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Thursday, 16 April 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 As everyone anticipated the results of the OPEC + G20 meeting last week, it was very interesting to watch the reaction of tanker rates that were in a bull run lately. Amidst an oversupplied oil market and expectations of production cuts and consequent oil price hikes, the large contango effect has made profitable several storage plays during the past couple of months, occupying a lot of ships as a result, while in addition to that, several countries decided (amid bottoming oil prices and the Coronavirus pandemic emergency) to increase to the maximum their strategic petroleum reserves (e.g. the US SPR already has 634 million barrels in storage vs. a total capacity of 713 million barrels).
Key stakeholders in the industry created an additional hype by characterizing this meeting as one of the most important and historic events in the last two decades, creating expectations that any deal would lead to a further spike in short-term activity. There were of course also some less optimistic voices in the industry insisting that deal or no-deal the tanker market remained fundamentally weak in the long term, with the pandemic restrictive measures around the world already leading to a 25-35 million b/d or 30% decrease in demand. Following the end of the meeting, OPEC+ announced output cuts of 9.7m b/d for May and June, 8m b/d for the remainder of 2020 and 6 million b/d for the period January 2021-April 2022. The record cuts we are about to witness in the next couple of months are almost equal to 10% of global supply, while together with non-OPEC+ member cuts the figure could even reach the equivalent of 1/5 of global supply.
This means that May onwards cargo loadings will definitely see significant declines and this will most likely have a negative impact on the tanker freight market. Because of this expectation, we could possibly see producing countries trying to pump out as much product as possible before the agreement enters into effect, which could offer some support to the tanker market before we reach May 1st.
Looking further ahead and as “expecting the unexpected” is something everyone must have gotten used to by now, I’d say that there are a few possible scenarios in which neither the oil market dries up, nor prices manage to stabilize at much higher levels and push freights down. We have seen many times during previous output cuts that there have been some non-compliant members and we won’t be surprised to see certain producing countries eventually ramping up production above what was agreed this time as well.
Not only would such a development restore part of the cargoes lost, but it would also cause great dissatisfaction to compliant members that would start losing market share due to non-compliance and this could eventually lead to a new price war as a result. In addition to that, global demand for oil will gradually begin to increase as countries around the world eventually start to exit the pandemic emergency state and return to normality, while let’s not forget the amount of tonnage that has been used for storage and will not be competing for business in the tanker market.
By Ilias M. Lalaounis
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 05 May 20
SUPRAMAXES: YTD SLIDE HAS BEEN 45%, WITH THE AVERAGE FOR 2020 TCA HOLDING AT US$5,793 - ALLIED
It has been almost three months since the WHO officially categorized the current coronavirus outbreak as a global pandemic, an outbreak that has br ...
Monday, 04 May 20
U.S. ESTIMATED COAL PRODUCTION FALL 39.4% YEAR ON YEAR IN THE WEEK ENDED APRIL 25 - EIA
Estimated U.S. coal production totaled about 8.6 million short tons (MMst) For the week ended April 25, 2020, says EIA in its latest report.
E ...
Saturday, 02 May 20
SUPRAMAX: ASIA, STRONGER NUMBERS - A 55.000-DWT WAS FIXED FROM INDONESIA TO CHINA IN THE MID $6,000S - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
A tepid week for the big ships, as macro concerns continued to weigh heavily on the index. All of the major voyage routes lost value, ...
Friday, 01 May 20
KOSPO INVITED OFFER FOR 5600 NCV COAL FOR Q3 2020 LOADING
COALspot.com: Korea Southern Power Co., Ltd. (KOSPO) has issued an International tender for 260,000 Metric Tons (MT) steam coal for Boryeong Power ...
Friday, 01 May 20
GLOBAL COAL DEMAND TO FALL BY ABOUT 8% IN 2020,THE LARGEST DROP SINCE WORLD WAR II - IEA
We expect global coal demand to fall by about 8% in 2020, the largest drop since World War II, with coal use declining in virtually every sector of ...
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- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
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