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Friday, 17 April 20
OPEC BRACES FOR OIL MARKET'S "HISTORIC SHOCK"
 OPEC released its much anticipated April monthly report.
Crude Oil Price Movements
Crude oil prices collapsed in March 2020, recording their deepest monthly drop since the global financial crisis in 2008. The ramifications of the COVID-19 pandemic were the main driving force, resulting in unprecedented worldwide oil demand shock and massive sell-offs in the global oil markets, amid a significant crude surplus. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value was down by $21.61, or 38.9%, m-o-m, to stand at $33.92/b, the lowest monthly value since September 2003. ICE Brent declined by $21.75, or 39.2%, m-o-m, to average $33.73/b, while NYMEX WTI fell $20.09, or 39.8%, to average $30.45/b. The term structure of all three crude benchmarks – ICE Brent, NYMEX WTI and DME Oman – moved to a super contango in March, and money managers cut speculative net long positions.
World Economy
The world economy is forecast to face a severe recession in 2020, declining by 1.5%, following global economic growth of 2.9% in the previous year. Following tender signs of improvement at the beginning of the year, expectations for global economic growth were quickly burdened by the strong impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. Within the OECD, the US is forecast to contract by 4.1% in 2020, following growth of 2.3% in 2019. An even larger decline is expected in the Euro-zone, where economic activity is forecast to fall by 6.0% in 2020, compared to growth of 1.2% in 2019. Japan is forecast to contract by 3.9% in 2020, comparing to growth of 0.7% in 2019. China’s 2020 GDP is forecast to grow by 1.5%, recovering from a sharp contraction in 1Q20 and following growth of 6.1% in 2019. India is forecast to grow by only 2.0%, a sharp slowdown from already weakening growth of 5.3% in 2019. Brazil’s economy is forecast to contract by 2.4% in 2020, following growth of 1.0% in 2019. Russia’s economy is forecast to contract by 0.5% in 2020, after growth of 1.4% in 2019, not only due to COVID-19, but also because of the considerable decline in oil prices. As risk remains to be skewed to the downside, further revisions may be warranted going forward.
World Oil Demand
World oil demand growth forecast for 2019 is kept unchanged at 0.83 mb/d, compared with the previous month’s assessment. For 2020, the world oil demand growth forecast is revised lower by 6.9 mb/d, to a historical drop of around 6.8 mb/d. The contraction in the 2Q of this year is expected to be around 12 mb/d, with April witnessing the worst contraction at about 20 mb/d. The impact of the COVID-19 outbreak in China in 1Q20, and its negative impact on transportation and industrial fuels in the country, has since spread globally and is now affecting oil demand growth in most other countries and regions, with an unprecedented impact on global oil demand, transportation fuels in particular. As a result, OECD oil demand is revised lower by 3.7 mb/d to decline by 4.0 mb/d, while non-OECD oil demand growth is adjusted lower by 3.2 mb/d to contract by 2.9 mb/d for the year. Considering latest developments, and the large uncertainties going forward, downward risks remain significant, suggesting possibility of further adjustments, especially in the 2Q, should new data and further developments warrant revisions.
World Oil Supply Non-OPEC oil supply growth in 2019 is revised down by 0.01 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment and is now estimated at 1.98 mb/d. For 2020, non-OPEC oil supply is forecast to decline by 1.50 mb/d, a downward revision of 3.26 mb/d from the previous projection. The impact of COVID-19, ensuing global economic recession and oil demand shock, will also lead to supply disruptions. Benchmark oil prices plunge prompted companies to respond by cutting capital expenditure to the lowest in 13 years. The 2020 oil supply growth forecast for the US was revised down by 1.05 mb/d to show a decline of 0.15 mb/d y-o-y. The supply growth for the 10 non-OPEC countries participating in the Declaration of Cooperation has also been adjusted lower. Oil supply in 2020 is now forecast to show growth only in Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia. OPEC NGLs production in 2019 is estimated to have grown by 0.04 mb/d to average 4.79 mb/d and for 2020 will grow by 0.04 mb/d to average 4.83 mb/d. In March, OPEC crude oil production increased by 821 tb/d m-o-m to average 28.61 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Global refinery margins globally showed mixed performance during March. In the US, margins weakened as strength in gasoil/diesel was offset by losses in gasoline cracks, as complex margins came close to negative territory. In Europe, product markets strengthened slightly at the middle of the barrel, supported by a fall in feedstock prices. An already relatively tight global gasoil market saw support from output cuts and continued critical industrial activities for essential services and goods amid COVID-19. However, in Asia, margins eased towards the end of the month, pressured by a weaker top of the barrel, despite healthy gasoil and fuel oil crack spreads.
