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Thursday, 16 April 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 As everyone anticipated the results of the OPEC + G20 meeting last week, it was very interesting to watch the reaction of tanker rates that were in a bull run lately. Amidst an oversupplied oil market and expectations of production cuts and consequent oil price hikes, the large contango effect has made profitable several storage plays during the past couple of months, occupying a lot of ships as a result, while in addition to that, several countries decided (amid bottoming oil prices and the Coronavirus pandemic emergency) to increase to the maximum their strategic petroleum reserves (e.g. the US SPR already has 634 million barrels in storage vs. a total capacity of 713 million barrels).
Key stakeholders in the industry created an additional hype by characterizing this meeting as one of the most important and historic events in the last two decades, creating expectations that any deal would lead to a further spike in short-term activity. There were of course also some less optimistic voices in the industry insisting that deal or no-deal the tanker market remained fundamentally weak in the long term, with the pandemic restrictive measures around the world already leading to a 25-35 million b/d or 30% decrease in demand. Following the end of the meeting, OPEC+ announced output cuts of 9.7m b/d for May and June, 8m b/d for the remainder of 2020 and 6 million b/d for the period January 2021-April 2022. The record cuts we are about to witness in the next couple of months are almost equal to 10% of global supply, while together with non-OPEC+ member cuts the figure could even reach the equivalent of 1/5 of global supply.
This means that May onwards cargo loadings will definitely see significant declines and this will most likely have a negative impact on the tanker freight market. Because of this expectation, we could possibly see producing countries trying to pump out as much product as possible before the agreement enters into effect, which could offer some support to the tanker market before we reach May 1st.
Looking further ahead and as “expecting the unexpected” is something everyone must have gotten used to by now, I’d say that there are a few possible scenarios in which neither the oil market dries up, nor prices manage to stabilize at much higher levels and push freights down. We have seen many times during previous output cuts that there have been some non-compliant members and we won’t be surprised to see certain producing countries eventually ramping up production above what was agreed this time as well.
Not only would such a development restore part of the cargoes lost, but it would also cause great dissatisfaction to compliant members that would start losing market share due to non-compliance and this could eventually lead to a new price war as a result. In addition to that, global demand for oil will gradually begin to increase as countries around the world eventually start to exit the pandemic emergency state and return to normality, while let’s not forget the amount of tonnage that has been used for storage and will not be competing for business in the tanker market.
By Ilias M. Lalaounis
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 01 May 20
GLOBAL COAL DEMAND TO FALL BY 8% IN Q1 2020 RELATIVE TO Q1 2019 - IEA
We expect global coal demand to fall by 8% in Q1 2020 relative to Q1 2019. This significant drop was driven by lower demand in the electricity sect ...
Friday, 01 May 20
LUKOIL SHARES LUBRICANT EXPERIENCE AFTER FIRST 100 DAYS OF OPERATION ON VLSFO
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
After 100 days of VLSFO operation, LUKOIL Marine Lubricants is sharing recent experience on VLSFO operation with NAVIGO M ...
Wednesday, 29 April 20
OIL CLOSES IN ON PEAK OVERSUPPLY - WOOD MACKENZIE
Are we now deep in the abyss? Up to our necks in it, if the oil price is any guide. Brent has now tested sub-US$20/bbl in this downturn and WTI sub ...
Monday, 27 April 20
INCIDENT INVESTIGATION: SEARCH FOR THE CAUSE, NOT THE VILLAIN - GARD
Incident investigations often conclude with placing the blame for an incident on the crew. Causes of the incidents are usually identified as proced ...
Monday, 27 April 20
A 58,000DWT VESSEL WAS FIXED DELIVERY SINGAPORE TRIP VIA INDONESIA, RE-DELIVERY WC INDIA, AT $4,500 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The tide turned this week for the Capesize market, as voyage rates registered dramatically falling fuel costs. This was led primarily ...
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- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Australian Coal Association
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- PTC India Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Economic Council, Georgia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Planning Commission, India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
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