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Friday, 17 April 20
OPEC BRACES FOR OIL MARKET'S "HISTORIC SHOCK"
 OPEC released its much anticipated April monthly report.
Crude Oil Price Movements
Crude oil prices collapsed in March 2020, recording their deepest monthly drop since the global financial crisis in 2008. The ramifications of the COVID-19 pandemic were the main driving force, resulting in unprecedented worldwide oil demand shock and massive sell-offs in the global oil markets, amid a significant crude surplus. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value was down by $21.61, or 38.9%, m-o-m, to stand at $33.92/b, the lowest monthly value since September 2003. ICE Brent declined by $21.75, or 39.2%, m-o-m, to average $33.73/b, while NYMEX WTI fell $20.09, or 39.8%, to average $30.45/b. The term structure of all three crude benchmarks – ICE Brent, NYMEX WTI and DME Oman – moved to a super contango in March, and money managers cut speculative net long positions.
World Economy
The world economy is forecast to face a severe recession in 2020, declining by 1.5%, following global economic growth of 2.9% in the previous year. Following tender signs of improvement at the beginning of the year, expectations for global economic growth were quickly burdened by the strong impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. Within the OECD, the US is forecast to contract by 4.1% in 2020, following growth of 2.3% in 2019. An even larger decline is expected in the Euro-zone, where economic activity is forecast to fall by 6.0% in 2020, compared to growth of 1.2% in 2019. Japan is forecast to contract by 3.9% in 2020, comparing to growth of 0.7% in 2019. China’s 2020 GDP is forecast to grow by 1.5%, recovering from a sharp contraction in 1Q20 and following growth of 6.1% in 2019. India is forecast to grow by only 2.0%, a sharp slowdown from already weakening growth of 5.3% in 2019. Brazil’s economy is forecast to contract by 2.4% in 2020, following growth of 1.0% in 2019. Russia’s economy is forecast to contract by 0.5% in 2020, after growth of 1.4% in 2019, not only due to COVID-19, but also because of the considerable decline in oil prices. As risk remains to be skewed to the downside, further revisions may be warranted going forward.
World Oil Demand
World oil demand growth forecast for 2019 is kept unchanged at 0.83 mb/d, compared with the previous month’s assessment. For 2020, the world oil demand growth forecast is revised lower by 6.9 mb/d, to a historical drop of around 6.8 mb/d. The contraction in the 2Q of this year is expected to be around 12 mb/d, with April witnessing the worst contraction at about 20 mb/d. The impact of the COVID-19 outbreak in China in 1Q20, and its negative impact on transportation and industrial fuels in the country, has since spread globally and is now affecting oil demand growth in most other countries and regions, with an unprecedented impact on global oil demand, transportation fuels in particular. As a result, OECD oil demand is revised lower by 3.7 mb/d to decline by 4.0 mb/d, while non-OECD oil demand growth is adjusted lower by 3.2 mb/d to contract by 2.9 mb/d for the year. Considering latest developments, and the large uncertainties going forward, downward risks remain significant, suggesting possibility of further adjustments, especially in the 2Q, should new data and further developments warrant revisions.
World Oil Supply Non-OPEC oil supply growth in 2019 is revised down by 0.01 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment and is now estimated at 1.98 mb/d. For 2020, non-OPEC oil supply is forecast to decline by 1.50 mb/d, a downward revision of 3.26 mb/d from the previous projection. The impact of COVID-19, ensuing global economic recession and oil demand shock, will also lead to supply disruptions. Benchmark oil prices plunge prompted companies to respond by cutting capital expenditure to the lowest in 13 years. The 2020 oil supply growth forecast for the US was revised down by 1.05 mb/d to show a decline of 0.15 mb/d y-o-y. The supply growth for the 10 non-OPEC countries participating in the Declaration of Cooperation has also been adjusted lower. Oil supply in 2020 is now forecast to show growth only in Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia. OPEC NGLs production in 2019 is estimated to have grown by 0.04 mb/d to average 4.79 mb/d and for 2020 will grow by 0.04 mb/d to average 4.83 mb/d. In March, OPEC crude oil production increased by 821 tb/d m-o-m to average 28.61 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Global refinery margins globally showed mixed performance during March. In the US, margins weakened as strength in gasoil/diesel was offset by losses in gasoline cracks, as complex margins came close to negative territory. In Europe, product markets strengthened slightly at the middle of the barrel, supported by a fall in feedstock prices. An already relatively tight global gasoil market saw support from output cuts and continued critical industrial activities for essential services and goods amid COVID-19. However, in Asia, margins eased towards the end of the month, pressured by a weaker top of the barrel, despite healthy gasoil and fuel oil crack spreads.
