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Thursday, 16 April 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 As everyone anticipated the results of the OPEC + G20 meeting last week, it was very interesting to watch the reaction of tanker rates that were in a bull run lately. Amidst an oversupplied oil market and expectations of production cuts and consequent oil price hikes, the large contango effect has made profitable several storage plays during the past couple of months, occupying a lot of ships as a result, while in addition to that, several countries decided (amid bottoming oil prices and the Coronavirus pandemic emergency) to increase to the maximum their strategic petroleum reserves (e.g. the US SPR already has 634 million barrels in storage vs. a total capacity of 713 million barrels).
Key stakeholders in the industry created an additional hype by characterizing this meeting as one of the most important and historic events in the last two decades, creating expectations that any deal would lead to a further spike in short-term activity. There were of course also some less optimistic voices in the industry insisting that deal or no-deal the tanker market remained fundamentally weak in the long term, with the pandemic restrictive measures around the world already leading to a 25-35 million b/d or 30% decrease in demand. Following the end of the meeting, OPEC+ announced output cuts of 9.7m b/d for May and June, 8m b/d for the remainder of 2020 and 6 million b/d for the period January 2021-April 2022. The record cuts we are about to witness in the next couple of months are almost equal to 10% of global supply, while together with non-OPEC+ member cuts the figure could even reach the equivalent of 1/5 of global supply.
This means that May onwards cargo loadings will definitely see significant declines and this will most likely have a negative impact on the tanker freight market. Because of this expectation, we could possibly see producing countries trying to pump out as much product as possible before the agreement enters into effect, which could offer some support to the tanker market before we reach May 1st.
Looking further ahead and as “expecting the unexpected” is something everyone must have gotten used to by now, I’d say that there are a few possible scenarios in which neither the oil market dries up, nor prices manage to stabilize at much higher levels and push freights down. We have seen many times during previous output cuts that there have been some non-compliant members and we won’t be surprised to see certain producing countries eventually ramping up production above what was agreed this time as well.
Not only would such a development restore part of the cargoes lost, but it would also cause great dissatisfaction to compliant members that would start losing market share due to non-compliance and this could eventually lead to a new price war as a result. In addition to that, global demand for oil will gradually begin to increase as countries around the world eventually start to exit the pandemic emergency state and return to normality, while let’s not forget the amount of tonnage that has been used for storage and will not be competing for business in the tanker market.
By Ilias M. Lalaounis
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 27 March 20
CHINA'S BULKS: THE SENTIMENT GAP BETWEEN STEEL AND COAL WIDENS - WOOD MACKENZIE
China seems to be containing its local coronavirus situation, with imported cases now posing the greater threat. While quarantine measures remain t ...
Friday, 27 March 20
S.KOREA Q1 THERMAL COAL IMPORTS SET FOR 10-YR LOW ON ANTI-POLLUTION MEASURES - REUTERS
South Korea’s first-quarter thermal coal imports are set to fall to a decade-low due to stricter air pollution measures, while the coronaviru ...
Friday, 27 March 20
PORT OF NEWCASTLE OPERATIONS CONTINUE WITH COVID-19 RESPONSE MEASURES IN PLACE
Port of Newcastle, like many organisations, is taking a precautionary approach to help manage COVID-19 risks in the community. Our focus is on ensu ...
Thursday, 26 March 20
CHINA'S BENCHMARK POWER COAL PRICE DROPS SLIGHTLY - XINHUA
China’s benchmark power coal price dropped slightly during the past week.
The Bohai-Rim Steam-Coal Price Index (BSPI), a gauge ...
Wednesday, 25 March 20
CORONAVIRUS CRISIS IS CRUSHING GLOBAL GDP GROWTH - FITCH RATINGS
The coronavirus crisis is crushing global GDP growth according to Fitch Ratings in its latest quarterly “Global Economic Outlook” (GEO) ...
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- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
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- Anglo American - United Kingdom
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- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
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- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- The University of Queensland
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- ICICI Bank Limited - India
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- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Australian Coal Association
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- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
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- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
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- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
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- Minerals Council of Australia
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- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- MS Steel International - UAE
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
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- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
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- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
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