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Friday, 17 April 20
OPEC BRACES FOR OIL MARKET'S "HISTORIC SHOCK"
 OPEC released its much anticipated April monthly report.
Crude Oil Price Movements
Crude oil prices collapsed in March 2020, recording their deepest monthly drop since the global financial crisis in 2008. The ramifications of the COVID-19 pandemic were the main driving force, resulting in unprecedented worldwide oil demand shock and massive sell-offs in the global oil markets, amid a significant crude surplus. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value was down by $21.61, or 38.9%, m-o-m, to stand at $33.92/b, the lowest monthly value since September 2003. ICE Brent declined by $21.75, or 39.2%, m-o-m, to average $33.73/b, while NYMEX WTI fell $20.09, or 39.8%, to average $30.45/b. The term structure of all three crude benchmarks – ICE Brent, NYMEX WTI and DME Oman – moved to a super contango in March, and money managers cut speculative net long positions.
World Economy
The world economy is forecast to face a severe recession in 2020, declining by 1.5%, following global economic growth of 2.9% in the previous year. Following tender signs of improvement at the beginning of the year, expectations for global economic growth were quickly burdened by the strong impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. Within the OECD, the US is forecast to contract by 4.1% in 2020, following growth of 2.3% in 2019. An even larger decline is expected in the Euro-zone, where economic activity is forecast to fall by 6.0% in 2020, compared to growth of 1.2% in 2019. Japan is forecast to contract by 3.9% in 2020, comparing to growth of 0.7% in 2019. China’s 2020 GDP is forecast to grow by 1.5%, recovering from a sharp contraction in 1Q20 and following growth of 6.1% in 2019. India is forecast to grow by only 2.0%, a sharp slowdown from already weakening growth of 5.3% in 2019. Brazil’s economy is forecast to contract by 2.4% in 2020, following growth of 1.0% in 2019. Russia’s economy is forecast to contract by 0.5% in 2020, after growth of 1.4% in 2019, not only due to COVID-19, but also because of the considerable decline in oil prices. As risk remains to be skewed to the downside, further revisions may be warranted going forward.
World Oil Demand
World oil demand growth forecast for 2019 is kept unchanged at 0.83 mb/d, compared with the previous month’s assessment. For 2020, the world oil demand growth forecast is revised lower by 6.9 mb/d, to a historical drop of around 6.8 mb/d. The contraction in the 2Q of this year is expected to be around 12 mb/d, with April witnessing the worst contraction at about 20 mb/d. The impact of the COVID-19 outbreak in China in 1Q20, and its negative impact on transportation and industrial fuels in the country, has since spread globally and is now affecting oil demand growth in most other countries and regions, with an unprecedented impact on global oil demand, transportation fuels in particular. As a result, OECD oil demand is revised lower by 3.7 mb/d to decline by 4.0 mb/d, while non-OECD oil demand growth is adjusted lower by 3.2 mb/d to contract by 2.9 mb/d for the year. Considering latest developments, and the large uncertainties going forward, downward risks remain significant, suggesting possibility of further adjustments, especially in the 2Q, should new data and further developments warrant revisions.
World Oil Supply Non-OPEC oil supply growth in 2019 is revised down by 0.01 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment and is now estimated at 1.98 mb/d. For 2020, non-OPEC oil supply is forecast to decline by 1.50 mb/d, a downward revision of 3.26 mb/d from the previous projection. The impact of COVID-19, ensuing global economic recession and oil demand shock, will also lead to supply disruptions. Benchmark oil prices plunge prompted companies to respond by cutting capital expenditure to the lowest in 13 years. The 2020 oil supply growth forecast for the US was revised down by 1.05 mb/d to show a decline of 0.15 mb/d y-o-y. The supply growth for the 10 non-OPEC countries participating in the Declaration of Cooperation has also been adjusted lower. Oil supply in 2020 is now forecast to show growth only in Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia. OPEC NGLs production in 2019 is estimated to have grown by 0.04 mb/d to average 4.79 mb/d and for 2020 will grow by 0.04 mb/d to average 4.83 mb/d. In March, OPEC crude oil production increased by 821 tb/d m-o-m to average 28.61 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Global refinery margins globally showed mixed performance during March. In the US, margins weakened as strength in gasoil/diesel was offset by losses in gasoline cracks, as complex margins came close to negative territory. In Europe, product markets strengthened slightly at the middle of the barrel, supported by a fall in feedstock prices. An already relatively tight global gasoil market saw support from output cuts and continued critical industrial activities for essential services and goods amid COVID-19. However, in Asia, margins eased towards the end of the month, pressured by a weaker top of the barrel, despite healthy gasoil and fuel oil crack spreads.
