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Thursday, 16 April 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 As everyone anticipated the results of the OPEC + G20 meeting last week, it was very interesting to watch the reaction of tanker rates that were in a bull run lately. Amidst an oversupplied oil market and expectations of production cuts and consequent oil price hikes, the large contango effect has made profitable several storage plays during the past couple of months, occupying a lot of ships as a result, while in addition to that, several countries decided (amid bottoming oil prices and the Coronavirus pandemic emergency) to increase to the maximum their strategic petroleum reserves (e.g. the US SPR already has 634 million barrels in storage vs. a total capacity of 713 million barrels).
Key stakeholders in the industry created an additional hype by characterizing this meeting as one of the most important and historic events in the last two decades, creating expectations that any deal would lead to a further spike in short-term activity. There were of course also some less optimistic voices in the industry insisting that deal or no-deal the tanker market remained fundamentally weak in the long term, with the pandemic restrictive measures around the world already leading to a 25-35 million b/d or 30% decrease in demand. Following the end of the meeting, OPEC+ announced output cuts of 9.7m b/d for May and June, 8m b/d for the remainder of 2020 and 6 million b/d for the period January 2021-April 2022. The record cuts we are about to witness in the next couple of months are almost equal to 10% of global supply, while together with non-OPEC+ member cuts the figure could even reach the equivalent of 1/5 of global supply.
This means that May onwards cargo loadings will definitely see significant declines and this will most likely have a negative impact on the tanker freight market. Because of this expectation, we could possibly see producing countries trying to pump out as much product as possible before the agreement enters into effect, which could offer some support to the tanker market before we reach May 1st.
Looking further ahead and as “expecting the unexpected” is something everyone must have gotten used to by now, I’d say that there are a few possible scenarios in which neither the oil market dries up, nor prices manage to stabilize at much higher levels and push freights down. We have seen many times during previous output cuts that there have been some non-compliant members and we won’t be surprised to see certain producing countries eventually ramping up production above what was agreed this time as well.
Not only would such a development restore part of the cargoes lost, but it would also cause great dissatisfaction to compliant members that would start losing market share due to non-compliance and this could eventually lead to a new price war as a result. In addition to that, global demand for oil will gradually begin to increase as countries around the world eventually start to exit the pandemic emergency state and return to normality, while let’s not forget the amount of tonnage that has been used for storage and will not be competing for business in the tanker market.
By Ilias M. Lalaounis
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Sunday, 26 April 20
STRONGER BUNKER PRICES FAIL TO RALLY FREIGHT MARKET - FIS
VLSFO bunker prices rebounded by $22.50 to $229/mt in the port of Singapore but failed to turn around the spot freight market.
Some ...
Saturday, 25 April 20
KOREA SOUTH-EAST POWER CO. INVITED BIDS FOR 780K - 900K MT OF 5600 NCV COAL FOR JULY TO OCTOBER 2020 LOADING
COALspot.com: South Korea’s KOREA SOUTH-EAST POWER CO., LTD. (KOEN) has issued an international tender for 780,000~900,000 Metric Tons (MT) s ...
Saturday, 25 April 20
SEAFARER MENTAL WELLBEING DURING THE COVID-19 PANDEMIC - STANDARD CLUB
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
COVID-19 has forced many parts of the world to enforce a lockdown in a bid to flatten the curve in terms of transmissions ...
Friday, 24 April 20
KOMIPO INVITED BIDS FOR 5700 NAR COAL FOR JUNE & JULY LOADING
COALspot.com: South Korea’s Korea Midland Power Co. Ltd. (KOMIPO) Has Issued An International Tender For 260,000 Metric Tons (MT) Steam Coal ...
Friday, 24 April 20
CHINA'S BENCHMARK POWER COAL PRICE REMAINS FLAT - XINHUA
China’s benchmark power coal price remained flat during the past week.
The Bohai-Rim Steam-Coal Price Index (BSPI), a gauge of ...
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- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- PTC India Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Australian Coal Association
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
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