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Thursday, 16 April 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 As everyone anticipated the results of the OPEC + G20 meeting last week, it was very interesting to watch the reaction of tanker rates that were in a bull run lately. Amidst an oversupplied oil market and expectations of production cuts and consequent oil price hikes, the large contango effect has made profitable several storage plays during the past couple of months, occupying a lot of ships as a result, while in addition to that, several countries decided (amid bottoming oil prices and the Coronavirus pandemic emergency) to increase to the maximum their strategic petroleum reserves (e.g. the US SPR already has 634 million barrels in storage vs. a total capacity of 713 million barrels).
Key stakeholders in the industry created an additional hype by characterizing this meeting as one of the most important and historic events in the last two decades, creating expectations that any deal would lead to a further spike in short-term activity. There were of course also some less optimistic voices in the industry insisting that deal or no-deal the tanker market remained fundamentally weak in the long term, with the pandemic restrictive measures around the world already leading to a 25-35 million b/d or 30% decrease in demand. Following the end of the meeting, OPEC+ announced output cuts of 9.7m b/d for May and June, 8m b/d for the remainder of 2020 and 6 million b/d for the period January 2021-April 2022. The record cuts we are about to witness in the next couple of months are almost equal to 10% of global supply, while together with non-OPEC+ member cuts the figure could even reach the equivalent of 1/5 of global supply.
This means that May onwards cargo loadings will definitely see significant declines and this will most likely have a negative impact on the tanker freight market. Because of this expectation, we could possibly see producing countries trying to pump out as much product as possible before the agreement enters into effect, which could offer some support to the tanker market before we reach May 1st.
Looking further ahead and as “expecting the unexpected” is something everyone must have gotten used to by now, I’d say that there are a few possible scenarios in which neither the oil market dries up, nor prices manage to stabilize at much higher levels and push freights down. We have seen many times during previous output cuts that there have been some non-compliant members and we won’t be surprised to see certain producing countries eventually ramping up production above what was agreed this time as well.
Not only would such a development restore part of the cargoes lost, but it would also cause great dissatisfaction to compliant members that would start losing market share due to non-compliance and this could eventually lead to a new price war as a result. In addition to that, global demand for oil will gradually begin to increase as countries around the world eventually start to exit the pandemic emergency state and return to normality, while let’s not forget the amount of tonnage that has been used for storage and will not be competing for business in the tanker market.
By Ilias M. Lalaounis
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 27 May 20
CHINA TAIYUAN COAL TRANSACTION PRICE INDEX UP 0.94 PCT - XINHUA
China Taiyuan coal transaction price index stood at 125.03 points Monday, up 0.94 percent week on week.
The index, released by China ...
Monday, 25 May 20
NON-OPEC OIL SUPPLY DEVELOPMENT - OPEC
Non-OPEC oil supply continued to increase by 2.0 mb/d in 2019, driven by US shale production, which rose by 1.7 mb/d, amounting to 84% of total non ...
Sunday, 24 May 20
A 63,000 FIXED DELIVERY VIETNAM TRIP VIA INDONESIA REDELIVERY KOSICHANG AT $8,500 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
After a week of bounce momentum the market appears to have stalled out once again. The Capesize 5TC has more than doubled since last F ...
Saturday, 23 May 20
COLOMBIA COAL OUTPUT DOWN 7.2% IN Q1 ON LOW PRICES, CORONAVIRUS LOCKDOWN - REUTERS
Coal production in Colombia, the world’s fifth-largest coal exporter, fell 7.2% in the first quarter because of low prices and coronavirus qu ...
Saturday, 23 May 20
EWP INVITES BIDS FOR 840,000 METRIC TONS OF MIN 5700 NAR COAL
COALspot.com: South Korea’s Korea East-West Power Co. Ltd (EWP) has Issued an International Tender for total Max 840,000 Metric Tons of min 5 ...
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- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Australian Coal Association
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
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