We welcome article submissions from experts in the areas of coal, mining,
shipping, etc.
To Submit your article please click here.
|
|
|
Friday, 17 April 20
OPEC BRACES FOR OIL MARKET'S "HISTORIC SHOCK"
 OPEC released its much anticipated April monthly report.
Crude Oil Price Movements
Crude oil prices collapsed in March 2020, recording their deepest monthly drop since the global financial crisis in 2008. The ramifications of the COVID-19 pandemic were the main driving force, resulting in unprecedented worldwide oil demand shock and massive sell-offs in the global oil markets, amid a significant crude surplus. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value was down by $21.61, or 38.9%, m-o-m, to stand at $33.92/b, the lowest monthly value since September 2003. ICE Brent declined by $21.75, or 39.2%, m-o-m, to average $33.73/b, while NYMEX WTI fell $20.09, or 39.8%, to average $30.45/b. The term structure of all three crude benchmarks – ICE Brent, NYMEX WTI and DME Oman – moved to a super contango in March, and money managers cut speculative net long positions.
World Economy
The world economy is forecast to face a severe recession in 2020, declining by 1.5%, following global economic growth of 2.9% in the previous year. Following tender signs of improvement at the beginning of the year, expectations for global economic growth were quickly burdened by the strong impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. Within the OECD, the US is forecast to contract by 4.1% in 2020, following growth of 2.3% in 2019. An even larger decline is expected in the Euro-zone, where economic activity is forecast to fall by 6.0% in 2020, compared to growth of 1.2% in 2019. Japan is forecast to contract by 3.9% in 2020, comparing to growth of 0.7% in 2019. China’s 2020 GDP is forecast to grow by 1.5%, recovering from a sharp contraction in 1Q20 and following growth of 6.1% in 2019. India is forecast to grow by only 2.0%, a sharp slowdown from already weakening growth of 5.3% in 2019. Brazil’s economy is forecast to contract by 2.4% in 2020, following growth of 1.0% in 2019. Russia’s economy is forecast to contract by 0.5% in 2020, after growth of 1.4% in 2019, not only due to COVID-19, but also because of the considerable decline in oil prices. As risk remains to be skewed to the downside, further revisions may be warranted going forward.
World Oil Demand
World oil demand growth forecast for 2019 is kept unchanged at 0.83 mb/d, compared with the previous month’s assessment. For 2020, the world oil demand growth forecast is revised lower by 6.9 mb/d, to a historical drop of around 6.8 mb/d. The contraction in the 2Q of this year is expected to be around 12 mb/d, with April witnessing the worst contraction at about 20 mb/d. The impact of the COVID-19 outbreak in China in 1Q20, and its negative impact on transportation and industrial fuels in the country, has since spread globally and is now affecting oil demand growth in most other countries and regions, with an unprecedented impact on global oil demand, transportation fuels in particular. As a result, OECD oil demand is revised lower by 3.7 mb/d to decline by 4.0 mb/d, while non-OECD oil demand growth is adjusted lower by 3.2 mb/d to contract by 2.9 mb/d for the year. Considering latest developments, and the large uncertainties going forward, downward risks remain significant, suggesting possibility of further adjustments, especially in the 2Q, should new data and further developments warrant revisions.
World Oil Supply Non-OPEC oil supply growth in 2019 is revised down by 0.01 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment and is now estimated at 1.98 mb/d. For 2020, non-OPEC oil supply is forecast to decline by 1.50 mb/d, a downward revision of 3.26 mb/d from the previous projection. The impact of COVID-19, ensuing global economic recession and oil demand shock, will also lead to supply disruptions. Benchmark oil prices plunge prompted companies to respond by cutting capital expenditure to the lowest in 13 years. The 2020 oil supply growth forecast for the US was revised down by 1.05 mb/d to show a decline of 0.15 mb/d y-o-y. The supply growth for the 10 non-OPEC countries participating in the Declaration of Cooperation has also been adjusted lower. Oil supply in 2020 is now forecast to show growth only in Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia. OPEC NGLs production in 2019 is estimated to have grown by 0.04 mb/d to average 4.79 mb/d and for 2020 will grow by 0.04 mb/d to average 4.83 mb/d. In March, OPEC crude oil production increased by 821 tb/d m-o-m to average 28.61 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Global refinery margins globally showed mixed performance during March. In the US, margins weakened as strength in gasoil/diesel was offset by losses in gasoline cracks, as complex margins came close to negative territory. In Europe, product markets strengthened slightly at the middle of the barrel, supported by a fall in feedstock prices. An already relatively tight global gasoil market saw support from output cuts and continued critical industrial activities for essential services and goods amid COVID-19. However, in Asia, margins eased towards the end of the month, pressured by a weaker top of the barrel, despite healthy gasoil and fuel oil crack spreads.
