crude oil prices due to oversupply following a collapse in oil demand due to the COVID-19 virus.
In the LNG shipping spot market, tri-fuel diesel electric vessel (“TFDE”) headline rates, as reported by Clarksons, averaged $57,000 per day in the first quarter of 2020, a decrease from the averages of $108,000 in the fourth quarter of 2019 and $59,500 in the first quarter of 2019. Headline spot rates for steam turbine propulsion (“Steam”) vessels averaged $40,000 per day in the first quarter of 2020, a decrease from the average of $78,000 per day in the fourth quarter of 2019 but approximately in line with the $39,000 per day observed in the first quarter of 2019. Slower than expected LNG demand growth due in part to the impact of COVID-19 (as detailed above), high global inventories of natural gas and LNG following a warmer than average winter in the Northern Hemisphere and limited opportunities for LNG arbitrage trading between Atlantic and Pacific basins impacted headline spot rates in the first quarter of 2020.
Clarksons currently assesses headline spot rates for TFDE and Steam LNG carriers at $32,500 per day and $23,000 per day, respectively. The COVID-19 outbreak has introduced significant uncertainty regarding demand for LNG, and consequently, demand for LNG shipping over the near term. The combined impact of the COVID-19 outbreak and normal seasonality may lead to greater volatility in spot rates and to lower utilization of vessels trading in the spot and short-term markets, in particular Steam vessels. In addition, global gas prices and gas price differentials remain near historic lows in the key markets of North Asia and Europe, limiting the opportunities for inter-basin arbitrage trading and likely reducing average voyage distances as well as potentially reducing global output of LNG over the near-term, particularly in the U.S., where a number of cargo deferrals and/or cancellations have been reported for this summer, said GasLog.
As of May 5, 2020, the orderbook totals 118 dedicated LNG carriers (>100,000 cbm), according to estimates from Poten, representing 22% of the on-the-water fleet. Of these, 74 vessels (or 63%) have multi-year charters. The pace of newbuild ordering has slowed significantly relative to 2018-19, with only 4 newbuildings ordered so far in 2020 and all of them ordered against multi-year contracts, an encouraging development for the future supply and demand balance of LNG carriers.
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Wednesday, 24 June 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The World Bank estimates that the global economy will fall by 5.2% this year, underlining that the Covid-19 pandemic has had rapid and massive cons ...
Tuesday, 23 June 20
COVID-19 COULD CAUSE A BOOM IN COAL POWER - RYSTAD ENERGY | OILPRICE
COVID-19 has not only impacted the energy industry’s revenues but also its infrastructure development.
The delay of new natural gas ...
Tuesday, 23 June 20
CHINA'S COAL OUTPUT UP 0.9 PCT IN JANUARY-MAY: XINHUA
Output of raw coal in China rose 0.9 percent year on year to 1.47 billion tonnes in the first five months of this year, official data showed.
& ...
Monday, 22 June 20
KAMSARMAX TYPES REGULARLY HIT THE $9,000 PER DAY LEVEL FOR INDONESIAN COAL RUN TO CHINA, BALTIC BRIEFING SAYS
Capesize
The Capesize market trajectory this week has been one of the steepest rallies the sector has experienced. Opening at $12,410, the sect ...
Saturday, 20 June 20
WORLD OIL DEMAND IS PROJECTED TO DECREASE BY 9.1 MB/D IN 2020 - OPEC
Crude Oil Price Movements
Spot crude oil prices rebounded in May from low levels registered a month earlier, as physical market fundamentals im ...
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- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- The University of Queensland
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
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