Tanker Market
The tanker market has been one of few segments of the oil industry that enjoyed positive momentum in March. A sudden surge in crude exports boosted demand for VLCCs, which pulled up Suezmax rates as well. Dirty spot freight rates declined mid-month before climbing again as the market was supported by high demand for tankers as charterers rushed to place cargoes amid a collapse in demand due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Increased options for time-chartering, including for floating storage, underscored the build-up of excess supply of crude and products in the market. For the month, dirty spot rates averaged 69% higher m-o-m in March. Clean tanker spot freight rates rose 12% m-o-m, as the need to find homes for excess product supplies supported the market.
Trade
Crude and product trade flows have been notably affected by the COVID-19 pandemic and the uncertain outlook going forward, although there has been some lag in how the various regions have been affected. US crude exports had a strong start to the year, averaging 3.5 mb/d in 1Q20, a gain of 0.8 mb/d over the same quarter last year, as the US remained a net liquids exporter for the seventh-consecutive month. Meanwhile, China’s crude imports averaged 10.5 mb/d over the first two months of 2020, declining from December as disruptions caused by COVID-19 led to some imports being diverted or delayed. Product trade was also affected, with imports and exports averaging 0.3 mb/d lower in the first two months of the year compared to December. Official data showed India’s crude imports increasing slightly in February, although some estimates show a higher jump as the country took in some discounted cargoes diverted from China. India’s crude and product trade is likely to be broadly impacted in March by a government-ordered lockdown.
Stock Movements
OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 5.6 mb, m-o-m, in February to stand at 2,945 mb. This was 64.3 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 24.7 mb above the latest five-year average. Within components, crude stocks fell by 6.1 mb, while product stocks rose by 11.7 mb, m-o-m. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks rose by 5.0 days, m-o-m, in February to stand at 72.7 days. This was 11.5 days above the same period in 2019, and 10.3 days above the latest five-year average. Preliminary data for March showed that US total commercial oil stocks increased by 8.2 mb, m-o-m, to stand at 1,922 mb. This was 31.8 mb, or 1.7%, above the same period a year ago, and 16.2 mb, or 0.8%, lower than the latest five-year average. Within components, crude stocks rose by 25.1 mb, while product stocks fell by 16.8 mb, m-o-m.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2019 stood at 29.9 mb/d, 1.2 mb/d lower than the 2018 level. Following the recent agreement reached at the extraordinary OPEC and non-OPEC Ministerial Meetings, the demand for OPEC crude in 2020 is expected at 24.5 mb/d, around 5.4 mb/d lower than the 2019 level, though this remains heavily subject to uncertainty surrounding current market conditions.
Source: OPEC
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Friday, 27 March 20
CHINA'S BULKS: THE SENTIMENT GAP BETWEEN STEEL AND COAL WIDENS - WOOD MACKENZIE
China seems to be containing its local coronavirus situation, with imported cases now posing the greater threat. While quarantine measures remain t ...
Friday, 27 March 20
S.KOREA Q1 THERMAL COAL IMPORTS SET FOR 10-YR LOW ON ANTI-POLLUTION MEASURES - REUTERS
South Korea’s first-quarter thermal coal imports are set to fall to a decade-low due to stricter air pollution measures, while the coronaviru ...
Friday, 27 March 20
PORT OF NEWCASTLE OPERATIONS CONTINUE WITH COVID-19 RESPONSE MEASURES IN PLACE
Port of Newcastle, like many organisations, is taking a precautionary approach to help manage COVID-19 risks in the community. Our focus is on ensu ...
Thursday, 26 March 20
CHINA'S BENCHMARK POWER COAL PRICE DROPS SLIGHTLY - XINHUA
China’s benchmark power coal price dropped slightly during the past week.
The Bohai-Rim Steam-Coal Price Index (BSPI), a gauge ...
Wednesday, 25 March 20
CORONAVIRUS CRISIS IS CRUSHING GLOBAL GDP GROWTH - FITCH RATINGS
The coronavirus crisis is crushing global GDP growth according to Fitch Ratings in its latest quarterly “Global Economic Outlook” (GEO) ...
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- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- PTC India Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Planning Commission, India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Economic Council, Georgia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
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