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Friday, 08 May 20
LNG DEMAND FACED SEVERAL HEADWINDS IN THE FIRST QUARTER OF 2020 - GASLOG
 LNG demand faced several headwinds in the first quarter of 2020 including a warmer than average winter in the northern hemisphere, high inventory levels of natural gas and LNG in several of the largest end markets for LNG and the outbreak of COVID-19, the impact of which has had an uneven distribution around the world during the year to date. For example, Chinese demand was 15 million tonnes (“mt”) in the first quarter of 2020, a decrease of 5% over the first quarter of 2019, according to Poten, but apparent demand in April has increased year-on-year based on vessel tracking data, including several cargoes exported from the U.S., GasLog says in its latest financial report.
Gaslog further noted, meanwhile, demand from Northern Asia more broadly (Japan, China, South Korea and Taiwan) grew by approximately 1 mt in the first quarter or 3% year-over-year. In addition, demand from India grew by nearly 2 mt in the first quarter of 2020 (or 37%) as the country looked to take advantage of historically low gas prices, although apparent demand in April is likely to be lower year-on-year based on vessel tracking data. Finally, demand from Europe grew by over 4 mt (or 37%) as gas pricing favored coal-to-gas switching for power generation and LNG replaces indigenous gas production. In total, LNG demand was 98 mt in the first quarter of 2020, compared to 89 mt in the first quarter of 2019, or an increase of 10%.
Wood Mackenzie currently expects global LNG demand to grow 21 mt or 6% this year, slower than the 26 mt or 7% it anticipated earlier this year prior to the global outbreak of COVID-19. Nonetheless, the demand for LNG over the near-term continues to be uncertain as many LNG importing countries either continue to have in effect shelter-in-place orders which prevent the operation of businesses deemed to be “non-essential” or are in the early stages of reopening their economies. Consequently, measures of global economic activity have declined significantly from comparable periods in 2019. However, the longer-term outlook for LNG demand remains favorable with demand growth of 92 mt estimated over the 2019-2025 timeframe, or compound annual growth of approximately 4%, according to Wood Mackenzie.
According to GasLog's latest financial report, global LNG supply was approximately 98 mt in the first quarter of 2020, an increase of 10 mt over the first quarter of 2019 (or 11%), primarily due to new supply additions in the U.S. (Cameron T1 and T2, Freeport T1, T2 and T3 and Elba Island), according to estimates from Wood Mackenzie. LNG supply is estimated to grow by 22 mt this year as the third train of Cameron begins operations and recent capacity additions continue to increase production. Further ahead, approximately 97 mt of new LNG capacity is expected to begin production during 2021-2025. However, Wood Mackenzie expects the pace of new project sanctions to slow significantly in 2020 due to the uncertainties caused by the COVID-19 outbreak in long-term demand for LNG and low global energy prices, in particular crude oil prices due to oversupply following a collapse in oil demand due to the COVID-19 virus.
In the LNG shipping spot market, tri-fuel diesel electric vessel (“TFDE”) headline rates, as reported by Clarksons, averaged $57,000 per day in the first quarter of 2020, a decrease from the averages of $108,000 in the fourth quarter of 2019 and $59,500 in the first quarter of 2019. Headline spot rates for steam turbine propulsion (“Steam”) vessels averaged $40,000 per day in the first quarter of 2020, a decrease from the average of $78,000 per day in the fourth quarter of 2019 but approximately in line with the $39,000 per day observed in the first quarter of 2019. Slower than expected LNG demand growth due in part to the impact of COVID-19 (as detailed above), high global inventories of natural gas and LNG following a warmer than average winter in the Northern Hemisphere and limited opportunities for LNG arbitrage trading between Atlantic and Pacific basins impacted headline spot rates in the first quarter of 2020.
Clarksons currently assesses headline spot rates for TFDE and Steam LNG carriers at $32,500 per day and $23,000 per day, respectively. The COVID-19 outbreak has introduced significant uncertainty regarding demand for LNG, and consequently, demand for LNG shipping over the near term. The combined impact of the COVID-19 outbreak and normal seasonality may lead to greater volatility in spot rates and to lower utilization of vessels trading in the spot and short-term markets, in particular Steam vessels. In addition, global gas prices and gas price differentials remain near historic lows in the key markets of North Asia and Europe, limiting the opportunities for inter-basin arbitrage trading and likely reducing average voyage distances as well as potentially reducing global output of LNG over the near-term, particularly in the U.S., where a number of cargo deferrals and/or cancellations have been reported for this summer, said GasLog.
As of May 5, 2020, the orderbook totals 118 dedicated LNG carriers (>100,000 cbm), according to estimates from Poten, representing 22% of the on-the-water fleet. Of these, 74 vessels (or 63%) have multi-year charters. The pace of newbuild ordering has slowed significantly relative to 2018-19, with only 4 newbuildings ordered so far in 2020 and all of them ordered against multi-year contracts, an encouraging development for the future supply and demand balance of LNG carriers.
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Monday, 29 June 20
CHINA COAL IMPORT OUTLOOK: MANY MOVING PARTS, FORECAST TO FALL 10% YOY - GHEE PEH | IEEFA
China’s coal demand declined in the first quarter of 2020. According to the China National Coal Association, the country consumed 870mt in th ...
Monday, 29 June 20
ULTRAMAX: A 58,000 FIXING DELIVERY SINGAPORE TRIP, VIA EAST COAST INDIA, REDELIVERY CHINA IN THE LOW $12,000S - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
As the halfway mark of 2020 arrives, the capesize market is making new highs for the year. From persistent lows earlier caused by a ba ...
Saturday, 27 June 20
CHINA'S BENCHMARK POWER COAL PRICE REMAINS FLAT - XINHUA
China’s benchmark power coal price remained flat during the past week.
The Bohai-Rim Steam-Coal Price Index (BSPI), a gauge of ...
Friday, 26 June 20
WHAT TODAY'S BAILOUTS CAN DO FOR TOMORROW'S ECONOMIES - WORLD ECONOMIC FORUM
The COVID-19 crisis provides an opportunity for governments to build fairer, more sustainable and more resilient economies.
Governments a ...
Thursday, 25 June 20
ALL YOU WANT TO KNOW ABOUT COAL MINE AUCTIONS - THE HINDU BUSINESS LINE
Last week, Prime Minister Narendra Modi threw open the auction of 41 coal blocks for commercial mining. The decision, which was part of the announc ...
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- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- The University of Queensland
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- PTC India Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
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