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Thursday, 16 April 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 As everyone anticipated the results of the OPEC + G20 meeting last week, it was very interesting to watch the reaction of tanker rates that were in a bull run lately. Amidst an oversupplied oil market and expectations of production cuts and consequent oil price hikes, the large contango effect has made profitable several storage plays during the past couple of months, occupying a lot of ships as a result, while in addition to that, several countries decided (amid bottoming oil prices and the Coronavirus pandemic emergency) to increase to the maximum their strategic petroleum reserves (e.g. the US SPR already has 634 million barrels in storage vs. a total capacity of 713 million barrels).
Key stakeholders in the industry created an additional hype by characterizing this meeting as one of the most important and historic events in the last two decades, creating expectations that any deal would lead to a further spike in short-term activity. There were of course also some less optimistic voices in the industry insisting that deal or no-deal the tanker market remained fundamentally weak in the long term, with the pandemic restrictive measures around the world already leading to a 25-35 million b/d or 30% decrease in demand. Following the end of the meeting, OPEC+ announced output cuts of 9.7m b/d for May and June, 8m b/d for the remainder of 2020 and 6 million b/d for the period January 2021-April 2022. The record cuts we are about to witness in the next couple of months are almost equal to 10% of global supply, while together with non-OPEC+ member cuts the figure could even reach the equivalent of 1/5 of global supply.
This means that May onwards cargo loadings will definitely see significant declines and this will most likely have a negative impact on the tanker freight market. Because of this expectation, we could possibly see producing countries trying to pump out as much product as possible before the agreement enters into effect, which could offer some support to the tanker market before we reach May 1st.
Looking further ahead and as “expecting the unexpected” is something everyone must have gotten used to by now, I’d say that there are a few possible scenarios in which neither the oil market dries up, nor prices manage to stabilize at much higher levels and push freights down. We have seen many times during previous output cuts that there have been some non-compliant members and we won’t be surprised to see certain producing countries eventually ramping up production above what was agreed this time as well.
Not only would such a development restore part of the cargoes lost, but it would also cause great dissatisfaction to compliant members that would start losing market share due to non-compliance and this could eventually lead to a new price war as a result. In addition to that, global demand for oil will gradually begin to increase as countries around the world eventually start to exit the pandemic emergency state and return to normality, while let’s not forget the amount of tonnage that has been used for storage and will not be competing for business in the tanker market.
By Ilias M. Lalaounis
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 01 April 20
TRADERS SCRAMBLE TO SELL CHEAP CRUDE CARGOES AS GLUT GROWS - REUTERS
Oil traders across the globe are offering cargoes far in advance as rapidly vanishing demand drives key physical crude prices to multi-decade lows, ...
Wednesday, 01 April 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
There is an old, allegedly Chinese, saying suggesting that living in “interesting” times usually refers to times of trouble. The latest ...
Tuesday, 31 March 20
FREIGHT MARKET: DRY BULKERS - SPOT MARKET 23-29 MARCH 2020
Capesize
The rebound in freight rates resumed this past week, with rates man-aging to post further gains by week’s end. The BCI is in negat ...
Tuesday, 31 March 20
DRY BULK: Q1 HAS BEEN THE WORST QUARTER NOTED FOR MORE THAN 3 YEARS NOW - ALLIED RESEARCH
At this point, the Covid-19 pandemic seems to be monopolizing all market (as well as all other) discussions across the world and any market insight ...
Tuesday, 31 March 20
CHINA TAIYUAN COAL TRANSACTION PRICE INDEX DOWN 0.43 PCT - XINHUA
China Taiyuan coal transaction price index stood at 132.17 points Monday, down 0.43 percent week on week.
The index, released by Chi ...
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- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Planning Commission, India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Australian Coal Association
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- The University of Queensland
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
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