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Thursday, 16 April 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 As everyone anticipated the results of the OPEC + G20 meeting last week, it was very interesting to watch the reaction of tanker rates that were in a bull run lately. Amidst an oversupplied oil market and expectations of production cuts and consequent oil price hikes, the large contango effect has made profitable several storage plays during the past couple of months, occupying a lot of ships as a result, while in addition to that, several countries decided (amid bottoming oil prices and the Coronavirus pandemic emergency) to increase to the maximum their strategic petroleum reserves (e.g. the US SPR already has 634 million barrels in storage vs. a total capacity of 713 million barrels).
Key stakeholders in the industry created an additional hype by characterizing this meeting as one of the most important and historic events in the last two decades, creating expectations that any deal would lead to a further spike in short-term activity. There were of course also some less optimistic voices in the industry insisting that deal or no-deal the tanker market remained fundamentally weak in the long term, with the pandemic restrictive measures around the world already leading to a 25-35 million b/d or 30% decrease in demand. Following the end of the meeting, OPEC+ announced output cuts of 9.7m b/d for May and June, 8m b/d for the remainder of 2020 and 6 million b/d for the period January 2021-April 2022. The record cuts we are about to witness in the next couple of months are almost equal to 10% of global supply, while together with non-OPEC+ member cuts the figure could even reach the equivalent of 1/5 of global supply.
This means that May onwards cargo loadings will definitely see significant declines and this will most likely have a negative impact on the tanker freight market. Because of this expectation, we could possibly see producing countries trying to pump out as much product as possible before the agreement enters into effect, which could offer some support to the tanker market before we reach May 1st.
Looking further ahead and as “expecting the unexpected” is something everyone must have gotten used to by now, I’d say that there are a few possible scenarios in which neither the oil market dries up, nor prices manage to stabilize at much higher levels and push freights down. We have seen many times during previous output cuts that there have been some non-compliant members and we won’t be surprised to see certain producing countries eventually ramping up production above what was agreed this time as well.
Not only would such a development restore part of the cargoes lost, but it would also cause great dissatisfaction to compliant members that would start losing market share due to non-compliance and this could eventually lead to a new price war as a result. In addition to that, global demand for oil will gradually begin to increase as countries around the world eventually start to exit the pandemic emergency state and return to normality, while let’s not forget the amount of tonnage that has been used for storage and will not be competing for business in the tanker market.
By Ilias M. Lalaounis
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 12 May 20
A GLOBAL ECONOMIC RESTART HAS SLOWLY BEGUN AS COUNTRIES AROUND THE WORLD GRADUALLY - ALLIED
A global economic restart has slowly begun as countries around the world gradually set their return back to “normality”. Yet by all mea ...
Tuesday, 12 May 20
CAN INDONESIA'S COAL INDUSTRY SURVIVE COVID-19? : IEEFA
Pandemic Lockdown and Slumping Prices Put Extreme Pressure on Coal Miners
Executive Summary
While attention has been focused on th ...
Tuesday, 12 May 20
INDIA'S COAL PRODUCTION TO CLOCK RECORD 700 MILLION TONNES IN FY21: COAL SECRETARY - PTI
Coal Secretary Anil Jain said FY20 coal production was lower than the target of 660 million tonnes because of flooding of a key coal mine.
&nbs ...
Monday, 11 May 20
CHINA'S BENCHMARK POWER COAL PRICE DROPS SLIGHTLY - XINHUA
China’s benchmark power coal price dropped slightly during the past week.
The Bohai-Rim Steam-Coal Price Index (BSPI), a gauge ...
Monday, 11 May 20
CORONAVIRUS PUTS MORE THAN A THIRD OF SEABORNE COAL SUPPLY AT RISK - WOOD MACKENZIE
The full impact of the coronavirus outbreak on the global economy is yet unclear. However, the demand destruction is already becoming evident, with ...
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- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
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- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
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- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- The University of Queensland
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- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
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- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
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- Australian Coal Association
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- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Economic Council, Georgia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
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- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
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