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Friday, 08 May 20
LNG DEMAND FACED SEVERAL HEADWINDS IN THE FIRST QUARTER OF 2020 - GASLOG
 LNG demand faced several headwinds in the first quarter of 2020 including a warmer than average winter in the northern hemisphere, high inventory levels of natural gas and LNG in several of the largest end markets for LNG and the outbreak of COVID-19, the impact of which has had an uneven distribution around the world during the year to date. For example, Chinese demand was 15 million tonnes (“mt”) in the first quarter of 2020, a decrease of 5% over the first quarter of 2019, according to Poten, but apparent demand in April has increased year-on-year based on vessel tracking data, including several cargoes exported from the U.S., GasLog says in its latest financial report.
Gaslog further noted, meanwhile, demand from Northern Asia more broadly (Japan, China, South Korea and Taiwan) grew by approximately 1 mt in the first quarter or 3% year-over-year. In addition, demand from India grew by nearly 2 mt in the first quarter of 2020 (or 37%) as the country looked to take advantage of historically low gas prices, although apparent demand in April is likely to be lower year-on-year based on vessel tracking data. Finally, demand from Europe grew by over 4 mt (or 37%) as gas pricing favored coal-to-gas switching for power generation and LNG replaces indigenous gas production. In total, LNG demand was 98 mt in the first quarter of 2020, compared to 89 mt in the first quarter of 2019, or an increase of 10%.
Wood Mackenzie currently expects global LNG demand to grow 21 mt or 6% this year, slower than the 26 mt or 7% it anticipated earlier this year prior to the global outbreak of COVID-19. Nonetheless, the demand for LNG over the near-term continues to be uncertain as many LNG importing countries either continue to have in effect shelter-in-place orders which prevent the operation of businesses deemed to be “non-essential” or are in the early stages of reopening their economies. Consequently, measures of global economic activity have declined significantly from comparable periods in 2019. However, the longer-term outlook for LNG demand remains favorable with demand growth of 92 mt estimated over the 2019-2025 timeframe, or compound annual growth of approximately 4%, according to Wood Mackenzie.
According to GasLog's latest financial report, global LNG supply was approximately 98 mt in the first quarter of 2020, an increase of 10 mt over the first quarter of 2019 (or 11%), primarily due to new supply additions in the U.S. (Cameron T1 and T2, Freeport T1, T2 and T3 and Elba Island), according to estimates from Wood Mackenzie. LNG supply is estimated to grow by 22 mt this year as the third train of Cameron begins operations and recent capacity additions continue to increase production. Further ahead, approximately 97 mt of new LNG capacity is expected to begin production during 2021-2025. However, Wood Mackenzie expects the pace of new project sanctions to slow significantly in 2020 due to the uncertainties caused by the COVID-19 outbreak in long-term demand for LNG and low global energy prices, in particular crude oil prices due to oversupply following a collapse in oil demand due to the COVID-19 virus.
In the LNG shipping spot market, tri-fuel diesel electric vessel (“TFDE”) headline rates, as reported by Clarksons, averaged $57,000 per day in the first quarter of 2020, a decrease from the averages of $108,000 in the fourth quarter of 2019 and $59,500 in the first quarter of 2019. Headline spot rates for steam turbine propulsion (“Steam”) vessels averaged $40,000 per day in the first quarter of 2020, a decrease from the average of $78,000 per day in the fourth quarter of 2019 but approximately in line with the $39,000 per day observed in the first quarter of 2019. Slower than expected LNG demand growth due in part to the impact of COVID-19 (as detailed above), high global inventories of natural gas and LNG following a warmer than average winter in the Northern Hemisphere and limited opportunities for LNG arbitrage trading between Atlantic and Pacific basins impacted headline spot rates in the first quarter of 2020.
Clarksons currently assesses headline spot rates for TFDE and Steam LNG carriers at $32,500 per day and $23,000 per day, respectively. The COVID-19 outbreak has introduced significant uncertainty regarding demand for LNG, and consequently, demand for LNG shipping over the near term. The combined impact of the COVID-19 outbreak and normal seasonality may lead to greater volatility in spot rates and to lower utilization of vessels trading in the spot and short-term markets, in particular Steam vessels. In addition, global gas prices and gas price differentials remain near historic lows in the key markets of North Asia and Europe, limiting the opportunities for inter-basin arbitrage trading and likely reducing average voyage distances as well as potentially reducing global output of LNG over the near-term, particularly in the U.S., where a number of cargo deferrals and/or cancellations have been reported for this summer, said GasLog.
As of May 5, 2020, the orderbook totals 118 dedicated LNG carriers (>100,000 cbm), according to estimates from Poten, representing 22% of the on-the-water fleet. Of these, 74 vessels (or 63%) have multi-year charters. The pace of newbuild ordering has slowed significantly relative to 2018-19, with only 4 newbuildings ordered so far in 2020 and all of them ordered against multi-year contracts, an encouraging development for the future supply and demand balance of LNG carriers.
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Wednesday, 27 May 20
CHINA TAIYUAN COAL TRANSACTION PRICE INDEX UP 0.94 PCT - XINHUA
China Taiyuan coal transaction price index stood at 125.03 points Monday, up 0.94 percent week on week.
The index, released by China ...
Monday, 25 May 20
NON-OPEC OIL SUPPLY DEVELOPMENT - OPEC
Non-OPEC oil supply continued to increase by 2.0 mb/d in 2019, driven by US shale production, which rose by 1.7 mb/d, amounting to 84% of total non ...
Sunday, 24 May 20
A 63,000 FIXED DELIVERY VIETNAM TRIP VIA INDONESIA REDELIVERY KOSICHANG AT $8,500 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
After a week of bounce momentum the market appears to have stalled out once again. The Capesize 5TC has more than doubled since last F ...
Saturday, 23 May 20
COLOMBIA COAL OUTPUT DOWN 7.2% IN Q1 ON LOW PRICES, CORONAVIRUS LOCKDOWN - REUTERS
Coal production in Colombia, the world’s fifth-largest coal exporter, fell 7.2% in the first quarter because of low prices and coronavirus qu ...
Saturday, 23 May 20
EWP INVITES BIDS FOR 840,000 METRIC TONS OF MIN 5700 NAR COAL
COALspot.com: South Korea’s Korea East-West Power Co. Ltd (EWP) has Issued an International Tender for total Max 840,000 Metric Tons of min 5 ...
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- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- White Energy Company Limited
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Australian Coal Association
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- PTC India Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
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