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Thursday, 16 April 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 As everyone anticipated the results of the OPEC + G20 meeting last week, it was very interesting to watch the reaction of tanker rates that were in a bull run lately. Amidst an oversupplied oil market and expectations of production cuts and consequent oil price hikes, the large contango effect has made profitable several storage plays during the past couple of months, occupying a lot of ships as a result, while in addition to that, several countries decided (amid bottoming oil prices and the Coronavirus pandemic emergency) to increase to the maximum their strategic petroleum reserves (e.g. the US SPR already has 634 million barrels in storage vs. a total capacity of 713 million barrels).
Key stakeholders in the industry created an additional hype by characterizing this meeting as one of the most important and historic events in the last two decades, creating expectations that any deal would lead to a further spike in short-term activity. There were of course also some less optimistic voices in the industry insisting that deal or no-deal the tanker market remained fundamentally weak in the long term, with the pandemic restrictive measures around the world already leading to a 25-35 million b/d or 30% decrease in demand. Following the end of the meeting, OPEC+ announced output cuts of 9.7m b/d for May and June, 8m b/d for the remainder of 2020 and 6 million b/d for the period January 2021-April 2022. The record cuts we are about to witness in the next couple of months are almost equal to 10% of global supply, while together with non-OPEC+ member cuts the figure could even reach the equivalent of 1/5 of global supply.
This means that May onwards cargo loadings will definitely see significant declines and this will most likely have a negative impact on the tanker freight market. Because of this expectation, we could possibly see producing countries trying to pump out as much product as possible before the agreement enters into effect, which could offer some support to the tanker market before we reach May 1st.
Looking further ahead and as “expecting the unexpected” is something everyone must have gotten used to by now, I’d say that there are a few possible scenarios in which neither the oil market dries up, nor prices manage to stabilize at much higher levels and push freights down. We have seen many times during previous output cuts that there have been some non-compliant members and we won’t be surprised to see certain producing countries eventually ramping up production above what was agreed this time as well.
Not only would such a development restore part of the cargoes lost, but it would also cause great dissatisfaction to compliant members that would start losing market share due to non-compliance and this could eventually lead to a new price war as a result. In addition to that, global demand for oil will gradually begin to increase as countries around the world eventually start to exit the pandemic emergency state and return to normality, while let’s not forget the amount of tonnage that has been used for storage and will not be competing for business in the tanker market.
By Ilias M. Lalaounis
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 27 March 20
CHINA'S BULKS: THE SENTIMENT GAP BETWEEN STEEL AND COAL WIDENS - WOOD MACKENZIE
China seems to be containing its local coronavirus situation, with imported cases now posing the greater threat. While quarantine measures remain t ...
Friday, 27 March 20
S.KOREA Q1 THERMAL COAL IMPORTS SET FOR 10-YR LOW ON ANTI-POLLUTION MEASURES - REUTERS
South Korea’s first-quarter thermal coal imports are set to fall to a decade-low due to stricter air pollution measures, while the coronaviru ...
Friday, 27 March 20
PORT OF NEWCASTLE OPERATIONS CONTINUE WITH COVID-19 RESPONSE MEASURES IN PLACE
Port of Newcastle, like many organisations, is taking a precautionary approach to help manage COVID-19 risks in the community. Our focus is on ensu ...
Thursday, 26 March 20
CHINA'S BENCHMARK POWER COAL PRICE DROPS SLIGHTLY - XINHUA
China’s benchmark power coal price dropped slightly during the past week.
The Bohai-Rim Steam-Coal Price Index (BSPI), a gauge ...
Wednesday, 25 March 20
CORONAVIRUS CRISIS IS CRUSHING GLOBAL GDP GROWTH - FITCH RATINGS
The coronavirus crisis is crushing global GDP growth according to Fitch Ratings in its latest quarterly “Global Economic Outlook” (GEO) ...
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- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Planning Commission, India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Australian Coal Association
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- CNBM International Corporation - China
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