Tanker Market
The tanker market has been one of few segments of the oil industry that enjoyed positive momentum in March. A sudden surge in crude exports boosted demand for VLCCs, which pulled up Suezmax rates as well. Dirty spot freight rates declined mid-month before climbing again as the market was supported by high demand for tankers as charterers rushed to place cargoes amid a collapse in demand due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Increased options for time-chartering, including for floating storage, underscored the build-up of excess supply of crude and products in the market. For the month, dirty spot rates averaged 69% higher m-o-m in March. Clean tanker spot freight rates rose 12% m-o-m, as the need to find homes for excess product supplies supported the market.
Trade
Crude and product trade flows have been notably affected by the COVID-19 pandemic and the uncertain outlook going forward, although there has been some lag in how the various regions have been affected. US crude exports had a strong start to the year, averaging 3.5 mb/d in 1Q20, a gain of 0.8 mb/d over the same quarter last year, as the US remained a net liquids exporter for the seventh-consecutive month. Meanwhile, China’s crude imports averaged 10.5 mb/d over the first two months of 2020, declining from December as disruptions caused by COVID-19 led to some imports being diverted or delayed. Product trade was also affected, with imports and exports averaging 0.3 mb/d lower in the first two months of the year compared to December. Official data showed India’s crude imports increasing slightly in February, although some estimates show a higher jump as the country took in some discounted cargoes diverted from China. India’s crude and product trade is likely to be broadly impacted in March by a government-ordered lockdown.
Stock Movements
OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 5.6 mb, m-o-m, in February to stand at 2,945 mb. This was 64.3 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 24.7 mb above the latest five-year average. Within components, crude stocks fell by 6.1 mb, while product stocks rose by 11.7 mb, m-o-m. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks rose by 5.0 days, m-o-m, in February to stand at 72.7 days. This was 11.5 days above the same period in 2019, and 10.3 days above the latest five-year average. Preliminary data for March showed that US total commercial oil stocks increased by 8.2 mb, m-o-m, to stand at 1,922 mb. This was 31.8 mb, or 1.7%, above the same period a year ago, and 16.2 mb, or 0.8%, lower than the latest five-year average. Within components, crude stocks rose by 25.1 mb, while product stocks fell by 16.8 mb, m-o-m.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2019 stood at 29.9 mb/d, 1.2 mb/d lower than the 2018 level. Following the recent agreement reached at the extraordinary OPEC and non-OPEC Ministerial Meetings, the demand for OPEC crude in 2020 is expected at 24.5 mb/d, around 5.4 mb/d lower than the 2019 level, though this remains heavily subject to uncertainty surrounding current market conditions.
Source: OPEC
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Wednesday, 01 April 20
TRADERS SCRAMBLE TO SELL CHEAP CRUDE CARGOES AS GLUT GROWS - REUTERS
Oil traders across the globe are offering cargoes far in advance as rapidly vanishing demand drives key physical crude prices to multi-decade lows, ...
Wednesday, 01 April 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
There is an old, allegedly Chinese, saying suggesting that living in “interesting” times usually refers to times of trouble. The latest ...
Tuesday, 31 March 20
FREIGHT MARKET: DRY BULKERS - SPOT MARKET 23-29 MARCH 2020
Capesize
The rebound in freight rates resumed this past week, with rates man-aging to post further gains by week’s end. The BCI is in negat ...
Tuesday, 31 March 20
DRY BULK: Q1 HAS BEEN THE WORST QUARTER NOTED FOR MORE THAN 3 YEARS NOW - ALLIED RESEARCH
At this point, the Covid-19 pandemic seems to be monopolizing all market (as well as all other) discussions across the world and any market insight ...
Tuesday, 31 March 20
CHINA TAIYUAN COAL TRANSACTION PRICE INDEX DOWN 0.43 PCT - XINHUA
China Taiyuan coal transaction price index stood at 132.17 points Monday, down 0.43 percent week on week.
The index, released by Chi ...
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- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Australian Coal Association
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
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