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Thursday, 16 April 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 As everyone anticipated the results of the OPEC + G20 meeting last week, it was very interesting to watch the reaction of tanker rates that were in a bull run lately. Amidst an oversupplied oil market and expectations of production cuts and consequent oil price hikes, the large contango effect has made profitable several storage plays during the past couple of months, occupying a lot of ships as a result, while in addition to that, several countries decided (amid bottoming oil prices and the Coronavirus pandemic emergency) to increase to the maximum their strategic petroleum reserves (e.g. the US SPR already has 634 million barrels in storage vs. a total capacity of 713 million barrels).
Key stakeholders in the industry created an additional hype by characterizing this meeting as one of the most important and historic events in the last two decades, creating expectations that any deal would lead to a further spike in short-term activity. There were of course also some less optimistic voices in the industry insisting that deal or no-deal the tanker market remained fundamentally weak in the long term, with the pandemic restrictive measures around the world already leading to a 25-35 million b/d or 30% decrease in demand. Following the end of the meeting, OPEC+ announced output cuts of 9.7m b/d for May and June, 8m b/d for the remainder of 2020 and 6 million b/d for the period January 2021-April 2022. The record cuts we are about to witness in the next couple of months are almost equal to 10% of global supply, while together with non-OPEC+ member cuts the figure could even reach the equivalent of 1/5 of global supply.
This means that May onwards cargo loadings will definitely see significant declines and this will most likely have a negative impact on the tanker freight market. Because of this expectation, we could possibly see producing countries trying to pump out as much product as possible before the agreement enters into effect, which could offer some support to the tanker market before we reach May 1st.
Looking further ahead and as “expecting the unexpected” is something everyone must have gotten used to by now, I’d say that there are a few possible scenarios in which neither the oil market dries up, nor prices manage to stabilize at much higher levels and push freights down. We have seen many times during previous output cuts that there have been some non-compliant members and we won’t be surprised to see certain producing countries eventually ramping up production above what was agreed this time as well.
Not only would such a development restore part of the cargoes lost, but it would also cause great dissatisfaction to compliant members that would start losing market share due to non-compliance and this could eventually lead to a new price war as a result. In addition to that, global demand for oil will gradually begin to increase as countries around the world eventually start to exit the pandemic emergency state and return to normality, while let’s not forget the amount of tonnage that has been used for storage and will not be competing for business in the tanker market.
By Ilias M. Lalaounis
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 05 May 20
SUPRAMAXES: YTD SLIDE HAS BEEN 45%, WITH THE AVERAGE FOR 2020 TCA HOLDING AT US$5,793 - ALLIED
It has been almost three months since the WHO officially categorized the current coronavirus outbreak as a global pandemic, an outbreak that has br ...
Monday, 04 May 20
U.S. ESTIMATED COAL PRODUCTION FALL 39.4% YEAR ON YEAR IN THE WEEK ENDED APRIL 25 - EIA
Estimated U.S. coal production totaled about 8.6 million short tons (MMst) For the week ended April 25, 2020, says EIA in its latest report.
E ...
Saturday, 02 May 20
SUPRAMAX: ASIA, STRONGER NUMBERS - A 55.000-DWT WAS FIXED FROM INDONESIA TO CHINA IN THE MID $6,000S - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
A tepid week for the big ships, as macro concerns continued to weigh heavily on the index. All of the major voyage routes lost value, ...
Friday, 01 May 20
KOSPO INVITED OFFER FOR 5600 NCV COAL FOR Q3 2020 LOADING
COALspot.com: Korea Southern Power Co., Ltd. (KOSPO) has issued an International tender for 260,000 Metric Tons (MT) steam coal for Boryeong Power ...
Friday, 01 May 20
GLOBAL COAL DEMAND TO FALL BY ABOUT 8% IN 2020,THE LARGEST DROP SINCE WORLD WAR II - IEA
We expect global coal demand to fall by about 8% in 2020, the largest drop since World War II, with coal use declining in virtually every sector of ...
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- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- The University of Queensland
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Australian Coal Association
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
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