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Thursday, 16 April 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 As everyone anticipated the results of the OPEC + G20 meeting last week, it was very interesting to watch the reaction of tanker rates that were in a bull run lately. Amidst an oversupplied oil market and expectations of production cuts and consequent oil price hikes, the large contango effect has made profitable several storage plays during the past couple of months, occupying a lot of ships as a result, while in addition to that, several countries decided (amid bottoming oil prices and the Coronavirus pandemic emergency) to increase to the maximum their strategic petroleum reserves (e.g. the US SPR already has 634 million barrels in storage vs. a total capacity of 713 million barrels).
Key stakeholders in the industry created an additional hype by characterizing this meeting as one of the most important and historic events in the last two decades, creating expectations that any deal would lead to a further spike in short-term activity. There were of course also some less optimistic voices in the industry insisting that deal or no-deal the tanker market remained fundamentally weak in the long term, with the pandemic restrictive measures around the world already leading to a 25-35 million b/d or 30% decrease in demand. Following the end of the meeting, OPEC+ announced output cuts of 9.7m b/d for May and June, 8m b/d for the remainder of 2020 and 6 million b/d for the period January 2021-April 2022. The record cuts we are about to witness in the next couple of months are almost equal to 10% of global supply, while together with non-OPEC+ member cuts the figure could even reach the equivalent of 1/5 of global supply.
This means that May onwards cargo loadings will definitely see significant declines and this will most likely have a negative impact on the tanker freight market. Because of this expectation, we could possibly see producing countries trying to pump out as much product as possible before the agreement enters into effect, which could offer some support to the tanker market before we reach May 1st.
Looking further ahead and as “expecting the unexpected” is something everyone must have gotten used to by now, I’d say that there are a few possible scenarios in which neither the oil market dries up, nor prices manage to stabilize at much higher levels and push freights down. We have seen many times during previous output cuts that there have been some non-compliant members and we won’t be surprised to see certain producing countries eventually ramping up production above what was agreed this time as well.
Not only would such a development restore part of the cargoes lost, but it would also cause great dissatisfaction to compliant members that would start losing market share due to non-compliance and this could eventually lead to a new price war as a result. In addition to that, global demand for oil will gradually begin to increase as countries around the world eventually start to exit the pandemic emergency state and return to normality, while let’s not forget the amount of tonnage that has been used for storage and will not be competing for business in the tanker market.
By Ilias M. Lalaounis
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 24 April 20
COAL INDIA TO PRODUCE 710 MT COAL - MINISTER OF COAL AND MINES
Coal India Limited (CIL) will produce 710 million tonnes (MT) of coal and company’s coal off take target will also remain at710 MT for this f ...
Friday, 24 April 20
CHINA COAL PRODUCER YANZHOU COAL POSTS 9.6 PCT RISE IN 2019 NET PROFIT - XINHUA
China’s major coal producer Yanzhou Coal Mining Co., Ltd. said Thursday that its net profit saw a 9.6 percent rise in 2019.
Th ...
Tuesday, 21 April 20
INDONESIA ACCOUNTS FOR 19% OF JAPAN'S TOTAL COAL IMPORTS - BANCHERO COSTA
Coal trade in Asia is proving remarkably resilient this year, despite the global economic impact from COVID-19.
We have seen China&r ...
Tuesday, 21 April 20
COVID-19: CHARTERPARTY MATTERS FOR SHIPOWNERS - SKULD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Whilst the plight of cruise ships, stranded off shore with sick passengers and crew, may be dominating media headlines, t ...
Monday, 20 April 20
SUPRAMAX: A 52,000DWT SHIP FIXING AN INDONESIA COAL RUN TO CHINA AT $4400 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
This week was the strongest period seen for the Capesize market in several months. All routes globally succumbed to improved sentiment ...
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- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- White Energy Company Limited
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- The University of Queensland
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Parliament of New Zealand
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
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