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Thursday, 16 April 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 As everyone anticipated the results of the OPEC + G20 meeting last week, it was very interesting to watch the reaction of tanker rates that were in a bull run lately. Amidst an oversupplied oil market and expectations of production cuts and consequent oil price hikes, the large contango effect has made profitable several storage plays during the past couple of months, occupying a lot of ships as a result, while in addition to that, several countries decided (amid bottoming oil prices and the Coronavirus pandemic emergency) to increase to the maximum their strategic petroleum reserves (e.g. the US SPR already has 634 million barrels in storage vs. a total capacity of 713 million barrels).
Key stakeholders in the industry created an additional hype by characterizing this meeting as one of the most important and historic events in the last two decades, creating expectations that any deal would lead to a further spike in short-term activity. There were of course also some less optimistic voices in the industry insisting that deal or no-deal the tanker market remained fundamentally weak in the long term, with the pandemic restrictive measures around the world already leading to a 25-35 million b/d or 30% decrease in demand. Following the end of the meeting, OPEC+ announced output cuts of 9.7m b/d for May and June, 8m b/d for the remainder of 2020 and 6 million b/d for the period January 2021-April 2022. The record cuts we are about to witness in the next couple of months are almost equal to 10% of global supply, while together with non-OPEC+ member cuts the figure could even reach the equivalent of 1/5 of global supply.
This means that May onwards cargo loadings will definitely see significant declines and this will most likely have a negative impact on the tanker freight market. Because of this expectation, we could possibly see producing countries trying to pump out as much product as possible before the agreement enters into effect, which could offer some support to the tanker market before we reach May 1st.
Looking further ahead and as “expecting the unexpected” is something everyone must have gotten used to by now, I’d say that there are a few possible scenarios in which neither the oil market dries up, nor prices manage to stabilize at much higher levels and push freights down. We have seen many times during previous output cuts that there have been some non-compliant members and we won’t be surprised to see certain producing countries eventually ramping up production above what was agreed this time as well.
Not only would such a development restore part of the cargoes lost, but it would also cause great dissatisfaction to compliant members that would start losing market share due to non-compliance and this could eventually lead to a new price war as a result. In addition to that, global demand for oil will gradually begin to increase as countries around the world eventually start to exit the pandemic emergency state and return to normality, while let’s not forget the amount of tonnage that has been used for storage and will not be competing for business in the tanker market.
By Ilias M. Lalaounis
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 16 April 20
CHINA'S BENCHMARK POWER COAL PRICE FALLS 5 YUAN PER TONNE - XINHUA
China’s benchmark power coal price fell by 5 yuan (about 70 U.S. cents) per tonne during the past week.
The Bohai-Rim Steam-Co ...
Monday, 13 April 20
SUPRAMAX: A 56,000DWT SHIP WAS FIXED DELIVERY PARADIP, REDELIVERY CHINA, AT $4,700 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The Capesize market this past week looks to have come off life support and found some improved sentiment. The week began rather ordina ...
Saturday, 11 April 20
FAQ: COVID-19 AND CLUB COVER - UK P&I
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
The Coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic has generated a significant number of enquiries and questions from Members in recent ...
Saturday, 11 April 20
KOEN POWER PLANTS INVITED BIDS FOR 1.5 -1.62 MMT OF STEAM COAL
COALspot.com: South Korea’s KOREA SOUTH-EAST POWER CO., LTD. (KOEN) has issued an international tender for 1,500,000-1,620,000 Metric Tons (M ...
Friday, 10 April 20
INDIA'S BULKS SUPPLY CHAIN TAKES A HIT DURING LOCKDOWN - WOOD MACKENZIE
India is under a three-week lockdown from 25 March to contain the spread of the coronavirus outbreak. Businesses are shut, and the supply chain is ...
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- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- The University of Queensland
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
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