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Thursday, 16 April 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 As everyone anticipated the results of the OPEC + G20 meeting last week, it was very interesting to watch the reaction of tanker rates that were in a bull run lately. Amidst an oversupplied oil market and expectations of production cuts and consequent oil price hikes, the large contango effect has made profitable several storage plays during the past couple of months, occupying a lot of ships as a result, while in addition to that, several countries decided (amid bottoming oil prices and the Coronavirus pandemic emergency) to increase to the maximum their strategic petroleum reserves (e.g. the US SPR already has 634 million barrels in storage vs. a total capacity of 713 million barrels).
Key stakeholders in the industry created an additional hype by characterizing this meeting as one of the most important and historic events in the last two decades, creating expectations that any deal would lead to a further spike in short-term activity. There were of course also some less optimistic voices in the industry insisting that deal or no-deal the tanker market remained fundamentally weak in the long term, with the pandemic restrictive measures around the world already leading to a 25-35 million b/d or 30% decrease in demand. Following the end of the meeting, OPEC+ announced output cuts of 9.7m b/d for May and June, 8m b/d for the remainder of 2020 and 6 million b/d for the period January 2021-April 2022. The record cuts we are about to witness in the next couple of months are almost equal to 10% of global supply, while together with non-OPEC+ member cuts the figure could even reach the equivalent of 1/5 of global supply.
This means that May onwards cargo loadings will definitely see significant declines and this will most likely have a negative impact on the tanker freight market. Because of this expectation, we could possibly see producing countries trying to pump out as much product as possible before the agreement enters into effect, which could offer some support to the tanker market before we reach May 1st.
Looking further ahead and as “expecting the unexpected” is something everyone must have gotten used to by now, I’d say that there are a few possible scenarios in which neither the oil market dries up, nor prices manage to stabilize at much higher levels and push freights down. We have seen many times during previous output cuts that there have been some non-compliant members and we won’t be surprised to see certain producing countries eventually ramping up production above what was agreed this time as well.
Not only would such a development restore part of the cargoes lost, but it would also cause great dissatisfaction to compliant members that would start losing market share due to non-compliance and this could eventually lead to a new price war as a result. In addition to that, global demand for oil will gradually begin to increase as countries around the world eventually start to exit the pandemic emergency state and return to normality, while let’s not forget the amount of tonnage that has been used for storage and will not be competing for business in the tanker market.
By Ilias M. Lalaounis
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 07 April 20
COAL INDIA'S DISPATCHES DROP, OUTPUT INCREASES - THE HINDU
India’s largest coal producer Coal India Ltd. (CIL) has seen a 10% fall in dispatches in March 2020 due to a sharp fall in demand from the po ...
Tuesday, 07 April 20
CORONAVIRUS AND LOCKDOWNS DRAG DOWN THE INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE IN APRIL
COALspot.com: The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources of the Republic of Indonesia has revised down the benchmark price of the Indonesian ther ...
Monday, 06 April 20
A 52,000DWT SHIP FIXING DELIVERY SINGAPORE TRIP, VIA INDONESIA, REDELIVERY TAIWAN, AT $3,100 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The Capesize market this past week looks to have come off life support and found some improved sentiment. The week began rather ordina ...
Monday, 06 April 20
INDIA'S 21-DAY LOCKDOWN - IMPACT ON COMMODITIES? - WOOD MACKENZIE
India is under a three-week lockdown from 25 March, to contain the spread of the coronavirus outbreak. Wood Mackenzie analysts discuss what this me ...
Friday, 03 April 20
CHINA'S BENCHMARK POWER COAL PRICE DROPS SLIGHTLY - XINHUA
China’s benchmark power coal price dropped slightly during the past week.
The Bohai-Rim Steam-Coal Price Index (BSPI), a gauge ...
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- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Australian Coal Association
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- The University of Queensland
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
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