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Friday, 17 April 20
OPEC BRACES FOR OIL MARKET'S "HISTORIC SHOCK"
 OPEC released its much anticipated April monthly report.
Crude Oil Price Movements
Crude oil prices collapsed in March 2020, recording their deepest monthly drop since the global financial crisis in 2008. The ramifications of the COVID-19 pandemic were the main driving force, resulting in unprecedented worldwide oil demand shock and massive sell-offs in the global oil markets, amid a significant crude surplus. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value was down by $21.61, or 38.9%, m-o-m, to stand at $33.92/b, the lowest monthly value since September 2003. ICE Brent declined by $21.75, or 39.2%, m-o-m, to average $33.73/b, while NYMEX WTI fell $20.09, or 39.8%, to average $30.45/b. The term structure of all three crude benchmarks – ICE Brent, NYMEX WTI and DME Oman – moved to a super contango in March, and money managers cut speculative net long positions.
World Economy
The world economy is forecast to face a severe recession in 2020, declining by 1.5%, following global economic growth of 2.9% in the previous year. Following tender signs of improvement at the beginning of the year, expectations for global economic growth were quickly burdened by the strong impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. Within the OECD, the US is forecast to contract by 4.1% in 2020, following growth of 2.3% in 2019. An even larger decline is expected in the Euro-zone, where economic activity is forecast to fall by 6.0% in 2020, compared to growth of 1.2% in 2019. Japan is forecast to contract by 3.9% in 2020, comparing to growth of 0.7% in 2019. China’s 2020 GDP is forecast to grow by 1.5%, recovering from a sharp contraction in 1Q20 and following growth of 6.1% in 2019. India is forecast to grow by only 2.0%, a sharp slowdown from already weakening growth of 5.3% in 2019. Brazil’s economy is forecast to contract by 2.4% in 2020, following growth of 1.0% in 2019. Russia’s economy is forecast to contract by 0.5% in 2020, after growth of 1.4% in 2019, not only due to COVID-19, but also because of the considerable decline in oil prices. As risk remains to be skewed to the downside, further revisions may be warranted going forward.
World Oil Demand
World oil demand growth forecast for 2019 is kept unchanged at 0.83 mb/d, compared with the previous month’s assessment. For 2020, the world oil demand growth forecast is revised lower by 6.9 mb/d, to a historical drop of around 6.8 mb/d. The contraction in the 2Q of this year is expected to be around 12 mb/d, with April witnessing the worst contraction at about 20 mb/d. The impact of the COVID-19 outbreak in China in 1Q20, and its negative impact on transportation and industrial fuels in the country, has since spread globally and is now affecting oil demand growth in most other countries and regions, with an unprecedented impact on global oil demand, transportation fuels in particular. As a result, OECD oil demand is revised lower by 3.7 mb/d to decline by 4.0 mb/d, while non-OECD oil demand growth is adjusted lower by 3.2 mb/d to contract by 2.9 mb/d for the year. Considering latest developments, and the large uncertainties going forward, downward risks remain significant, suggesting possibility of further adjustments, especially in the 2Q, should new data and further developments warrant revisions.
World Oil Supply Non-OPEC oil supply growth in 2019 is revised down by 0.01 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment and is now estimated at 1.98 mb/d. For 2020, non-OPEC oil supply is forecast to decline by 1.50 mb/d, a downward revision of 3.26 mb/d from the previous projection. The impact of COVID-19, ensuing global economic recession and oil demand shock, will also lead to supply disruptions. Benchmark oil prices plunge prompted companies to respond by cutting capital expenditure to the lowest in 13 years. The 2020 oil supply growth forecast for the US was revised down by 1.05 mb/d to show a decline of 0.15 mb/d y-o-y. The supply growth for the 10 non-OPEC countries participating in the Declaration of Cooperation has also been adjusted lower. Oil supply in 2020 is now forecast to show growth only in Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia. OPEC NGLs production in 2019 is estimated to have grown by 0.04 mb/d to average 4.79 mb/d and for 2020 will grow by 0.04 mb/d to average 4.83 mb/d. In March, OPEC crude oil production increased by 821 tb/d m-o-m to average 28.61 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Global refinery margins globally showed mixed performance during March. In the US, margins weakened as strength in gasoil/diesel was offset by losses in gasoline cracks, as complex margins came close to negative territory. In Europe, product markets strengthened slightly at the middle of the barrel, supported by a fall in feedstock prices. An already relatively tight global gasoil market saw support from output cuts and continued critical industrial activities for essential services and goods amid COVID-19. However, in Asia, margins eased towards the end of the month, pressured by a weaker top of the barrel, despite healthy gasoil and fuel oil crack spreads.
