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Thursday, 16 April 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 As everyone anticipated the results of the OPEC + G20 meeting last week, it was very interesting to watch the reaction of tanker rates that were in a bull run lately. Amidst an oversupplied oil market and expectations of production cuts and consequent oil price hikes, the large contango effect has made profitable several storage plays during the past couple of months, occupying a lot of ships as a result, while in addition to that, several countries decided (amid bottoming oil prices and the Coronavirus pandemic emergency) to increase to the maximum their strategic petroleum reserves (e.g. the US SPR already has 634 million barrels in storage vs. a total capacity of 713 million barrels).
Key stakeholders in the industry created an additional hype by characterizing this meeting as one of the most important and historic events in the last two decades, creating expectations that any deal would lead to a further spike in short-term activity. There were of course also some less optimistic voices in the industry insisting that deal or no-deal the tanker market remained fundamentally weak in the long term, with the pandemic restrictive measures around the world already leading to a 25-35 million b/d or 30% decrease in demand. Following the end of the meeting, OPEC+ announced output cuts of 9.7m b/d for May and June, 8m b/d for the remainder of 2020 and 6 million b/d for the period January 2021-April 2022. The record cuts we are about to witness in the next couple of months are almost equal to 10% of global supply, while together with non-OPEC+ member cuts the figure could even reach the equivalent of 1/5 of global supply.
This means that May onwards cargo loadings will definitely see significant declines and this will most likely have a negative impact on the tanker freight market. Because of this expectation, we could possibly see producing countries trying to pump out as much product as possible before the agreement enters into effect, which could offer some support to the tanker market before we reach May 1st.
Looking further ahead and as “expecting the unexpected” is something everyone must have gotten used to by now, I’d say that there are a few possible scenarios in which neither the oil market dries up, nor prices manage to stabilize at much higher levels and push freights down. We have seen many times during previous output cuts that there have been some non-compliant members and we won’t be surprised to see certain producing countries eventually ramping up production above what was agreed this time as well.
Not only would such a development restore part of the cargoes lost, but it would also cause great dissatisfaction to compliant members that would start losing market share due to non-compliance and this could eventually lead to a new price war as a result. In addition to that, global demand for oil will gradually begin to increase as countries around the world eventually start to exit the pandemic emergency state and return to normality, while let’s not forget the amount of tonnage that has been used for storage and will not be competing for business in the tanker market.
By Ilias M. Lalaounis
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 14 May 20
OPEC REVISES DOWN GLOBAL OIL DEMAND FORECAST AGAIN
Crude Oil Price Movements
Crude oil prices recorded a second sharp monthly drop in April, amid an increasing oil surplus in the spot market. Th ...
Thursday, 14 May 20
NEW COVID-19 GUIDELINES FOCUS ON SAFE INTERFACE BETWEEN SHIP AND SHORE STAFF - GARD
At a time when the COVID-19 pandemic is affecting the global population, it is important that ships’ crew and port workers protect each other ...
Wednesday, 13 May 20
CHINA TAIYUAN COAL TRANSACTION PRICE INDEX DOWN 0.4 PCT - XINHUA
China Taiyuan coal transaction price index stood at 124.93 points Monday, down 0.4 percent week on week.
The index, released by Chin ...
Tuesday, 12 May 20
IN THE FIRST 4 MONTHS OF 2020, SOUTH KOREA IMPORTED 46.6 MLN TONNES OF CRUDE OIL BY SEA, A NET DECLINE OF 14.1% YOY - BC
South Korea is certainly one of the countries which has handled better the current Covid-19 crisis. In the first week of May 2020, new cases of ...
Tuesday, 12 May 20
OIL MARKET TURBULENCE PIVOTS FOCUS ON FLOATING STORAGE TECHNICAL NEEDS - LLOYD'S REGISTER
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Negative oil prices and off-the-scale volatility in crude markets are positive for floating storage, as the next chapter ...
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- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
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- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
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- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- The Treasury - Australian Government
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- Central Electricity Authority - India
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- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
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- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
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- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Planning Commission, India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- White Energy Company Limited
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
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