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Thursday, 16 April 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 As everyone anticipated the results of the OPEC + G20 meeting last week, it was very interesting to watch the reaction of tanker rates that were in a bull run lately. Amidst an oversupplied oil market and expectations of production cuts and consequent oil price hikes, the large contango effect has made profitable several storage plays during the past couple of months, occupying a lot of ships as a result, while in addition to that, several countries decided (amid bottoming oil prices and the Coronavirus pandemic emergency) to increase to the maximum their strategic petroleum reserves (e.g. the US SPR already has 634 million barrels in storage vs. a total capacity of 713 million barrels).
Key stakeholders in the industry created an additional hype by characterizing this meeting as one of the most important and historic events in the last two decades, creating expectations that any deal would lead to a further spike in short-term activity. There were of course also some less optimistic voices in the industry insisting that deal or no-deal the tanker market remained fundamentally weak in the long term, with the pandemic restrictive measures around the world already leading to a 25-35 million b/d or 30% decrease in demand. Following the end of the meeting, OPEC+ announced output cuts of 9.7m b/d for May and June, 8m b/d for the remainder of 2020 and 6 million b/d for the period January 2021-April 2022. The record cuts we are about to witness in the next couple of months are almost equal to 10% of global supply, while together with non-OPEC+ member cuts the figure could even reach the equivalent of 1/5 of global supply.
This means that May onwards cargo loadings will definitely see significant declines and this will most likely have a negative impact on the tanker freight market. Because of this expectation, we could possibly see producing countries trying to pump out as much product as possible before the agreement enters into effect, which could offer some support to the tanker market before we reach May 1st.
Looking further ahead and as “expecting the unexpected” is something everyone must have gotten used to by now, I’d say that there are a few possible scenarios in which neither the oil market dries up, nor prices manage to stabilize at much higher levels and push freights down. We have seen many times during previous output cuts that there have been some non-compliant members and we won’t be surprised to see certain producing countries eventually ramping up production above what was agreed this time as well.
Not only would such a development restore part of the cargoes lost, but it would also cause great dissatisfaction to compliant members that would start losing market share due to non-compliance and this could eventually lead to a new price war as a result. In addition to that, global demand for oil will gradually begin to increase as countries around the world eventually start to exit the pandemic emergency state and return to normality, while let’s not forget the amount of tonnage that has been used for storage and will not be competing for business in the tanker market.
By Ilias M. Lalaounis
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 09 April 20
SUSPENSION OF WRONGFUL TRADING IN LIGHT OF COVID 19 - WF&W
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
DIRECTORS’ PERSONAL LIABILITY FOR WRONGFUL TRADING – RELIEF DURING THE CORONAVIRUS CRISIS
As the UK&rsquo ...
Wednesday, 08 April 20
LESSONS LEARNED FROM SCRUBBER INSTALLATION AND OPERATION - ABS
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
At the beginning of this year, the IMO’s global sulfur cap on marine fuels entered into force and shipowners who ch ...
Wednesday, 08 April 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
With lockdown measures around the globe tightening during the last weeks of Q1, there is finally a feeling that most countries are slowly but stead ...
Tuesday, 07 April 20
SHIPPING MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED
With the first quarter of 2020 now firmly written in the books, it is worth examining what we have witnessed so far in the tanker market. Undoubted ...
Tuesday, 07 April 20
IS CHINA EMBARKING ON A MAJOR EXPANSION OF COAL-FIRED POWER GENERATION? - WOOD MACKENZIE
As energy companies worldwide grapple with the economic impact of the coronavirus pandemic, long-term planning continues. Ahead of the release of t ...
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- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- PTC India Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Planning Commission, India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- The University of Queensland
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
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