Tanker Market
The tanker market has been one of few segments of the oil industry that enjoyed positive momentum in March. A sudden surge in crude exports boosted demand for VLCCs, which pulled up Suezmax rates as well. Dirty spot freight rates declined mid-month before climbing again as the market was supported by high demand for tankers as charterers rushed to place cargoes amid a collapse in demand due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Increased options for time-chartering, including for floating storage, underscored the build-up of excess supply of crude and products in the market. For the month, dirty spot rates averaged 69% higher m-o-m in March. Clean tanker spot freight rates rose 12% m-o-m, as the need to find homes for excess product supplies supported the market.
Trade
Crude and product trade flows have been notably affected by the COVID-19 pandemic and the uncertain outlook going forward, although there has been some lag in how the various regions have been affected. US crude exports had a strong start to the year, averaging 3.5 mb/d in 1Q20, a gain of 0.8 mb/d over the same quarter last year, as the US remained a net liquids exporter for the seventh-consecutive month. Meanwhile, China’s crude imports averaged 10.5 mb/d over the first two months of 2020, declining from December as disruptions caused by COVID-19 led to some imports being diverted or delayed. Product trade was also affected, with imports and exports averaging 0.3 mb/d lower in the first two months of the year compared to December. Official data showed India’s crude imports increasing slightly in February, although some estimates show a higher jump as the country took in some discounted cargoes diverted from China. India’s crude and product trade is likely to be broadly impacted in March by a government-ordered lockdown.
Stock Movements
OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 5.6 mb, m-o-m, in February to stand at 2,945 mb. This was 64.3 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 24.7 mb above the latest five-year average. Within components, crude stocks fell by 6.1 mb, while product stocks rose by 11.7 mb, m-o-m. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks rose by 5.0 days, m-o-m, in February to stand at 72.7 days. This was 11.5 days above the same period in 2019, and 10.3 days above the latest five-year average. Preliminary data for March showed that US total commercial oil stocks increased by 8.2 mb, m-o-m, to stand at 1,922 mb. This was 31.8 mb, or 1.7%, above the same period a year ago, and 16.2 mb, or 0.8%, lower than the latest five-year average. Within components, crude stocks rose by 25.1 mb, while product stocks fell by 16.8 mb, m-o-m.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2019 stood at 29.9 mb/d, 1.2 mb/d lower than the 2018 level. Following the recent agreement reached at the extraordinary OPEC and non-OPEC Ministerial Meetings, the demand for OPEC crude in 2020 is expected at 24.5 mb/d, around 5.4 mb/d lower than the 2019 level, though this remains heavily subject to uncertainty surrounding current market conditions.
Source: OPEC
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Tuesday, 24 March 20
CHINA TAIYUAN COAL TRANSACTION PRICE INDEX DOWN 0.28 PCT - XINHUA
China Taiyuan coal transaction price index stood at 132.74 points Monday, down 0.28 percent week on week.
The index, released by Chi ...
Monday, 23 March 20
CHARTERPARTY REQUIREMENTS TO NOTIFY CLAIMS - TAKE CARE! - WFW
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Voyage charterparties frequently require the owner to notify any claim with supporting documents within a relatively shor ...
Monday, 23 March 20
COAL INDIA LIMITED'S ONE-DAY OUTPUT PEAKS AT 3.17 MT - THE HINDU
Coal India Limited (CIL) output peaked at a new high of 3.17 million tonnes (MT) on March 20, overtaking the 3.14 MT production recorded on March 2 ...
Monday, 23 March 20
KOMIPO INVITED BIDS FOR 1.45 MILLION TONS OF COAL FOR JUNE & JULY 2020 LOADING
COALspot.com: Korea Midland Power Co.,Ltd (KOMIPO), on behalf of five Korean Gencos, has issued an international tender for total 1,450,000 MT (&pl ...
Saturday, 21 March 20
PANAMAX: 82,000DWT SHIP AGREED $4,250 FOR A COAL TRIP VIA INDONESIA REDELIVERY SOUTH CHINA - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The Capesize market made some headway this past week despite being buffeted by the global pandemic storm. With the market in a constan ...
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Showing 1051 to 1055 news of total 6871 |
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- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- PTC India Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Economic Council, Georgia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- The University of Queensland
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
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