Tanker Market
The tanker market has been one of few segments of the oil industry that enjoyed positive momentum in March. A sudden surge in crude exports boosted demand for VLCCs, which pulled up Suezmax rates as well. Dirty spot freight rates declined mid-month before climbing again as the market was supported by high demand for tankers as charterers rushed to place cargoes amid a collapse in demand due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Increased options for time-chartering, including for floating storage, underscored the build-up of excess supply of crude and products in the market. For the month, dirty spot rates averaged 69% higher m-o-m in March. Clean tanker spot freight rates rose 12% m-o-m, as the need to find homes for excess product supplies supported the market.
Trade
Crude and product trade flows have been notably affected by the COVID-19 pandemic and the uncertain outlook going forward, although there has been some lag in how the various regions have been affected. US crude exports had a strong start to the year, averaging 3.5 mb/d in 1Q20, a gain of 0.8 mb/d over the same quarter last year, as the US remained a net liquids exporter for the seventh-consecutive month. Meanwhile, China’s crude imports averaged 10.5 mb/d over the first two months of 2020, declining from December as disruptions caused by COVID-19 led to some imports being diverted or delayed. Product trade was also affected, with imports and exports averaging 0.3 mb/d lower in the first two months of the year compared to December. Official data showed India’s crude imports increasing slightly in February, although some estimates show a higher jump as the country took in some discounted cargoes diverted from China. India’s crude and product trade is likely to be broadly impacted in March by a government-ordered lockdown.
Stock Movements
OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 5.6 mb, m-o-m, in February to stand at 2,945 mb. This was 64.3 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 24.7 mb above the latest five-year average. Within components, crude stocks fell by 6.1 mb, while product stocks rose by 11.7 mb, m-o-m. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks rose by 5.0 days, m-o-m, in February to stand at 72.7 days. This was 11.5 days above the same period in 2019, and 10.3 days above the latest five-year average. Preliminary data for March showed that US total commercial oil stocks increased by 8.2 mb, m-o-m, to stand at 1,922 mb. This was 31.8 mb, or 1.7%, above the same period a year ago, and 16.2 mb, or 0.8%, lower than the latest five-year average. Within components, crude stocks rose by 25.1 mb, while product stocks fell by 16.8 mb, m-o-m.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2019 stood at 29.9 mb/d, 1.2 mb/d lower than the 2018 level. Following the recent agreement reached at the extraordinary OPEC and non-OPEC Ministerial Meetings, the demand for OPEC crude in 2020 is expected at 24.5 mb/d, around 5.4 mb/d lower than the 2019 level, though this remains heavily subject to uncertainty surrounding current market conditions.
Source: OPEC
If you believe an article violates your rights or the rights of others, please contact us.
|
|
Tuesday, 31 March 20
COAL POWER REMAINS IN GLOBAL DECLINE, DESPITE CHINESE SURGE - SYDNEY MORNING HERALD
The impact of coronavirus has prompted a surge in coal-fired power plant construction permits in China, with the Chinese government issuing more pe ...
Monday, 30 March 20
CORONAVIRUS - IMPLICATIONS FOR SHIPS AND CREW - GARD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Countries around the world are strengthening their border control measures in order to prevent the further spread of COVI ...
Monday, 30 March 20
LAY-UP AND RE-ACTIVATION REVISITED - GARD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
The COVID-19 pandemic has affected the maritime industry in previously unthinkable ways. Ports around the world are denyi ...
Monday, 30 March 20
PANAMAX: INDONESIA LACKED VOLUME, PARTLY DUE TO FORCE MAJEURE IN INDIAN PORTS - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
As Covid-19 continued to ratchet up tensions across the globe, the Cape market dealt with the change to remote working. Most regions o ...
Saturday, 28 March 20
ASIA'S COAL MARKETS DIVERGE ON QUALITY LINES AS CORONAVIRUS HITS INDIA - REUTERS
Asia’s seaborne coal market is increasingly diverging between higher-quality Australian coal, where prices are holding up despite the economi ...
|
|
|
Showing 1036 to 1040 news of total 6871 |
|
 |
|
|
|
|
| |
|
 |
|
|
| |
|
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- The University of Queensland
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Australian Coal Association
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
|
| |
| |
|
