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Thursday, 16 April 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 As everyone anticipated the results of the OPEC + G20 meeting last week, it was very interesting to watch the reaction of tanker rates that were in a bull run lately. Amidst an oversupplied oil market and expectations of production cuts and consequent oil price hikes, the large contango effect has made profitable several storage plays during the past couple of months, occupying a lot of ships as a result, while in addition to that, several countries decided (amid bottoming oil prices and the Coronavirus pandemic emergency) to increase to the maximum their strategic petroleum reserves (e.g. the US SPR already has 634 million barrels in storage vs. a total capacity of 713 million barrels).
Key stakeholders in the industry created an additional hype by characterizing this meeting as one of the most important and historic events in the last two decades, creating expectations that any deal would lead to a further spike in short-term activity. There were of course also some less optimistic voices in the industry insisting that deal or no-deal the tanker market remained fundamentally weak in the long term, with the pandemic restrictive measures around the world already leading to a 25-35 million b/d or 30% decrease in demand. Following the end of the meeting, OPEC+ announced output cuts of 9.7m b/d for May and June, 8m b/d for the remainder of 2020 and 6 million b/d for the period January 2021-April 2022. The record cuts we are about to witness in the next couple of months are almost equal to 10% of global supply, while together with non-OPEC+ member cuts the figure could even reach the equivalent of 1/5 of global supply.
This means that May onwards cargo loadings will definitely see significant declines and this will most likely have a negative impact on the tanker freight market. Because of this expectation, we could possibly see producing countries trying to pump out as much product as possible before the agreement enters into effect, which could offer some support to the tanker market before we reach May 1st.
Looking further ahead and as “expecting the unexpected” is something everyone must have gotten used to by now, I’d say that there are a few possible scenarios in which neither the oil market dries up, nor prices manage to stabilize at much higher levels and push freights down. We have seen many times during previous output cuts that there have been some non-compliant members and we won’t be surprised to see certain producing countries eventually ramping up production above what was agreed this time as well.
Not only would such a development restore part of the cargoes lost, but it would also cause great dissatisfaction to compliant members that would start losing market share due to non-compliance and this could eventually lead to a new price war as a result. In addition to that, global demand for oil will gradually begin to increase as countries around the world eventually start to exit the pandemic emergency state and return to normality, while let’s not forget the amount of tonnage that has been used for storage and will not be competing for business in the tanker market.
By Ilias M. Lalaounis
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 21 May 20
KOMIPO INVITED BIDS FOR TOTAL 610000 MT OF LCV AND HCV COAL FOR 2H 2020
COALspot.com: South Korea’s Korea Midland Power Co. Ltd. (KOMIPO) has Issued an International Tender for 130,000 mt of 5700 NCV coal an ...
Wednesday, 20 May 20
ADARO ENERGY BOOKED A 5% INCREASE IN COAL PRODUCTION VOLUME Y-O-Y IN 1Q2020
PT. Adaro Energy Tbk, Indonesia’s one of the largest coal miner, booked a 5% increase in coal production volume year-over-year in 1Q2020. The ...
Wednesday, 20 May 20
BRAZIL SOYBEAN EXPORTS HAVE BEEN SURGING THIS YEAR - BANCHERO COSTA
Brazil soybean exports have been surging this year, thanks to a combination of strong demand from China, a bumper crop, and favourable exchange rat ...
Wednesday, 20 May 20
MARKET INSIGHT
Seafarers keep maritime trade going so that the food, raw materials, energy and manufactured goods on which so many depend can continue moving arou ...
Tuesday, 19 May 20
AMENDMENT OF THE INDONESIAN MINING LAW: TYING UP LOOSE ENDS - UMBRA
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
The finalized draft of Law on the amendment of the Mining Law (Bill) was publicly released on 11 May 2020 and was then ap ...
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- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- White Energy Company Limited
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Planning Commission, India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
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