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Friday, 08 May 20
LNG DEMAND FACED SEVERAL HEADWINDS IN THE FIRST QUARTER OF 2020 - GASLOG
 LNG demand faced several headwinds in the first quarter of 2020 including a warmer than average winter in the northern hemisphere, high inventory levels of natural gas and LNG in several of the largest end markets for LNG and the outbreak of COVID-19, the impact of which has had an uneven distribution around the world during the year to date. For example, Chinese demand was 15 million tonnes (“mt”) in the first quarter of 2020, a decrease of 5% over the first quarter of 2019, according to Poten, but apparent demand in April has increased year-on-year based on vessel tracking data, including several cargoes exported from the U.S., GasLog says in its latest financial report.
Gaslog further noted, meanwhile, demand from Northern Asia more broadly (Japan, China, South Korea and Taiwan) grew by approximately 1 mt in the first quarter or 3% year-over-year. In addition, demand from India grew by nearly 2 mt in the first quarter of 2020 (or 37%) as the country looked to take advantage of historically low gas prices, although apparent demand in April is likely to be lower year-on-year based on vessel tracking data. Finally, demand from Europe grew by over 4 mt (or 37%) as gas pricing favored coal-to-gas switching for power generation and LNG replaces indigenous gas production. In total, LNG demand was 98 mt in the first quarter of 2020, compared to 89 mt in the first quarter of 2019, or an increase of 10%.
Wood Mackenzie currently expects global LNG demand to grow 21 mt or 6% this year, slower than the 26 mt or 7% it anticipated earlier this year prior to the global outbreak of COVID-19. Nonetheless, the demand for LNG over the near-term continues to be uncertain as many LNG importing countries either continue to have in effect shelter-in-place orders which prevent the operation of businesses deemed to be “non-essential” or are in the early stages of reopening their economies. Consequently, measures of global economic activity have declined significantly from comparable periods in 2019. However, the longer-term outlook for LNG demand remains favorable with demand growth of 92 mt estimated over the 2019-2025 timeframe, or compound annual growth of approximately 4%, according to Wood Mackenzie.
According to GasLog's latest financial report, global LNG supply was approximately 98 mt in the first quarter of 2020, an increase of 10 mt over the first quarter of 2019 (or 11%), primarily due to new supply additions in the U.S. (Cameron T1 and T2, Freeport T1, T2 and T3 and Elba Island), according to estimates from Wood Mackenzie. LNG supply is estimated to grow by 22 mt this year as the third train of Cameron begins operations and recent capacity additions continue to increase production. Further ahead, approximately 97 mt of new LNG capacity is expected to begin production during 2021-2025. However, Wood Mackenzie expects the pace of new project sanctions to slow significantly in 2020 due to the uncertainties caused by the COVID-19 outbreak in long-term demand for LNG and low global energy prices, in particular crude oil prices due to oversupply following a collapse in oil demand due to the COVID-19 virus.
In the LNG shipping spot market, tri-fuel diesel electric vessel (“TFDE”) headline rates, as reported by Clarksons, averaged $57,000 per day in the first quarter of 2020, a decrease from the averages of $108,000 in the fourth quarter of 2019 and $59,500 in the first quarter of 2019. Headline spot rates for steam turbine propulsion (“Steam”) vessels averaged $40,000 per day in the first quarter of 2020, a decrease from the average of $78,000 per day in the fourth quarter of 2019 but approximately in line with the $39,000 per day observed in the first quarter of 2019. Slower than expected LNG demand growth due in part to the impact of COVID-19 (as detailed above), high global inventories of natural gas and LNG following a warmer than average winter in the Northern Hemisphere and limited opportunities for LNG arbitrage trading between Atlantic and Pacific basins impacted headline spot rates in the first quarter of 2020.
Clarksons currently assesses headline spot rates for TFDE and Steam LNG carriers at $32,500 per day and $23,000 per day, respectively. The COVID-19 outbreak has introduced significant uncertainty regarding demand for LNG, and consequently, demand for LNG shipping over the near term. The combined impact of the COVID-19 outbreak and normal seasonality may lead to greater volatility in spot rates and to lower utilization of vessels trading in the spot and short-term markets, in particular Steam vessels. In addition, global gas prices and gas price differentials remain near historic lows in the key markets of North Asia and Europe, limiting the opportunities for inter-basin arbitrage trading and likely reducing average voyage distances as well as potentially reducing global output of LNG over the near-term, particularly in the U.S., where a number of cargo deferrals and/or cancellations have been reported for this summer, said GasLog.
As of May 5, 2020, the orderbook totals 118 dedicated LNG carriers (>100,000 cbm), according to estimates from Poten, representing 22% of the on-the-water fleet. Of these, 74 vessels (or 63%) have multi-year charters. The pace of newbuild ordering has slowed significantly relative to 2018-19, with only 4 newbuildings ordered so far in 2020 and all of them ordered against multi-year contracts, an encouraging development for the future supply and demand balance of LNG carriers.
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Tuesday, 07 July 20
WHAT DOES THE PATHWAY TO A NET-ZERO ECONOMY LOOK LIKE FOR MINERS? - WOOD MACKENZIE
Wind, solar, electric vehicles, stationary storage and transmission are all central to achieving the Paris Agreement decarbonisation goals.
&nb ...
Monday, 06 July 20
INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE IN FREE FALL
COALspot.com: The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources of the Republic of Indonesia has revised down again the benchmark price of Indonesian th ...
Monday, 06 July 20
SUPRAMAX: A 58,000-DWT FIXING DELIVERY VIETNAM TRIP VIA INDONESIA RE-DELIVERY WEST INDIA IN THE LOW $4,000S
Capesize
The Capesize market continues to go from strength to strength, as rates reach highs not seen since September last year. The rally is p ...
Thursday, 02 July 20
PRIVATE COAL MINING MAY SEE WEAK INVESTOR SENTIMENT: ICRA - LIVEMINT
The prospects of commercial coal mining in India may be dimmer than initially expected because of the expected shift in India’s energy mix fr ...
Wednesday, 01 July 20
THERMAL COAL OPTIONS TRADING LAUNCHED IN CHINA'S ZHENGZHOU - XINHUA
Thermal coal options started trading on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange (ZCE) in central China’s Henan Province Tuesday.
It i ...
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- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- The University of Queensland
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Planning Commission, India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
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