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Friday, 08 May 20
LNG DEMAND FACED SEVERAL HEADWINDS IN THE FIRST QUARTER OF 2020 - GASLOG
 LNG demand faced several headwinds in the first quarter of 2020 including a warmer than average winter in the northern hemisphere, high inventory levels of natural gas and LNG in several of the largest end markets for LNG and the outbreak of COVID-19, the impact of which has had an uneven distribution around the world during the year to date. For example, Chinese demand was 15 million tonnes (“mt”) in the first quarter of 2020, a decrease of 5% over the first quarter of 2019, according to Poten, but apparent demand in April has increased year-on-year based on vessel tracking data, including several cargoes exported from the U.S., GasLog says in its latest financial report.
Gaslog further noted, meanwhile, demand from Northern Asia more broadly (Japan, China, South Korea and Taiwan) grew by approximately 1 mt in the first quarter or 3% year-over-year. In addition, demand from India grew by nearly 2 mt in the first quarter of 2020 (or 37%) as the country looked to take advantage of historically low gas prices, although apparent demand in April is likely to be lower year-on-year based on vessel tracking data. Finally, demand from Europe grew by over 4 mt (or 37%) as gas pricing favored coal-to-gas switching for power generation and LNG replaces indigenous gas production. In total, LNG demand was 98 mt in the first quarter of 2020, compared to 89 mt in the first quarter of 2019, or an increase of 10%.
Wood Mackenzie currently expects global LNG demand to grow 21 mt or 6% this year, slower than the 26 mt or 7% it anticipated earlier this year prior to the global outbreak of COVID-19. Nonetheless, the demand for LNG over the near-term continues to be uncertain as many LNG importing countries either continue to have in effect shelter-in-place orders which prevent the operation of businesses deemed to be “non-essential” or are in the early stages of reopening their economies. Consequently, measures of global economic activity have declined significantly from comparable periods in 2019. However, the longer-term outlook for LNG demand remains favorable with demand growth of 92 mt estimated over the 2019-2025 timeframe, or compound annual growth of approximately 4%, according to Wood Mackenzie.
According to GasLog's latest financial report, global LNG supply was approximately 98 mt in the first quarter of 2020, an increase of 10 mt over the first quarter of 2019 (or 11%), primarily due to new supply additions in the U.S. (Cameron T1 and T2, Freeport T1, T2 and T3 and Elba Island), according to estimates from Wood Mackenzie. LNG supply is estimated to grow by 22 mt this year as the third train of Cameron begins operations and recent capacity additions continue to increase production. Further ahead, approximately 97 mt of new LNG capacity is expected to begin production during 2021-2025. However, Wood Mackenzie expects the pace of new project sanctions to slow significantly in 2020 due to the uncertainties caused by the COVID-19 outbreak in long-term demand for LNG and low global energy prices, in particular crude oil prices due to oversupply following a collapse in oil demand due to the COVID-19 virus.
In the LNG shipping spot market, tri-fuel diesel electric vessel (“TFDE”) headline rates, as reported by Clarksons, averaged $57,000 per day in the first quarter of 2020, a decrease from the averages of $108,000 in the fourth quarter of 2019 and $59,500 in the first quarter of 2019. Headline spot rates for steam turbine propulsion (“Steam”) vessels averaged $40,000 per day in the first quarter of 2020, a decrease from the average of $78,000 per day in the fourth quarter of 2019 but approximately in line with the $39,000 per day observed in the first quarter of 2019. Slower than expected LNG demand growth due in part to the impact of COVID-19 (as detailed above), high global inventories of natural gas and LNG following a warmer than average winter in the Northern Hemisphere and limited opportunities for LNG arbitrage trading between Atlantic and Pacific basins impacted headline spot rates in the first quarter of 2020.
Clarksons currently assesses headline spot rates for TFDE and Steam LNG carriers at $32,500 per day and $23,000 per day, respectively. The COVID-19 outbreak has introduced significant uncertainty regarding demand for LNG, and consequently, demand for LNG shipping over the near term. The combined impact of the COVID-19 outbreak and normal seasonality may lead to greater volatility in spot rates and to lower utilization of vessels trading in the spot and short-term markets, in particular Steam vessels. In addition, global gas prices and gas price differentials remain near historic lows in the key markets of North Asia and Europe, limiting the opportunities for inter-basin arbitrage trading and likely reducing average voyage distances as well as potentially reducing global output of LNG over the near-term, particularly in the U.S., where a number of cargo deferrals and/or cancellations have been reported for this summer, said GasLog.
As of May 5, 2020, the orderbook totals 118 dedicated LNG carriers (>100,000 cbm), according to estimates from Poten, representing 22% of the on-the-water fleet. Of these, 74 vessels (or 63%) have multi-year charters. The pace of newbuild ordering has slowed significantly relative to 2018-19, with only 4 newbuildings ordered so far in 2020 and all of them ordered against multi-year contracts, an encouraging development for the future supply and demand balance of LNG carriers.
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Wednesday, 15 July 20
CHINA'S JUNE COAL IMPORTS FALL 6.7% Y/Y ON PORT CURBS - REUTERS
China’s coal imports dropped 6.7% in June from the same period last year, as stringent import restrictions at ports impeded purchases by trad ...
Wednesday, 15 July 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The Covid-19 virus spread around the world has obviously impacted the global oil demand while the situation remains fluid. The overall constraint ...
Tuesday, 14 July 20
CHINA TAIYUAN COAL TRANSACTION PRICE INDEX UP 0.75 PCT - XINHUA
China Taiyuan coal transaction price index stood at 126.01 points Monday, up 0.75 percent week on week.
The index, released by China ...
Tuesday, 14 July 20
TURKEY - A CASE OF UNDECLARED BUNKER - GARD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Undeclared/excess bunkers can be considered a criminal act by Turkish customs officials with the ship's crew being ac ...
Monday, 13 July 20
PANAMAX: A TUMULTUOUS WEEK IN THE PANAMAX MARKET ENSURED ALL MARKETS GAINED VALUE ON THE WEEK - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
This week witnessed the dreaded correction in the Capesize market, with the time charter average shedding almost 18 per cent to close ...
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- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- White Energy Company Limited
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Australian Coal Association
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- The University of Queensland
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
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