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Thursday, 16 April 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 As everyone anticipated the results of the OPEC + G20 meeting last week, it was very interesting to watch the reaction of tanker rates that were in a bull run lately. Amidst an oversupplied oil market and expectations of production cuts and consequent oil price hikes, the large contango effect has made profitable several storage plays during the past couple of months, occupying a lot of ships as a result, while in addition to that, several countries decided (amid bottoming oil prices and the Coronavirus pandemic emergency) to increase to the maximum their strategic petroleum reserves (e.g. the US SPR already has 634 million barrels in storage vs. a total capacity of 713 million barrels).
Key stakeholders in the industry created an additional hype by characterizing this meeting as one of the most important and historic events in the last two decades, creating expectations that any deal would lead to a further spike in short-term activity. There were of course also some less optimistic voices in the industry insisting that deal or no-deal the tanker market remained fundamentally weak in the long term, with the pandemic restrictive measures around the world already leading to a 25-35 million b/d or 30% decrease in demand. Following the end of the meeting, OPEC+ announced output cuts of 9.7m b/d for May and June, 8m b/d for the remainder of 2020 and 6 million b/d for the period January 2021-April 2022. The record cuts we are about to witness in the next couple of months are almost equal to 10% of global supply, while together with non-OPEC+ member cuts the figure could even reach the equivalent of 1/5 of global supply.
This means that May onwards cargo loadings will definitely see significant declines and this will most likely have a negative impact on the tanker freight market. Because of this expectation, we could possibly see producing countries trying to pump out as much product as possible before the agreement enters into effect, which could offer some support to the tanker market before we reach May 1st.
Looking further ahead and as “expecting the unexpected” is something everyone must have gotten used to by now, I’d say that there are a few possible scenarios in which neither the oil market dries up, nor prices manage to stabilize at much higher levels and push freights down. We have seen many times during previous output cuts that there have been some non-compliant members and we won’t be surprised to see certain producing countries eventually ramping up production above what was agreed this time as well.
Not only would such a development restore part of the cargoes lost, but it would also cause great dissatisfaction to compliant members that would start losing market share due to non-compliance and this could eventually lead to a new price war as a result. In addition to that, global demand for oil will gradually begin to increase as countries around the world eventually start to exit the pandemic emergency state and return to normality, while let’s not forget the amount of tonnage that has been used for storage and will not be competing for business in the tanker market.
By Ilias M. Lalaounis
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 05 May 20
SUPRAMAXES: YTD SLIDE HAS BEEN 45%, WITH THE AVERAGE FOR 2020 TCA HOLDING AT US$5,793 - ALLIED
It has been almost three months since the WHO officially categorized the current coronavirus outbreak as a global pandemic, an outbreak that has br ...
Monday, 04 May 20
U.S. ESTIMATED COAL PRODUCTION FALL 39.4% YEAR ON YEAR IN THE WEEK ENDED APRIL 25 - EIA
Estimated U.S. coal production totaled about 8.6 million short tons (MMst) For the week ended April 25, 2020, says EIA in its latest report.
E ...
Saturday, 02 May 20
SUPRAMAX: ASIA, STRONGER NUMBERS - A 55.000-DWT WAS FIXED FROM INDONESIA TO CHINA IN THE MID $6,000S - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
A tepid week for the big ships, as macro concerns continued to weigh heavily on the index. All of the major voyage routes lost value, ...
Friday, 01 May 20
KOSPO INVITED OFFER FOR 5600 NCV COAL FOR Q3 2020 LOADING
COALspot.com: Korea Southern Power Co., Ltd. (KOSPO) has issued an International tender for 260,000 Metric Tons (MT) steam coal for Boryeong Power ...
Friday, 01 May 20
GLOBAL COAL DEMAND TO FALL BY ABOUT 8% IN 2020,THE LARGEST DROP SINCE WORLD WAR II - IEA
We expect global coal demand to fall by about 8% in 2020, the largest drop since World War II, with coal use declining in virtually every sector of ...
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- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
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- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Australian Coal Association
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
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