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Friday, 08 May 20
LNG DEMAND FACED SEVERAL HEADWINDS IN THE FIRST QUARTER OF 2020 - GASLOG
 LNG demand faced several headwinds in the first quarter of 2020 including a warmer than average winter in the northern hemisphere, high inventory levels of natural gas and LNG in several of the largest end markets for LNG and the outbreak of COVID-19, the impact of which has had an uneven distribution around the world during the year to date. For example, Chinese demand was 15 million tonnes (“mt”) in the first quarter of 2020, a decrease of 5% over the first quarter of 2019, according to Poten, but apparent demand in April has increased year-on-year based on vessel tracking data, including several cargoes exported from the U.S., GasLog says in its latest financial report.
Gaslog further noted, meanwhile, demand from Northern Asia more broadly (Japan, China, South Korea and Taiwan) grew by approximately 1 mt in the first quarter or 3% year-over-year. In addition, demand from India grew by nearly 2 mt in the first quarter of 2020 (or 37%) as the country looked to take advantage of historically low gas prices, although apparent demand in April is likely to be lower year-on-year based on vessel tracking data. Finally, demand from Europe grew by over 4 mt (or 37%) as gas pricing favored coal-to-gas switching for power generation and LNG replaces indigenous gas production. In total, LNG demand was 98 mt in the first quarter of 2020, compared to 89 mt in the first quarter of 2019, or an increase of 10%.
Wood Mackenzie currently expects global LNG demand to grow 21 mt or 6% this year, slower than the 26 mt or 7% it anticipated earlier this year prior to the global outbreak of COVID-19. Nonetheless, the demand for LNG over the near-term continues to be uncertain as many LNG importing countries either continue to have in effect shelter-in-place orders which prevent the operation of businesses deemed to be “non-essential” or are in the early stages of reopening their economies. Consequently, measures of global economic activity have declined significantly from comparable periods in 2019. However, the longer-term outlook for LNG demand remains favorable with demand growth of 92 mt estimated over the 2019-2025 timeframe, or compound annual growth of approximately 4%, according to Wood Mackenzie.
According to GasLog's latest financial report, global LNG supply was approximately 98 mt in the first quarter of 2020, an increase of 10 mt over the first quarter of 2019 (or 11%), primarily due to new supply additions in the U.S. (Cameron T1 and T2, Freeport T1, T2 and T3 and Elba Island), according to estimates from Wood Mackenzie. LNG supply is estimated to grow by 22 mt this year as the third train of Cameron begins operations and recent capacity additions continue to increase production. Further ahead, approximately 97 mt of new LNG capacity is expected to begin production during 2021-2025. However, Wood Mackenzie expects the pace of new project sanctions to slow significantly in 2020 due to the uncertainties caused by the COVID-19 outbreak in long-term demand for LNG and low global energy prices, in particular crude oil prices due to oversupply following a collapse in oil demand due to the COVID-19 virus.
In the LNG shipping spot market, tri-fuel diesel electric vessel (“TFDE”) headline rates, as reported by Clarksons, averaged $57,000 per day in the first quarter of 2020, a decrease from the averages of $108,000 in the fourth quarter of 2019 and $59,500 in the first quarter of 2019. Headline spot rates for steam turbine propulsion (“Steam”) vessels averaged $40,000 per day in the first quarter of 2020, a decrease from the average of $78,000 per day in the fourth quarter of 2019 but approximately in line with the $39,000 per day observed in the first quarter of 2019. Slower than expected LNG demand growth due in part to the impact of COVID-19 (as detailed above), high global inventories of natural gas and LNG following a warmer than average winter in the Northern Hemisphere and limited opportunities for LNG arbitrage trading between Atlantic and Pacific basins impacted headline spot rates in the first quarter of 2020.
Clarksons currently assesses headline spot rates for TFDE and Steam LNG carriers at $32,500 per day and $23,000 per day, respectively. The COVID-19 outbreak has introduced significant uncertainty regarding demand for LNG, and consequently, demand for LNG shipping over the near term. The combined impact of the COVID-19 outbreak and normal seasonality may lead to greater volatility in spot rates and to lower utilization of vessels trading in the spot and short-term markets, in particular Steam vessels. In addition, global gas prices and gas price differentials remain near historic lows in the key markets of North Asia and Europe, limiting the opportunities for inter-basin arbitrage trading and likely reducing average voyage distances as well as potentially reducing global output of LNG over the near-term, particularly in the U.S., where a number of cargo deferrals and/or cancellations have been reported for this summer, said GasLog.
As of May 5, 2020, the orderbook totals 118 dedicated LNG carriers (>100,000 cbm), according to estimates from Poten, representing 22% of the on-the-water fleet. Of these, 74 vessels (or 63%) have multi-year charters. The pace of newbuild ordering has slowed significantly relative to 2018-19, with only 4 newbuildings ordered so far in 2020 and all of them ordered against multi-year contracts, an encouraging development for the future supply and demand balance of LNG carriers.
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Friday, 10 July 20
CHINA'S BENCHMARK POWER COAL PRICE EDGES UP - XINHUA
China’s benchmark power coal price rose slightly during the past week.
The Bohai-Rim Steam-Coal Price Index (BSPI), a gauge of ...
Friday, 10 July 20
GLOBAL SHIPPING EARNINGS FORECAST CUT AS SUPPLY SET TO OUTSTRIP DEMAND - MOODY'S
EBITDA forecast worsens, keeping outlook negative. We now expect the aggregate EBITDA of rated shipping companies to fall by around 16%-18% in 2020 ...
Friday, 10 July 20
SLOW RECOVERY IN TANKER RATES TO WEIGH ON BUANA LINTAS LAUTAN - FITCH RATINGS
Fitch Ratings believes that international tanker rates are likely improve after their sharp fall since May 2020, albeit at a slow pace. The weaknes ...
Wednesday, 08 July 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
During the previous month, the dry bulk market witnessed an impressive increase in the BDI index that has reached 1800 points from 500 with a clear ...
Tuesday, 07 July 20
COAL INDIA WORKERS STRIKE CUTS OUTPUT BY 56%: OFFICIAL - REUTERS
A strike at Coal India Ltd cut production by 56% in the three days ending July 4 as workers oppose opening up coal mining to the private sector, a ...
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- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Economic Council, Georgia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- The University of Queensland
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Minerals Council of Australia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
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