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Thursday, 16 April 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 As everyone anticipated the results of the OPEC + G20 meeting last week, it was very interesting to watch the reaction of tanker rates that were in a bull run lately. Amidst an oversupplied oil market and expectations of production cuts and consequent oil price hikes, the large contango effect has made profitable several storage plays during the past couple of months, occupying a lot of ships as a result, while in addition to that, several countries decided (amid bottoming oil prices and the Coronavirus pandemic emergency) to increase to the maximum their strategic petroleum reserves (e.g. the US SPR already has 634 million barrels in storage vs. a total capacity of 713 million barrels).
Key stakeholders in the industry created an additional hype by characterizing this meeting as one of the most important and historic events in the last two decades, creating expectations that any deal would lead to a further spike in short-term activity. There were of course also some less optimistic voices in the industry insisting that deal or no-deal the tanker market remained fundamentally weak in the long term, with the pandemic restrictive measures around the world already leading to a 25-35 million b/d or 30% decrease in demand. Following the end of the meeting, OPEC+ announced output cuts of 9.7m b/d for May and June, 8m b/d for the remainder of 2020 and 6 million b/d for the period January 2021-April 2022. The record cuts we are about to witness in the next couple of months are almost equal to 10% of global supply, while together with non-OPEC+ member cuts the figure could even reach the equivalent of 1/5 of global supply.
This means that May onwards cargo loadings will definitely see significant declines and this will most likely have a negative impact on the tanker freight market. Because of this expectation, we could possibly see producing countries trying to pump out as much product as possible before the agreement enters into effect, which could offer some support to the tanker market before we reach May 1st.
Looking further ahead and as “expecting the unexpected” is something everyone must have gotten used to by now, I’d say that there are a few possible scenarios in which neither the oil market dries up, nor prices manage to stabilize at much higher levels and push freights down. We have seen many times during previous output cuts that there have been some non-compliant members and we won’t be surprised to see certain producing countries eventually ramping up production above what was agreed this time as well.
Not only would such a development restore part of the cargoes lost, but it would also cause great dissatisfaction to compliant members that would start losing market share due to non-compliance and this could eventually lead to a new price war as a result. In addition to that, global demand for oil will gradually begin to increase as countries around the world eventually start to exit the pandemic emergency state and return to normality, while let’s not forget the amount of tonnage that has been used for storage and will not be competing for business in the tanker market.
By Ilias M. Lalaounis
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 09 April 20
SUSPENSION OF WRONGFUL TRADING IN LIGHT OF COVID 19 - WF&W
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
DIRECTORS’ PERSONAL LIABILITY FOR WRONGFUL TRADING – RELIEF DURING THE CORONAVIRUS CRISIS
As the UK&rsquo ...
Wednesday, 08 April 20
LESSONS LEARNED FROM SCRUBBER INSTALLATION AND OPERATION - ABS
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
At the beginning of this year, the IMO’s global sulfur cap on marine fuels entered into force and shipowners who ch ...
Wednesday, 08 April 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
With lockdown measures around the globe tightening during the last weeks of Q1, there is finally a feeling that most countries are slowly but stead ...
Tuesday, 07 April 20
SHIPPING MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED
With the first quarter of 2020 now firmly written in the books, it is worth examining what we have witnessed so far in the tanker market. Undoubted ...
Tuesday, 07 April 20
IS CHINA EMBARKING ON A MAJOR EXPANSION OF COAL-FIRED POWER GENERATION? - WOOD MACKENZIE
As energy companies worldwide grapple with the economic impact of the coronavirus pandemic, long-term planning continues. Ahead of the release of t ...
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- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- White Energy Company Limited
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Australian Coal Association
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- PTC India Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
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