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Thursday, 16 April 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 As everyone anticipated the results of the OPEC + G20 meeting last week, it was very interesting to watch the reaction of tanker rates that were in a bull run lately. Amidst an oversupplied oil market and expectations of production cuts and consequent oil price hikes, the large contango effect has made profitable several storage plays during the past couple of months, occupying a lot of ships as a result, while in addition to that, several countries decided (amid bottoming oil prices and the Coronavirus pandemic emergency) to increase to the maximum their strategic petroleum reserves (e.g. the US SPR already has 634 million barrels in storage vs. a total capacity of 713 million barrels).
Key stakeholders in the industry created an additional hype by characterizing this meeting as one of the most important and historic events in the last two decades, creating expectations that any deal would lead to a further spike in short-term activity. There were of course also some less optimistic voices in the industry insisting that deal or no-deal the tanker market remained fundamentally weak in the long term, with the pandemic restrictive measures around the world already leading to a 25-35 million b/d or 30% decrease in demand. Following the end of the meeting, OPEC+ announced output cuts of 9.7m b/d for May and June, 8m b/d for the remainder of 2020 and 6 million b/d for the period January 2021-April 2022. The record cuts we are about to witness in the next couple of months are almost equal to 10% of global supply, while together with non-OPEC+ member cuts the figure could even reach the equivalent of 1/5 of global supply.
This means that May onwards cargo loadings will definitely see significant declines and this will most likely have a negative impact on the tanker freight market. Because of this expectation, we could possibly see producing countries trying to pump out as much product as possible before the agreement enters into effect, which could offer some support to the tanker market before we reach May 1st.
Looking further ahead and as “expecting the unexpected” is something everyone must have gotten used to by now, I’d say that there are a few possible scenarios in which neither the oil market dries up, nor prices manage to stabilize at much higher levels and push freights down. We have seen many times during previous output cuts that there have been some non-compliant members and we won’t be surprised to see certain producing countries eventually ramping up production above what was agreed this time as well.
Not only would such a development restore part of the cargoes lost, but it would also cause great dissatisfaction to compliant members that would start losing market share due to non-compliance and this could eventually lead to a new price war as a result. In addition to that, global demand for oil will gradually begin to increase as countries around the world eventually start to exit the pandemic emergency state and return to normality, while let’s not forget the amount of tonnage that has been used for storage and will not be competing for business in the tanker market.
By Ilias M. Lalaounis
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 20 March 20
VOLATILITY TO INCREASE IN TANKER MARKET FOLLOWING OIL PRICE WAR - DREWRY
Crude oil prices plunged by more than a third in the past week after OPEC+ failed to agree on production cut as demand softened in the aftermath of ...
Friday, 20 March 20
CHINA'S BENCHMARK POWER COAL PRICE DROPS SLIGHTLY - XINHUA
China’s benchmark power coal price dropped slightly during the past week.
The Bohai-Rim Steam-Coal Price Index (BSPI), a gauge ...
Friday, 20 March 20
OIL PRICES COULD FALL BELOW ZERO: ANALYST - FOX BUSINESS
Plunging oil prices could be headed a lot lower – possibly below zero, according to one Wall Street analyst.
West Texas Interm ...
Friday, 20 March 20
84% OF FEBRUARY BUNKER SALES IN SINGAPORE ARE LOW-SULPHUR FUELS - BIMCO
Low-sulphur fuels accounted for 84% of total February sales in Singapore, slightly up from 83% in January. The sale of low-sulphur fuel oil (LSFO) ...
Thursday, 19 March 20
A CRUDE TSUNAMI: UP TO 3 MILLION BPD OF EXTRA OIL CAN HIT THE MARKET FROM APRIL, MORE COMING IN MAY - RYSTAD ENERGY
The extra oil coming into the global market from April will be as much as 3 million barrels per day (bpd), Rystad Energy estimates. Two million bpd ...
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- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- The University of Queensland
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
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