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Friday, 17 April 20
OPEC BRACES FOR OIL MARKET'S "HISTORIC SHOCK"
 OPEC released its much anticipated April monthly report.
Crude Oil Price Movements
Crude oil prices collapsed in March 2020, recording their deepest monthly drop since the global financial crisis in 2008. The ramifications of the COVID-19 pandemic were the main driving force, resulting in unprecedented worldwide oil demand shock and massive sell-offs in the global oil markets, amid a significant crude surplus. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value was down by $21.61, or 38.9%, m-o-m, to stand at $33.92/b, the lowest monthly value since September 2003. ICE Brent declined by $21.75, or 39.2%, m-o-m, to average $33.73/b, while NYMEX WTI fell $20.09, or 39.8%, to average $30.45/b. The term structure of all three crude benchmarks – ICE Brent, NYMEX WTI and DME Oman – moved to a super contango in March, and money managers cut speculative net long positions.
World Economy
The world economy is forecast to face a severe recession in 2020, declining by 1.5%, following global economic growth of 2.9% in the previous year. Following tender signs of improvement at the beginning of the year, expectations for global economic growth were quickly burdened by the strong impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. Within the OECD, the US is forecast to contract by 4.1% in 2020, following growth of 2.3% in 2019. An even larger decline is expected in the Euro-zone, where economic activity is forecast to fall by 6.0% in 2020, compared to growth of 1.2% in 2019. Japan is forecast to contract by 3.9% in 2020, comparing to growth of 0.7% in 2019. China’s 2020 GDP is forecast to grow by 1.5%, recovering from a sharp contraction in 1Q20 and following growth of 6.1% in 2019. India is forecast to grow by only 2.0%, a sharp slowdown from already weakening growth of 5.3% in 2019. Brazil’s economy is forecast to contract by 2.4% in 2020, following growth of 1.0% in 2019. Russia’s economy is forecast to contract by 0.5% in 2020, after growth of 1.4% in 2019, not only due to COVID-19, but also because of the considerable decline in oil prices. As risk remains to be skewed to the downside, further revisions may be warranted going forward.
World Oil Demand
World oil demand growth forecast for 2019 is kept unchanged at 0.83 mb/d, compared with the previous month’s assessment. For 2020, the world oil demand growth forecast is revised lower by 6.9 mb/d, to a historical drop of around 6.8 mb/d. The contraction in the 2Q of this year is expected to be around 12 mb/d, with April witnessing the worst contraction at about 20 mb/d. The impact of the COVID-19 outbreak in China in 1Q20, and its negative impact on transportation and industrial fuels in the country, has since spread globally and is now affecting oil demand growth in most other countries and regions, with an unprecedented impact on global oil demand, transportation fuels in particular. As a result, OECD oil demand is revised lower by 3.7 mb/d to decline by 4.0 mb/d, while non-OECD oil demand growth is adjusted lower by 3.2 mb/d to contract by 2.9 mb/d for the year. Considering latest developments, and the large uncertainties going forward, downward risks remain significant, suggesting possibility of further adjustments, especially in the 2Q, should new data and further developments warrant revisions.
World Oil Supply Non-OPEC oil supply growth in 2019 is revised down by 0.01 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment and is now estimated at 1.98 mb/d. For 2020, non-OPEC oil supply is forecast to decline by 1.50 mb/d, a downward revision of 3.26 mb/d from the previous projection. The impact of COVID-19, ensuing global economic recession and oil demand shock, will also lead to supply disruptions. Benchmark oil prices plunge prompted companies to respond by cutting capital expenditure to the lowest in 13 years. The 2020 oil supply growth forecast for the US was revised down by 1.05 mb/d to show a decline of 0.15 mb/d y-o-y. The supply growth for the 10 non-OPEC countries participating in the Declaration of Cooperation has also been adjusted lower. Oil supply in 2020 is now forecast to show growth only in Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia. OPEC NGLs production in 2019 is estimated to have grown by 0.04 mb/d to average 4.79 mb/d and for 2020 will grow by 0.04 mb/d to average 4.83 mb/d. In March, OPEC crude oil production increased by 821 tb/d m-o-m to average 28.61 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Global refinery margins globally showed mixed performance during March. In the US, margins weakened as strength in gasoil/diesel was offset by losses in gasoline cracks, as complex margins came close to negative territory. In Europe, product markets strengthened slightly at the middle of the barrel, supported by a fall in feedstock prices. An already relatively tight global gasoil market saw support from output cuts and continued critical industrial activities for essential services and goods amid COVID-19. However, in Asia, margins eased towards the end of the month, pressured by a weaker top of the barrel, despite healthy gasoil and fuel oil crack spreads.
