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Thursday, 16 April 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 As everyone anticipated the results of the OPEC + G20 meeting last week, it was very interesting to watch the reaction of tanker rates that were in a bull run lately. Amidst an oversupplied oil market and expectations of production cuts and consequent oil price hikes, the large contango effect has made profitable several storage plays during the past couple of months, occupying a lot of ships as a result, while in addition to that, several countries decided (amid bottoming oil prices and the Coronavirus pandemic emergency) to increase to the maximum their strategic petroleum reserves (e.g. the US SPR already has 634 million barrels in storage vs. a total capacity of 713 million barrels).
Key stakeholders in the industry created an additional hype by characterizing this meeting as one of the most important and historic events in the last two decades, creating expectations that any deal would lead to a further spike in short-term activity. There were of course also some less optimistic voices in the industry insisting that deal or no-deal the tanker market remained fundamentally weak in the long term, with the pandemic restrictive measures around the world already leading to a 25-35 million b/d or 30% decrease in demand. Following the end of the meeting, OPEC+ announced output cuts of 9.7m b/d for May and June, 8m b/d for the remainder of 2020 and 6 million b/d for the period January 2021-April 2022. The record cuts we are about to witness in the next couple of months are almost equal to 10% of global supply, while together with non-OPEC+ member cuts the figure could even reach the equivalent of 1/5 of global supply.
This means that May onwards cargo loadings will definitely see significant declines and this will most likely have a negative impact on the tanker freight market. Because of this expectation, we could possibly see producing countries trying to pump out as much product as possible before the agreement enters into effect, which could offer some support to the tanker market before we reach May 1st.
Looking further ahead and as “expecting the unexpected” is something everyone must have gotten used to by now, I’d say that there are a few possible scenarios in which neither the oil market dries up, nor prices manage to stabilize at much higher levels and push freights down. We have seen many times during previous output cuts that there have been some non-compliant members and we won’t be surprised to see certain producing countries eventually ramping up production above what was agreed this time as well.
Not only would such a development restore part of the cargoes lost, but it would also cause great dissatisfaction to compliant members that would start losing market share due to non-compliance and this could eventually lead to a new price war as a result. In addition to that, global demand for oil will gradually begin to increase as countries around the world eventually start to exit the pandemic emergency state and return to normality, while let’s not forget the amount of tonnage that has been used for storage and will not be competing for business in the tanker market.
By Ilias M. Lalaounis
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 07 May 20
CRUDE OIL TANKER EARNINGS DROP 68% IN NINE DAYS - BIMCO
Crude oil tanker earnings have come down sharply in recent weeks with Very Large Crude Carrier (VLCC) earnings from the Middle East Gulf to China d ...
Thursday, 07 May 20
UKRAINE PRODUCES 2.5 MLN TONNES OF COAL IN APRIL - UKRINFORM
Ukraine produced 2.5 million tonnes of coal in April 2020, which is 39% less than planned, according to the Coal Miners Union of Ukraine.
...
Thursday, 07 May 20
INDIA: GOVT TO DO AWAY WITH MANDATORY WASHING OF COAL FOR THERMAL POWER UNITS - BUSINESS STANDARD
The Centre is planning to do away with the mandatory requirement of washing of coal before it is transported to thermal power stations. The Ministr ...
Thursday, 07 May 20
CIL'S SUPPLY TO POWER SECTOR FALLS IN MARCH AMID SLUMP IN COAL DEMAND - PTI
The supply of coal to the power sector by state-owned CIL registered a decline of eight per cent to 42.30 million tonne in March in the wake of slu ...
Thursday, 07 May 20
COAL PRICE REFERENCE FALL SHARPLY IN MAY 2020 DUE TO CORONAVIRUS OUTBREAK
COALspot.com: The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources of the Republic of Indonesia has revised down the benchmark price of Indonesian thermal ...
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- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Australian Coal Association
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- The University of Queensland
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
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