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Thursday, 16 April 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 As everyone anticipated the results of the OPEC + G20 meeting last week, it was very interesting to watch the reaction of tanker rates that were in a bull run lately. Amidst an oversupplied oil market and expectations of production cuts and consequent oil price hikes, the large contango effect has made profitable several storage plays during the past couple of months, occupying a lot of ships as a result, while in addition to that, several countries decided (amid bottoming oil prices and the Coronavirus pandemic emergency) to increase to the maximum their strategic petroleum reserves (e.g. the US SPR already has 634 million barrels in storage vs. a total capacity of 713 million barrels).
Key stakeholders in the industry created an additional hype by characterizing this meeting as one of the most important and historic events in the last two decades, creating expectations that any deal would lead to a further spike in short-term activity. There were of course also some less optimistic voices in the industry insisting that deal or no-deal the tanker market remained fundamentally weak in the long term, with the pandemic restrictive measures around the world already leading to a 25-35 million b/d or 30% decrease in demand. Following the end of the meeting, OPEC+ announced output cuts of 9.7m b/d for May and June, 8m b/d for the remainder of 2020 and 6 million b/d for the period January 2021-April 2022. The record cuts we are about to witness in the next couple of months are almost equal to 10% of global supply, while together with non-OPEC+ member cuts the figure could even reach the equivalent of 1/5 of global supply.
This means that May onwards cargo loadings will definitely see significant declines and this will most likely have a negative impact on the tanker freight market. Because of this expectation, we could possibly see producing countries trying to pump out as much product as possible before the agreement enters into effect, which could offer some support to the tanker market before we reach May 1st.
Looking further ahead and as “expecting the unexpected” is something everyone must have gotten used to by now, I’d say that there are a few possible scenarios in which neither the oil market dries up, nor prices manage to stabilize at much higher levels and push freights down. We have seen many times during previous output cuts that there have been some non-compliant members and we won’t be surprised to see certain producing countries eventually ramping up production above what was agreed this time as well.
Not only would such a development restore part of the cargoes lost, but it would also cause great dissatisfaction to compliant members that would start losing market share due to non-compliance and this could eventually lead to a new price war as a result. In addition to that, global demand for oil will gradually begin to increase as countries around the world eventually start to exit the pandemic emergency state and return to normality, while let’s not forget the amount of tonnage that has been used for storage and will not be competing for business in the tanker market.
By Ilias M. Lalaounis
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 16 April 20
CHINA'S BENCHMARK POWER COAL PRICE FALLS 5 YUAN PER TONNE - XINHUA
China’s benchmark power coal price fell by 5 yuan (about 70 U.S. cents) per tonne during the past week.
The Bohai-Rim Steam-Co ...
Monday, 13 April 20
SUPRAMAX: A 56,000DWT SHIP WAS FIXED DELIVERY PARADIP, REDELIVERY CHINA, AT $4,700 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The Capesize market this past week looks to have come off life support and found some improved sentiment. The week began rather ordina ...
Saturday, 11 April 20
FAQ: COVID-19 AND CLUB COVER - UK P&I
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
The Coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic has generated a significant number of enquiries and questions from Members in recent ...
Saturday, 11 April 20
KOEN POWER PLANTS INVITED BIDS FOR 1.5 -1.62 MMT OF STEAM COAL
COALspot.com: South Korea’s KOREA SOUTH-EAST POWER CO., LTD. (KOEN) has issued an international tender for 1,500,000-1,620,000 Metric Tons (M ...
Friday, 10 April 20
INDIA'S BULKS SUPPLY CHAIN TAKES A HIT DURING LOCKDOWN - WOOD MACKENZIE
India is under a three-week lockdown from 25 March to contain the spread of the coronavirus outbreak. Businesses are shut, and the supply chain is ...
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- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Planning Commission, India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Australian Coal Association
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
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