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Friday, 08 May 20
LNG DEMAND FACED SEVERAL HEADWINDS IN THE FIRST QUARTER OF 2020 - GASLOG
 LNG demand faced several headwinds in the first quarter of 2020 including a warmer than average winter in the northern hemisphere, high inventory levels of natural gas and LNG in several of the largest end markets for LNG and the outbreak of COVID-19, the impact of which has had an uneven distribution around the world during the year to date. For example, Chinese demand was 15 million tonnes (“mt”) in the first quarter of 2020, a decrease of 5% over the first quarter of 2019, according to Poten, but apparent demand in April has increased year-on-year based on vessel tracking data, including several cargoes exported from the U.S., GasLog says in its latest financial report.
Gaslog further noted, meanwhile, demand from Northern Asia more broadly (Japan, China, South Korea and Taiwan) grew by approximately 1 mt in the first quarter or 3% year-over-year. In addition, demand from India grew by nearly 2 mt in the first quarter of 2020 (or 37%) as the country looked to take advantage of historically low gas prices, although apparent demand in April is likely to be lower year-on-year based on vessel tracking data. Finally, demand from Europe grew by over 4 mt (or 37%) as gas pricing favored coal-to-gas switching for power generation and LNG replaces indigenous gas production. In total, LNG demand was 98 mt in the first quarter of 2020, compared to 89 mt in the first quarter of 2019, or an increase of 10%.
Wood Mackenzie currently expects global LNG demand to grow 21 mt or 6% this year, slower than the 26 mt or 7% it anticipated earlier this year prior to the global outbreak of COVID-19. Nonetheless, the demand for LNG over the near-term continues to be uncertain as many LNG importing countries either continue to have in effect shelter-in-place orders which prevent the operation of businesses deemed to be “non-essential” or are in the early stages of reopening their economies. Consequently, measures of global economic activity have declined significantly from comparable periods in 2019. However, the longer-term outlook for LNG demand remains favorable with demand growth of 92 mt estimated over the 2019-2025 timeframe, or compound annual growth of approximately 4%, according to Wood Mackenzie.
According to GasLog's latest financial report, global LNG supply was approximately 98 mt in the first quarter of 2020, an increase of 10 mt over the first quarter of 2019 (or 11%), primarily due to new supply additions in the U.S. (Cameron T1 and T2, Freeport T1, T2 and T3 and Elba Island), according to estimates from Wood Mackenzie. LNG supply is estimated to grow by 22 mt this year as the third train of Cameron begins operations and recent capacity additions continue to increase production. Further ahead, approximately 97 mt of new LNG capacity is expected to begin production during 2021-2025. However, Wood Mackenzie expects the pace of new project sanctions to slow significantly in 2020 due to the uncertainties caused by the COVID-19 outbreak in long-term demand for LNG and low global energy prices, in particular crude oil prices due to oversupply following a collapse in oil demand due to the COVID-19 virus.
In the LNG shipping spot market, tri-fuel diesel electric vessel (“TFDE”) headline rates, as reported by Clarksons, averaged $57,000 per day in the first quarter of 2020, a decrease from the averages of $108,000 in the fourth quarter of 2019 and $59,500 in the first quarter of 2019. Headline spot rates for steam turbine propulsion (“Steam”) vessels averaged $40,000 per day in the first quarter of 2020, a decrease from the average of $78,000 per day in the fourth quarter of 2019 but approximately in line with the $39,000 per day observed in the first quarter of 2019. Slower than expected LNG demand growth due in part to the impact of COVID-19 (as detailed above), high global inventories of natural gas and LNG following a warmer than average winter in the Northern Hemisphere and limited opportunities for LNG arbitrage trading between Atlantic and Pacific basins impacted headline spot rates in the first quarter of 2020.
Clarksons currently assesses headline spot rates for TFDE and Steam LNG carriers at $32,500 per day and $23,000 per day, respectively. The COVID-19 outbreak has introduced significant uncertainty regarding demand for LNG, and consequently, demand for LNG shipping over the near term. The combined impact of the COVID-19 outbreak and normal seasonality may lead to greater volatility in spot rates and to lower utilization of vessels trading in the spot and short-term markets, in particular Steam vessels. In addition, global gas prices and gas price differentials remain near historic lows in the key markets of North Asia and Europe, limiting the opportunities for inter-basin arbitrage trading and likely reducing average voyage distances as well as potentially reducing global output of LNG over the near-term, particularly in the U.S., where a number of cargo deferrals and/or cancellations have been reported for this summer, said GasLog.
As of May 5, 2020, the orderbook totals 118 dedicated LNG carriers (>100,000 cbm), according to estimates from Poten, representing 22% of the on-the-water fleet. Of these, 74 vessels (or 63%) have multi-year charters. The pace of newbuild ordering has slowed significantly relative to 2018-19, with only 4 newbuildings ordered so far in 2020 and all of them ordered against multi-year contracts, an encouraging development for the future supply and demand balance of LNG carriers.
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Monday, 20 July 20
COAL INDIA LAUNCHES SPECIAL CATEGORY OF E-AUCTION FOR COAL IMPORTERS - BUSINESS STANDARD
Coal India (CIL) on Friday launched a special category of e-auction for importers of coal. This is in line with the government’s declaration ...
Monday, 20 July 20
OIL PRICE OF $40-43 PER BARREL MORE OR LESS BALANCED - NOVAK | TASS
The Russian Ministry of Energy considers the current oil price of $40-43 per barrel more or less balanced and does not expect price changes after t ...
Monday, 20 July 20
SUPRAMAX: A 63,000 OPEN NORTH CHINA FIXING AN AUSTRALIAN ROUND IN THE LOW $10,000S - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The capesize market showed some resistance this week to recent losses as all routes saw a small uptick in value to end the week. With ...
Friday, 17 July 20
MISC MALAYSIA ENTERS INTO PURCHASE AGREEMENTS AND TIME CHARTER PARTIES FOR SIX VLECS
MISC Berhad (MISC) has entered into Memorandum of Agreements (MOAs) with six indirect wholly-owned subsidiaries of Zhejiang Satellite Petrochem ...
Wednesday, 15 July 20
HOW MEANINGFUL ARE SOME ESTIMATES FOR INDIA’S COAL CONSUMPTION DATA? - IEEFA
In recent years, BP's estimates for India have contained what appears to be a record of over-optimistic projections
BP’s a ...
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- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- The University of Queensland
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
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