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Thursday, 16 April 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 As everyone anticipated the results of the OPEC + G20 meeting last week, it was very interesting to watch the reaction of tanker rates that were in a bull run lately. Amidst an oversupplied oil market and expectations of production cuts and consequent oil price hikes, the large contango effect has made profitable several storage plays during the past couple of months, occupying a lot of ships as a result, while in addition to that, several countries decided (amid bottoming oil prices and the Coronavirus pandemic emergency) to increase to the maximum their strategic petroleum reserves (e.g. the US SPR already has 634 million barrels in storage vs. a total capacity of 713 million barrels).
Key stakeholders in the industry created an additional hype by characterizing this meeting as one of the most important and historic events in the last two decades, creating expectations that any deal would lead to a further spike in short-term activity. There were of course also some less optimistic voices in the industry insisting that deal or no-deal the tanker market remained fundamentally weak in the long term, with the pandemic restrictive measures around the world already leading to a 25-35 million b/d or 30% decrease in demand. Following the end of the meeting, OPEC+ announced output cuts of 9.7m b/d for May and June, 8m b/d for the remainder of 2020 and 6 million b/d for the period January 2021-April 2022. The record cuts we are about to witness in the next couple of months are almost equal to 10% of global supply, while together with non-OPEC+ member cuts the figure could even reach the equivalent of 1/5 of global supply.
This means that May onwards cargo loadings will definitely see significant declines and this will most likely have a negative impact on the tanker freight market. Because of this expectation, we could possibly see producing countries trying to pump out as much product as possible before the agreement enters into effect, which could offer some support to the tanker market before we reach May 1st.
Looking further ahead and as “expecting the unexpected” is something everyone must have gotten used to by now, I’d say that there are a few possible scenarios in which neither the oil market dries up, nor prices manage to stabilize at much higher levels and push freights down. We have seen many times during previous output cuts that there have been some non-compliant members and we won’t be surprised to see certain producing countries eventually ramping up production above what was agreed this time as well.
Not only would such a development restore part of the cargoes lost, but it would also cause great dissatisfaction to compliant members that would start losing market share due to non-compliance and this could eventually lead to a new price war as a result. In addition to that, global demand for oil will gradually begin to increase as countries around the world eventually start to exit the pandemic emergency state and return to normality, while let’s not forget the amount of tonnage that has been used for storage and will not be competing for business in the tanker market.
By Ilias M. Lalaounis
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 07 April 20
COAL INDIA'S DISPATCHES DROP, OUTPUT INCREASES - THE HINDU
India’s largest coal producer Coal India Ltd. (CIL) has seen a 10% fall in dispatches in March 2020 due to a sharp fall in demand from the po ...
Tuesday, 07 April 20
CORONAVIRUS AND LOCKDOWNS DRAG DOWN THE INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE IN APRIL
COALspot.com: The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources of the Republic of Indonesia has revised down the benchmark price of the Indonesian ther ...
Monday, 06 April 20
A 52,000DWT SHIP FIXING DELIVERY SINGAPORE TRIP, VIA INDONESIA, REDELIVERY TAIWAN, AT $3,100 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The Capesize market this past week looks to have come off life support and found some improved sentiment. The week began rather ordina ...
Monday, 06 April 20
INDIA'S 21-DAY LOCKDOWN - IMPACT ON COMMODITIES? - WOOD MACKENZIE
India is under a three-week lockdown from 25 March, to contain the spread of the coronavirus outbreak. Wood Mackenzie analysts discuss what this me ...
Friday, 03 April 20
CHINA'S BENCHMARK POWER COAL PRICE DROPS SLIGHTLY - XINHUA
China’s benchmark power coal price dropped slightly during the past week.
The Bohai-Rim Steam-Coal Price Index (BSPI), a gauge ...
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- Parliament of New Zealand
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Planning Commission, India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
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