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Thursday, 16 April 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 As everyone anticipated the results of the OPEC + G20 meeting last week, it was very interesting to watch the reaction of tanker rates that were in a bull run lately. Amidst an oversupplied oil market and expectations of production cuts and consequent oil price hikes, the large contango effect has made profitable several storage plays during the past couple of months, occupying a lot of ships as a result, while in addition to that, several countries decided (amid bottoming oil prices and the Coronavirus pandemic emergency) to increase to the maximum their strategic petroleum reserves (e.g. the US SPR already has 634 million barrels in storage vs. a total capacity of 713 million barrels).
Key stakeholders in the industry created an additional hype by characterizing this meeting as one of the most important and historic events in the last two decades, creating expectations that any deal would lead to a further spike in short-term activity. There were of course also some less optimistic voices in the industry insisting that deal or no-deal the tanker market remained fundamentally weak in the long term, with the pandemic restrictive measures around the world already leading to a 25-35 million b/d or 30% decrease in demand. Following the end of the meeting, OPEC+ announced output cuts of 9.7m b/d for May and June, 8m b/d for the remainder of 2020 and 6 million b/d for the period January 2021-April 2022. The record cuts we are about to witness in the next couple of months are almost equal to 10% of global supply, while together with non-OPEC+ member cuts the figure could even reach the equivalent of 1/5 of global supply.
This means that May onwards cargo loadings will definitely see significant declines and this will most likely have a negative impact on the tanker freight market. Because of this expectation, we could possibly see producing countries trying to pump out as much product as possible before the agreement enters into effect, which could offer some support to the tanker market before we reach May 1st.
Looking further ahead and as “expecting the unexpected” is something everyone must have gotten used to by now, I’d say that there are a few possible scenarios in which neither the oil market dries up, nor prices manage to stabilize at much higher levels and push freights down. We have seen many times during previous output cuts that there have been some non-compliant members and we won’t be surprised to see certain producing countries eventually ramping up production above what was agreed this time as well.
Not only would such a development restore part of the cargoes lost, but it would also cause great dissatisfaction to compliant members that would start losing market share due to non-compliance and this could eventually lead to a new price war as a result. In addition to that, global demand for oil will gradually begin to increase as countries around the world eventually start to exit the pandemic emergency state and return to normality, while let’s not forget the amount of tonnage that has been used for storage and will not be competing for business in the tanker market.
By Ilias M. Lalaounis
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 31 March 20
COAL POWER REMAINS IN GLOBAL DECLINE, DESPITE CHINESE SURGE - SYDNEY MORNING HERALD
The impact of coronavirus has prompted a surge in coal-fired power plant construction permits in China, with the Chinese government issuing more pe ...
Monday, 30 March 20
CORONAVIRUS - IMPLICATIONS FOR SHIPS AND CREW - GARD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Countries around the world are strengthening their border control measures in order to prevent the further spread of COVI ...
Monday, 30 March 20
LAY-UP AND RE-ACTIVATION REVISITED - GARD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
The COVID-19 pandemic has affected the maritime industry in previously unthinkable ways. Ports around the world are denyi ...
Monday, 30 March 20
PANAMAX: INDONESIA LACKED VOLUME, PARTLY DUE TO FORCE MAJEURE IN INDIAN PORTS - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
As Covid-19 continued to ratchet up tensions across the globe, the Cape market dealt with the change to remote working. Most regions o ...
Saturday, 28 March 20
ASIA'S COAL MARKETS DIVERGE ON QUALITY LINES AS CORONAVIRUS HITS INDIA - REUTERS
Asia’s seaborne coal market is increasingly diverging between higher-quality Australian coal, where prices are holding up despite the economi ...
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- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
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