Tanker Market
The tanker market has been one of few segments of the oil industry that enjoyed positive momentum in March. A sudden surge in crude exports boosted demand for VLCCs, which pulled up Suezmax rates as well. Dirty spot freight rates declined mid-month before climbing again as the market was supported by high demand for tankers as charterers rushed to place cargoes amid a collapse in demand due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Increased options for time-chartering, including for floating storage, underscored the build-up of excess supply of crude and products in the market. For the month, dirty spot rates averaged 69% higher m-o-m in March. Clean tanker spot freight rates rose 12% m-o-m, as the need to find homes for excess product supplies supported the market.
Trade
Crude and product trade flows have been notably affected by the COVID-19 pandemic and the uncertain outlook going forward, although there has been some lag in how the various regions have been affected. US crude exports had a strong start to the year, averaging 3.5 mb/d in 1Q20, a gain of 0.8 mb/d over the same quarter last year, as the US remained a net liquids exporter for the seventh-consecutive month. Meanwhile, China’s crude imports averaged 10.5 mb/d over the first two months of 2020, declining from December as disruptions caused by COVID-19 led to some imports being diverted or delayed. Product trade was also affected, with imports and exports averaging 0.3 mb/d lower in the first two months of the year compared to December. Official data showed India’s crude imports increasing slightly in February, although some estimates show a higher jump as the country took in some discounted cargoes diverted from China. India’s crude and product trade is likely to be broadly impacted in March by a government-ordered lockdown.
Stock Movements
OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 5.6 mb, m-o-m, in February to stand at 2,945 mb. This was 64.3 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 24.7 mb above the latest five-year average. Within components, crude stocks fell by 6.1 mb, while product stocks rose by 11.7 mb, m-o-m. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks rose by 5.0 days, m-o-m, in February to stand at 72.7 days. This was 11.5 days above the same period in 2019, and 10.3 days above the latest five-year average. Preliminary data for March showed that US total commercial oil stocks increased by 8.2 mb, m-o-m, to stand at 1,922 mb. This was 31.8 mb, or 1.7%, above the same period a year ago, and 16.2 mb, or 0.8%, lower than the latest five-year average. Within components, crude stocks rose by 25.1 mb, while product stocks fell by 16.8 mb, m-o-m.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2019 stood at 29.9 mb/d, 1.2 mb/d lower than the 2018 level. Following the recent agreement reached at the extraordinary OPEC and non-OPEC Ministerial Meetings, the demand for OPEC crude in 2020 is expected at 24.5 mb/d, around 5.4 mb/d lower than the 2019 level, though this remains heavily subject to uncertainty surrounding current market conditions.
Source: OPEC
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Tuesday, 07 April 20
COAL INDIA'S DISPATCHES DROP, OUTPUT INCREASES - THE HINDU
India’s largest coal producer Coal India Ltd. (CIL) has seen a 10% fall in dispatches in March 2020 due to a sharp fall in demand from the po ...
Tuesday, 07 April 20
CORONAVIRUS AND LOCKDOWNS DRAG DOWN THE INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE IN APRIL
COALspot.com: The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources of the Republic of Indonesia has revised down the benchmark price of the Indonesian ther ...
Monday, 06 April 20
A 52,000DWT SHIP FIXING DELIVERY SINGAPORE TRIP, VIA INDONESIA, REDELIVERY TAIWAN, AT $3,100 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The Capesize market this past week looks to have come off life support and found some improved sentiment. The week began rather ordina ...
Monday, 06 April 20
INDIA'S 21-DAY LOCKDOWN - IMPACT ON COMMODITIES? - WOOD MACKENZIE
India is under a three-week lockdown from 25 March, to contain the spread of the coronavirus outbreak. Wood Mackenzie analysts discuss what this me ...
Friday, 03 April 20
CHINA'S BENCHMARK POWER COAL PRICE DROPS SLIGHTLY - XINHUA
China’s benchmark power coal price dropped slightly during the past week.
The Bohai-Rim Steam-Coal Price Index (BSPI), a gauge ...
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Showing 1026 to 1030 news of total 6871 |
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- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- The University of Queensland
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Parliament of New Zealand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Australian Coal Association
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Planning Commission, India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
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