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Thursday, 16 April 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 As everyone anticipated the results of the OPEC + G20 meeting last week, it was very interesting to watch the reaction of tanker rates that were in a bull run lately. Amidst an oversupplied oil market and expectations of production cuts and consequent oil price hikes, the large contango effect has made profitable several storage plays during the past couple of months, occupying a lot of ships as a result, while in addition to that, several countries decided (amid bottoming oil prices and the Coronavirus pandemic emergency) to increase to the maximum their strategic petroleum reserves (e.g. the US SPR already has 634 million barrels in storage vs. a total capacity of 713 million barrels).
Key stakeholders in the industry created an additional hype by characterizing this meeting as one of the most important and historic events in the last two decades, creating expectations that any deal would lead to a further spike in short-term activity. There were of course also some less optimistic voices in the industry insisting that deal or no-deal the tanker market remained fundamentally weak in the long term, with the pandemic restrictive measures around the world already leading to a 25-35 million b/d or 30% decrease in demand. Following the end of the meeting, OPEC+ announced output cuts of 9.7m b/d for May and June, 8m b/d for the remainder of 2020 and 6 million b/d for the period January 2021-April 2022. The record cuts we are about to witness in the next couple of months are almost equal to 10% of global supply, while together with non-OPEC+ member cuts the figure could even reach the equivalent of 1/5 of global supply.
This means that May onwards cargo loadings will definitely see significant declines and this will most likely have a negative impact on the tanker freight market. Because of this expectation, we could possibly see producing countries trying to pump out as much product as possible before the agreement enters into effect, which could offer some support to the tanker market before we reach May 1st.
Looking further ahead and as “expecting the unexpected” is something everyone must have gotten used to by now, I’d say that there are a few possible scenarios in which neither the oil market dries up, nor prices manage to stabilize at much higher levels and push freights down. We have seen many times during previous output cuts that there have been some non-compliant members and we won’t be surprised to see certain producing countries eventually ramping up production above what was agreed this time as well.
Not only would such a development restore part of the cargoes lost, but it would also cause great dissatisfaction to compliant members that would start losing market share due to non-compliance and this could eventually lead to a new price war as a result. In addition to that, global demand for oil will gradually begin to increase as countries around the world eventually start to exit the pandemic emergency state and return to normality, while let’s not forget the amount of tonnage that has been used for storage and will not be competing for business in the tanker market.
By Ilias M. Lalaounis
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 25 March 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
There is no doubt that the Covid-19 pandemic crisis is a world-shattering event that will change the world as we know it. Societies are facing chal ...
Wednesday, 25 March 20
INDONESIA TO CANCEL RULES REQUIRING DOMESTIC SHIPS FOR COAL, PALM EXPORTS : REFINITIV
Indonesia's government will revoke rules requiring exporters of coal and palm oil to use domestic shipping companies for shipments, Coordinatin ...
Wednesday, 25 March 20
JAN-FEB 2020, INDONESIA SHIPPED 64.5 MLN TONNES OF COAL, UP +3.4% YOY - BANCHERO COSTA
In the 12 months of calendar 2019, Indonesia exported 386.4 mln tonnes of coal, according to vessel tracking data from Refinitiv. This represents a ...
Tuesday, 24 March 20
MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED
As countries around the world struggle to take back control of the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic the global economy shuts down bit by bit, leaving only ...
Tuesday, 24 March 20
THE TRIPLE SHOCK OF CORONAVIRUS IN SHIPPING: WILL IT LAST? - DREWRY
Transport capacity shortages, disruptions to supply chains and inability to plan since late January have been a dangerous combination. But will all ...
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- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Australian Coal Association
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Planning Commission, India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- PTC India Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
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