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Thursday, 16 April 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 As everyone anticipated the results of the OPEC + G20 meeting last week, it was very interesting to watch the reaction of tanker rates that were in a bull run lately. Amidst an oversupplied oil market and expectations of production cuts and consequent oil price hikes, the large contango effect has made profitable several storage plays during the past couple of months, occupying a lot of ships as a result, while in addition to that, several countries decided (amid bottoming oil prices and the Coronavirus pandemic emergency) to increase to the maximum their strategic petroleum reserves (e.g. the US SPR already has 634 million barrels in storage vs. a total capacity of 713 million barrels).
Key stakeholders in the industry created an additional hype by characterizing this meeting as one of the most important and historic events in the last two decades, creating expectations that any deal would lead to a further spike in short-term activity. There were of course also some less optimistic voices in the industry insisting that deal or no-deal the tanker market remained fundamentally weak in the long term, with the pandemic restrictive measures around the world already leading to a 25-35 million b/d or 30% decrease in demand. Following the end of the meeting, OPEC+ announced output cuts of 9.7m b/d for May and June, 8m b/d for the remainder of 2020 and 6 million b/d for the period January 2021-April 2022. The record cuts we are about to witness in the next couple of months are almost equal to 10% of global supply, while together with non-OPEC+ member cuts the figure could even reach the equivalent of 1/5 of global supply.
This means that May onwards cargo loadings will definitely see significant declines and this will most likely have a negative impact on the tanker freight market. Because of this expectation, we could possibly see producing countries trying to pump out as much product as possible before the agreement enters into effect, which could offer some support to the tanker market before we reach May 1st.
Looking further ahead and as “expecting the unexpected” is something everyone must have gotten used to by now, I’d say that there are a few possible scenarios in which neither the oil market dries up, nor prices manage to stabilize at much higher levels and push freights down. We have seen many times during previous output cuts that there have been some non-compliant members and we won’t be surprised to see certain producing countries eventually ramping up production above what was agreed this time as well.
Not only would such a development restore part of the cargoes lost, but it would also cause great dissatisfaction to compliant members that would start losing market share due to non-compliance and this could eventually lead to a new price war as a result. In addition to that, global demand for oil will gradually begin to increase as countries around the world eventually start to exit the pandemic emergency state and return to normality, while let’s not forget the amount of tonnage that has been used for storage and will not be competing for business in the tanker market.
By Ilias M. Lalaounis
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Sunday, 26 April 20
STRONGER BUNKER PRICES FAIL TO RALLY FREIGHT MARKET - FIS
VLSFO bunker prices rebounded by $22.50 to $229/mt in the port of Singapore but failed to turn around the spot freight market.
Some ...
Saturday, 25 April 20
KOREA SOUTH-EAST POWER CO. INVITED BIDS FOR 780K - 900K MT OF 5600 NCV COAL FOR JULY TO OCTOBER 2020 LOADING
COALspot.com: South Korea’s KOREA SOUTH-EAST POWER CO., LTD. (KOEN) has issued an international tender for 780,000~900,000 Metric Tons (MT) s ...
Saturday, 25 April 20
SEAFARER MENTAL WELLBEING DURING THE COVID-19 PANDEMIC - STANDARD CLUB
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
COVID-19 has forced many parts of the world to enforce a lockdown in a bid to flatten the curve in terms of transmissions ...
Friday, 24 April 20
KOMIPO INVITED BIDS FOR 5700 NAR COAL FOR JUNE & JULY LOADING
COALspot.com: South Korea’s Korea Midland Power Co. Ltd. (KOMIPO) Has Issued An International Tender For 260,000 Metric Tons (MT) Steam Coal ...
Friday, 24 April 20
CHINA'S BENCHMARK POWER COAL PRICE REMAINS FLAT - XINHUA
China’s benchmark power coal price remained flat during the past week.
The Bohai-Rim Steam-Coal Price Index (BSPI), a gauge of ...
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- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- White Energy Company Limited
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Planning Commission, India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- The University of Queensland
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Australian Coal Association
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
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