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Thursday, 16 April 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 As everyone anticipated the results of the OPEC + G20 meeting last week, it was very interesting to watch the reaction of tanker rates that were in a bull run lately. Amidst an oversupplied oil market and expectations of production cuts and consequent oil price hikes, the large contango effect has made profitable several storage plays during the past couple of months, occupying a lot of ships as a result, while in addition to that, several countries decided (amid bottoming oil prices and the Coronavirus pandemic emergency) to increase to the maximum their strategic petroleum reserves (e.g. the US SPR already has 634 million barrels in storage vs. a total capacity of 713 million barrels).
Key stakeholders in the industry created an additional hype by characterizing this meeting as one of the most important and historic events in the last two decades, creating expectations that any deal would lead to a further spike in short-term activity. There were of course also some less optimistic voices in the industry insisting that deal or no-deal the tanker market remained fundamentally weak in the long term, with the pandemic restrictive measures around the world already leading to a 25-35 million b/d or 30% decrease in demand. Following the end of the meeting, OPEC+ announced output cuts of 9.7m b/d for May and June, 8m b/d for the remainder of 2020 and 6 million b/d for the period January 2021-April 2022. The record cuts we are about to witness in the next couple of months are almost equal to 10% of global supply, while together with non-OPEC+ member cuts the figure could even reach the equivalent of 1/5 of global supply.
This means that May onwards cargo loadings will definitely see significant declines and this will most likely have a negative impact on the tanker freight market. Because of this expectation, we could possibly see producing countries trying to pump out as much product as possible before the agreement enters into effect, which could offer some support to the tanker market before we reach May 1st.
Looking further ahead and as “expecting the unexpected” is something everyone must have gotten used to by now, I’d say that there are a few possible scenarios in which neither the oil market dries up, nor prices manage to stabilize at much higher levels and push freights down. We have seen many times during previous output cuts that there have been some non-compliant members and we won’t be surprised to see certain producing countries eventually ramping up production above what was agreed this time as well.
Not only would such a development restore part of the cargoes lost, but it would also cause great dissatisfaction to compliant members that would start losing market share due to non-compliance and this could eventually lead to a new price war as a result. In addition to that, global demand for oil will gradually begin to increase as countries around the world eventually start to exit the pandemic emergency state and return to normality, while let’s not forget the amount of tonnage that has been used for storage and will not be competing for business in the tanker market.
By Ilias M. Lalaounis
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 24 March 20
CHINA TAIYUAN COAL TRANSACTION PRICE INDEX DOWN 0.28 PCT - XINHUA
China Taiyuan coal transaction price index stood at 132.74 points Monday, down 0.28 percent week on week.
The index, released by Chi ...
Monday, 23 March 20
CHARTERPARTY REQUIREMENTS TO NOTIFY CLAIMS - TAKE CARE! - WFW
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Voyage charterparties frequently require the owner to notify any claim with supporting documents within a relatively shor ...
Monday, 23 March 20
COAL INDIA LIMITED'S ONE-DAY OUTPUT PEAKS AT 3.17 MT - THE HINDU
Coal India Limited (CIL) output peaked at a new high of 3.17 million tonnes (MT) on March 20, overtaking the 3.14 MT production recorded on March 2 ...
Monday, 23 March 20
KOMIPO INVITED BIDS FOR 1.45 MILLION TONS OF COAL FOR JUNE & JULY 2020 LOADING
COALspot.com: Korea Midland Power Co.,Ltd (KOMIPO), on behalf of five Korean Gencos, has issued an international tender for total 1,450,000 MT (&pl ...
Saturday, 21 March 20
PANAMAX: 82,000DWT SHIP AGREED $4,250 FOR A COAL TRIP VIA INDONESIA REDELIVERY SOUTH CHINA - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The Capesize market made some headway this past week despite being buffeted by the global pandemic storm. With the market in a constan ...
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- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- PTC India Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- White Energy Company Limited
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
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