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Thursday, 16 April 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 As everyone anticipated the results of the OPEC + G20 meeting last week, it was very interesting to watch the reaction of tanker rates that were in a bull run lately. Amidst an oversupplied oil market and expectations of production cuts and consequent oil price hikes, the large contango effect has made profitable several storage plays during the past couple of months, occupying a lot of ships as a result, while in addition to that, several countries decided (amid bottoming oil prices and the Coronavirus pandemic emergency) to increase to the maximum their strategic petroleum reserves (e.g. the US SPR already has 634 million barrels in storage vs. a total capacity of 713 million barrels).
Key stakeholders in the industry created an additional hype by characterizing this meeting as one of the most important and historic events in the last two decades, creating expectations that any deal would lead to a further spike in short-term activity. There were of course also some less optimistic voices in the industry insisting that deal or no-deal the tanker market remained fundamentally weak in the long term, with the pandemic restrictive measures around the world already leading to a 25-35 million b/d or 30% decrease in demand. Following the end of the meeting, OPEC+ announced output cuts of 9.7m b/d for May and June, 8m b/d for the remainder of 2020 and 6 million b/d for the period January 2021-April 2022. The record cuts we are about to witness in the next couple of months are almost equal to 10% of global supply, while together with non-OPEC+ member cuts the figure could even reach the equivalent of 1/5 of global supply.
This means that May onwards cargo loadings will definitely see significant declines and this will most likely have a negative impact on the tanker freight market. Because of this expectation, we could possibly see producing countries trying to pump out as much product as possible before the agreement enters into effect, which could offer some support to the tanker market before we reach May 1st.
Looking further ahead and as “expecting the unexpected” is something everyone must have gotten used to by now, I’d say that there are a few possible scenarios in which neither the oil market dries up, nor prices manage to stabilize at much higher levels and push freights down. We have seen many times during previous output cuts that there have been some non-compliant members and we won’t be surprised to see certain producing countries eventually ramping up production above what was agreed this time as well.
Not only would such a development restore part of the cargoes lost, but it would also cause great dissatisfaction to compliant members that would start losing market share due to non-compliance and this could eventually lead to a new price war as a result. In addition to that, global demand for oil will gradually begin to increase as countries around the world eventually start to exit the pandemic emergency state and return to normality, while let’s not forget the amount of tonnage that has been used for storage and will not be competing for business in the tanker market.
By Ilias M. Lalaounis
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 19 March 20
BIMCO REVISES 2020 FORECAST FOR MAIN SHIPPING MARKETS
The coronavirus pandemic is impacting global shipping demand for 2020 negatively. The speed of the virus spread makes it difficult to assess the fu ...
Thursday, 19 March 20
U.S. COAL EXPORTS DECLINED IN 2019 - EIA
In 2019, U.S. coal exports declined to 93 million short tons (MMst), a 20% decrease from the previous year, according to the U.S. Energy Informatio ...
Thursday, 19 March 20
SOUTH KOREA'S KOSPO INVITED BIDS FOR MIN 3,700 OR MIN 4,200 NCV LOW CALORIFIC VALUE COAL
COALspot.com: Korea Southern Power Co., Ltd. (KOSPO), has issued an international tender for total 160,000 MT (±10%) (80,000 x 2 Panamax) of ...
Wednesday, 18 March 20
DRY BULK: INDONESIAN COAL CARGOES PROVIDING A BIG BOOST IN THE EAST WHERE SENTIMENT FOR HANDIES ALSO STARTED IMPROVING - INTERMODAL
The BDI ended last week with small gains on the back of an encouraging number of cargoes out of key trading regions that helped sustain the reserve ...
Wednesday, 18 March 20
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Despite we all knew about the Covid-19 weeks ago, few could realize the size of the thread until the last few days. The examples of China and Italy ...
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- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Australian Coal Association
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- The University of Queensland
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
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