Tanker Market
The tanker market has been one of few segments of the oil industry that enjoyed positive momentum in March. A sudden surge in crude exports boosted demand for VLCCs, which pulled up Suezmax rates as well. Dirty spot freight rates declined mid-month before climbing again as the market was supported by high demand for tankers as charterers rushed to place cargoes amid a collapse in demand due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Increased options for time-chartering, including for floating storage, underscored the build-up of excess supply of crude and products in the market. For the month, dirty spot rates averaged 69% higher m-o-m in March. Clean tanker spot freight rates rose 12% m-o-m, as the need to find homes for excess product supplies supported the market.
Trade
Crude and product trade flows have been notably affected by the COVID-19 pandemic and the uncertain outlook going forward, although there has been some lag in how the various regions have been affected. US crude exports had a strong start to the year, averaging 3.5 mb/d in 1Q20, a gain of 0.8 mb/d over the same quarter last year, as the US remained a net liquids exporter for the seventh-consecutive month. Meanwhile, China’s crude imports averaged 10.5 mb/d over the first two months of 2020, declining from December as disruptions caused by COVID-19 led to some imports being diverted or delayed. Product trade was also affected, with imports and exports averaging 0.3 mb/d lower in the first two months of the year compared to December. Official data showed India’s crude imports increasing slightly in February, although some estimates show a higher jump as the country took in some discounted cargoes diverted from China. India’s crude and product trade is likely to be broadly impacted in March by a government-ordered lockdown.
Stock Movements
OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 5.6 mb, m-o-m, in February to stand at 2,945 mb. This was 64.3 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 24.7 mb above the latest five-year average. Within components, crude stocks fell by 6.1 mb, while product stocks rose by 11.7 mb, m-o-m. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks rose by 5.0 days, m-o-m, in February to stand at 72.7 days. This was 11.5 days above the same period in 2019, and 10.3 days above the latest five-year average. Preliminary data for March showed that US total commercial oil stocks increased by 8.2 mb, m-o-m, to stand at 1,922 mb. This was 31.8 mb, or 1.7%, above the same period a year ago, and 16.2 mb, or 0.8%, lower than the latest five-year average. Within components, crude stocks rose by 25.1 mb, while product stocks fell by 16.8 mb, m-o-m.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2019 stood at 29.9 mb/d, 1.2 mb/d lower than the 2018 level. Following the recent agreement reached at the extraordinary OPEC and non-OPEC Ministerial Meetings, the demand for OPEC crude in 2020 is expected at 24.5 mb/d, around 5.4 mb/d lower than the 2019 level, though this remains heavily subject to uncertainty surrounding current market conditions.
Source: OPEC
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Thursday, 09 April 20
SUSPENSION OF WRONGFUL TRADING IN LIGHT OF COVID 19 - WF&W
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
DIRECTORS’ PERSONAL LIABILITY FOR WRONGFUL TRADING – RELIEF DURING THE CORONAVIRUS CRISIS
As the UK&rsquo ...
Wednesday, 08 April 20
LESSONS LEARNED FROM SCRUBBER INSTALLATION AND OPERATION - ABS
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
At the beginning of this year, the IMO’s global sulfur cap on marine fuels entered into force and shipowners who ch ...
Wednesday, 08 April 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
With lockdown measures around the globe tightening during the last weeks of Q1, there is finally a feeling that most countries are slowly but stead ...
Tuesday, 07 April 20
SHIPPING MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED
With the first quarter of 2020 now firmly written in the books, it is worth examining what we have witnessed so far in the tanker market. Undoubted ...
Tuesday, 07 April 20
IS CHINA EMBARKING ON A MAJOR EXPANSION OF COAL-FIRED POWER GENERATION? - WOOD MACKENZIE
As energy companies worldwide grapple with the economic impact of the coronavirus pandemic, long-term planning continues. Ahead of the release of t ...
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- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Australian Coal Association
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Minerals Council of Australia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Planning Commission, India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- The University of Queensland
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
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