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Thursday, 16 April 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 As everyone anticipated the results of the OPEC + G20 meeting last week, it was very interesting to watch the reaction of tanker rates that were in a bull run lately. Amidst an oversupplied oil market and expectations of production cuts and consequent oil price hikes, the large contango effect has made profitable several storage plays during the past couple of months, occupying a lot of ships as a result, while in addition to that, several countries decided (amid bottoming oil prices and the Coronavirus pandemic emergency) to increase to the maximum their strategic petroleum reserves (e.g. the US SPR already has 634 million barrels in storage vs. a total capacity of 713 million barrels).
Key stakeholders in the industry created an additional hype by characterizing this meeting as one of the most important and historic events in the last two decades, creating expectations that any deal would lead to a further spike in short-term activity. There were of course also some less optimistic voices in the industry insisting that deal or no-deal the tanker market remained fundamentally weak in the long term, with the pandemic restrictive measures around the world already leading to a 25-35 million b/d or 30% decrease in demand. Following the end of the meeting, OPEC+ announced output cuts of 9.7m b/d for May and June, 8m b/d for the remainder of 2020 and 6 million b/d for the period January 2021-April 2022. The record cuts we are about to witness in the next couple of months are almost equal to 10% of global supply, while together with non-OPEC+ member cuts the figure could even reach the equivalent of 1/5 of global supply.
This means that May onwards cargo loadings will definitely see significant declines and this will most likely have a negative impact on the tanker freight market. Because of this expectation, we could possibly see producing countries trying to pump out as much product as possible before the agreement enters into effect, which could offer some support to the tanker market before we reach May 1st.
Looking further ahead and as “expecting the unexpected” is something everyone must have gotten used to by now, I’d say that there are a few possible scenarios in which neither the oil market dries up, nor prices manage to stabilize at much higher levels and push freights down. We have seen many times during previous output cuts that there have been some non-compliant members and we won’t be surprised to see certain producing countries eventually ramping up production above what was agreed this time as well.
Not only would such a development restore part of the cargoes lost, but it would also cause great dissatisfaction to compliant members that would start losing market share due to non-compliance and this could eventually lead to a new price war as a result. In addition to that, global demand for oil will gradually begin to increase as countries around the world eventually start to exit the pandemic emergency state and return to normality, while let’s not forget the amount of tonnage that has been used for storage and will not be competing for business in the tanker market.
By Ilias M. Lalaounis
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 01 April 20
TRADERS SCRAMBLE TO SELL CHEAP CRUDE CARGOES AS GLUT GROWS - REUTERS
Oil traders across the globe are offering cargoes far in advance as rapidly vanishing demand drives key physical crude prices to multi-decade lows, ...
Wednesday, 01 April 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
There is an old, allegedly Chinese, saying suggesting that living in “interesting” times usually refers to times of trouble. The latest ...
Tuesday, 31 March 20
FREIGHT MARKET: DRY BULKERS - SPOT MARKET 23-29 MARCH 2020
Capesize
The rebound in freight rates resumed this past week, with rates man-aging to post further gains by week’s end. The BCI is in negat ...
Tuesday, 31 March 20
DRY BULK: Q1 HAS BEEN THE WORST QUARTER NOTED FOR MORE THAN 3 YEARS NOW - ALLIED RESEARCH
At this point, the Covid-19 pandemic seems to be monopolizing all market (as well as all other) discussions across the world and any market insight ...
Tuesday, 31 March 20
CHINA TAIYUAN COAL TRANSACTION PRICE INDEX DOWN 0.43 PCT - XINHUA
China Taiyuan coal transaction price index stood at 132.17 points Monday, down 0.43 percent week on week.
The index, released by Chi ...
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- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- The University of Queensland
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- PTC India Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- White Energy Company Limited
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
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