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Thursday, 16 April 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 As everyone anticipated the results of the OPEC + G20 meeting last week, it was very interesting to watch the reaction of tanker rates that were in a bull run lately. Amidst an oversupplied oil market and expectations of production cuts and consequent oil price hikes, the large contango effect has made profitable several storage plays during the past couple of months, occupying a lot of ships as a result, while in addition to that, several countries decided (amid bottoming oil prices and the Coronavirus pandemic emergency) to increase to the maximum their strategic petroleum reserves (e.g. the US SPR already has 634 million barrels in storage vs. a total capacity of 713 million barrels).
Key stakeholders in the industry created an additional hype by characterizing this meeting as one of the most important and historic events in the last two decades, creating expectations that any deal would lead to a further spike in short-term activity. There were of course also some less optimistic voices in the industry insisting that deal or no-deal the tanker market remained fundamentally weak in the long term, with the pandemic restrictive measures around the world already leading to a 25-35 million b/d or 30% decrease in demand. Following the end of the meeting, OPEC+ announced output cuts of 9.7m b/d for May and June, 8m b/d for the remainder of 2020 and 6 million b/d for the period January 2021-April 2022. The record cuts we are about to witness in the next couple of months are almost equal to 10% of global supply, while together with non-OPEC+ member cuts the figure could even reach the equivalent of 1/5 of global supply.
This means that May onwards cargo loadings will definitely see significant declines and this will most likely have a negative impact on the tanker freight market. Because of this expectation, we could possibly see producing countries trying to pump out as much product as possible before the agreement enters into effect, which could offer some support to the tanker market before we reach May 1st.
Looking further ahead and as “expecting the unexpected” is something everyone must have gotten used to by now, I’d say that there are a few possible scenarios in which neither the oil market dries up, nor prices manage to stabilize at much higher levels and push freights down. We have seen many times during previous output cuts that there have been some non-compliant members and we won’t be surprised to see certain producing countries eventually ramping up production above what was agreed this time as well.
Not only would such a development restore part of the cargoes lost, but it would also cause great dissatisfaction to compliant members that would start losing market share due to non-compliance and this could eventually lead to a new price war as a result. In addition to that, global demand for oil will gradually begin to increase as countries around the world eventually start to exit the pandemic emergency state and return to normality, while let’s not forget the amount of tonnage that has been used for storage and will not be competing for business in the tanker market.
By Ilias M. Lalaounis
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 01 May 20
GLOBAL COAL DEMAND TO FALL BY 8% IN Q1 2020 RELATIVE TO Q1 2019 - IEA
We expect global coal demand to fall by 8% in Q1 2020 relative to Q1 2019. This significant drop was driven by lower demand in the electricity sect ...
Friday, 01 May 20
LUKOIL SHARES LUBRICANT EXPERIENCE AFTER FIRST 100 DAYS OF OPERATION ON VLSFO
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
After 100 days of VLSFO operation, LUKOIL Marine Lubricants is sharing recent experience on VLSFO operation with NAVIGO M ...
Wednesday, 29 April 20
OIL CLOSES IN ON PEAK OVERSUPPLY - WOOD MACKENZIE
Are we now deep in the abyss? Up to our necks in it, if the oil price is any guide. Brent has now tested sub-US$20/bbl in this downturn and WTI sub ...
Monday, 27 April 20
INCIDENT INVESTIGATION: SEARCH FOR THE CAUSE, NOT THE VILLAIN - GARD
Incident investigations often conclude with placing the blame for an incident on the crew. Causes of the incidents are usually identified as proced ...
Monday, 27 April 20
A 58,000DWT VESSEL WAS FIXED DELIVERY SINGAPORE TRIP VIA INDONESIA, RE-DELIVERY WC INDIA, AT $4,500 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The tide turned this week for the Capesize market, as voyage rates registered dramatically falling fuel costs. This was led primarily ...
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- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- The University of Queensland
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Planning Commission, India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
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