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Thursday, 16 April 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 As everyone anticipated the results of the OPEC + G20 meeting last week, it was very interesting to watch the reaction of tanker rates that were in a bull run lately. Amidst an oversupplied oil market and expectations of production cuts and consequent oil price hikes, the large contango effect has made profitable several storage plays during the past couple of months, occupying a lot of ships as a result, while in addition to that, several countries decided (amid bottoming oil prices and the Coronavirus pandemic emergency) to increase to the maximum their strategic petroleum reserves (e.g. the US SPR already has 634 million barrels in storage vs. a total capacity of 713 million barrels).
Key stakeholders in the industry created an additional hype by characterizing this meeting as one of the most important and historic events in the last two decades, creating expectations that any deal would lead to a further spike in short-term activity. There were of course also some less optimistic voices in the industry insisting that deal or no-deal the tanker market remained fundamentally weak in the long term, with the pandemic restrictive measures around the world already leading to a 25-35 million b/d or 30% decrease in demand. Following the end of the meeting, OPEC+ announced output cuts of 9.7m b/d for May and June, 8m b/d for the remainder of 2020 and 6 million b/d for the period January 2021-April 2022. The record cuts we are about to witness in the next couple of months are almost equal to 10% of global supply, while together with non-OPEC+ member cuts the figure could even reach the equivalent of 1/5 of global supply.
This means that May onwards cargo loadings will definitely see significant declines and this will most likely have a negative impact on the tanker freight market. Because of this expectation, we could possibly see producing countries trying to pump out as much product as possible before the agreement enters into effect, which could offer some support to the tanker market before we reach May 1st.
Looking further ahead and as “expecting the unexpected” is something everyone must have gotten used to by now, I’d say that there are a few possible scenarios in which neither the oil market dries up, nor prices manage to stabilize at much higher levels and push freights down. We have seen many times during previous output cuts that there have been some non-compliant members and we won’t be surprised to see certain producing countries eventually ramping up production above what was agreed this time as well.
Not only would such a development restore part of the cargoes lost, but it would also cause great dissatisfaction to compliant members that would start losing market share due to non-compliance and this could eventually lead to a new price war as a result. In addition to that, global demand for oil will gradually begin to increase as countries around the world eventually start to exit the pandemic emergency state and return to normality, while let’s not forget the amount of tonnage that has been used for storage and will not be competing for business in the tanker market.
By Ilias M. Lalaounis
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 18 May 20
TAKING ADVANTAGE OF VIRUS DISTRACTION - BALTIC EXCHANGE
As the industry grapples to deal with exceptional Covid-19-related challenges, a deeper threat is coming to the fore. At this time of crisis, more ...
Monday, 18 May 20
THERMAL COAL SPOT PRICE TUMBLES 25 PER CENT, PUTTING PRESSURE ON SOME PRODUCERS - ABC RURAL
The spot price for thermal coal has fallen 25 per cent per cent in the past month with one leading analyst saying it is because of a reduction in d ...
Monday, 18 May 20
CHINA'S COAL OUTPUT UP 1.3 PCT IN JANUARY-APRIL: XINHUA
Output of raw coal in China rose 1.3 percent year on year to 1.15 billion tonnes in the first four months this year, official data showed.
&nbs ...
Sunday, 17 May 20
A 55,000 OPEN ILIGAN FIXING AT $6,500 VIA INDONESIA REDELIVERY INDIA - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
A precipitous fall in the market this week had the Capesize 5TC shedding over 50 per cent in value. A small rebound at the end of the ...
Friday, 15 May 20
CHINA'S COAL CONSUMPTION TO FALL Y/Y IN SECOND QUARTER, IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED IN SECOND HALF - INDUSTRY BODY: REUTERS
China’s coal consumption is expected to decline in the second quarter from a year earlier, but will see an improvement in the second half of ...
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- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- White Energy Company Limited
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Australian Coal Association
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- The University of Queensland
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
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