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Thursday, 16 April 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 As everyone anticipated the results of the OPEC + G20 meeting last week, it was very interesting to watch the reaction of tanker rates that were in a bull run lately. Amidst an oversupplied oil market and expectations of production cuts and consequent oil price hikes, the large contango effect has made profitable several storage plays during the past couple of months, occupying a lot of ships as a result, while in addition to that, several countries decided (amid bottoming oil prices and the Coronavirus pandemic emergency) to increase to the maximum their strategic petroleum reserves (e.g. the US SPR already has 634 million barrels in storage vs. a total capacity of 713 million barrels).
Key stakeholders in the industry created an additional hype by characterizing this meeting as one of the most important and historic events in the last two decades, creating expectations that any deal would lead to a further spike in short-term activity. There were of course also some less optimistic voices in the industry insisting that deal or no-deal the tanker market remained fundamentally weak in the long term, with the pandemic restrictive measures around the world already leading to a 25-35 million b/d or 30% decrease in demand. Following the end of the meeting, OPEC+ announced output cuts of 9.7m b/d for May and June, 8m b/d for the remainder of 2020 and 6 million b/d for the period January 2021-April 2022. The record cuts we are about to witness in the next couple of months are almost equal to 10% of global supply, while together with non-OPEC+ member cuts the figure could even reach the equivalent of 1/5 of global supply.
This means that May onwards cargo loadings will definitely see significant declines and this will most likely have a negative impact on the tanker freight market. Because of this expectation, we could possibly see producing countries trying to pump out as much product as possible before the agreement enters into effect, which could offer some support to the tanker market before we reach May 1st.
Looking further ahead and as “expecting the unexpected” is something everyone must have gotten used to by now, I’d say that there are a few possible scenarios in which neither the oil market dries up, nor prices manage to stabilize at much higher levels and push freights down. We have seen many times during previous output cuts that there have been some non-compliant members and we won’t be surprised to see certain producing countries eventually ramping up production above what was agreed this time as well.
Not only would such a development restore part of the cargoes lost, but it would also cause great dissatisfaction to compliant members that would start losing market share due to non-compliance and this could eventually lead to a new price war as a result. In addition to that, global demand for oil will gradually begin to increase as countries around the world eventually start to exit the pandemic emergency state and return to normality, while let’s not forget the amount of tonnage that has been used for storage and will not be competing for business in the tanker market.
By Ilias M. Lalaounis
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 02 June 20
CHINA TAIYUAN COAL TRANSACTION PRICE INDEX DOWN 0.86 PCT - XINHUA
China Taiyuan coal transaction price index stood at 123.95 points Monday, down 0.86 percent week on week.
The index, released by Chi ...
Monday, 01 June 20
SUPRAMAX: IN SOUTH EAST ASIA RATES TRADED SIDEWAYS - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
A sober end to the week, with the market seemingly ready for the weekend. After a steady week of rate declines a small flurry of Atlan ...
Friday, 29 May 20
COVID-19: COAL SUPPLY BY CIL TO POWER SECTOR DIPS 22% TO 32 MT IN APRIL DUE TO DEMAND SLUMP - PTI
Over 95% of CIL’s production comes from its 171 open cast mines.
The supply of coal to the power sector by state-owned Coal In ...
Friday, 29 May 20
AUSTRALIA'S NEW HOPE WARNS OF HIT FROM COAL PRICE SLUMP - REUTERS
Australia’s New Hope Corp Ltd said on Thursday that a sudden drop in thermal coal prices and lower output from its Queensland operations woul ...
Friday, 29 May 20
GOVT MAY LAUNCH COAL BLOCKS AUCTION PROCESS UNDER COMMERCIAL MINING ON JUN 11 - PTI
The Centre is likely to launch the process of coal blocks auction under commercial mining on June 11 and around 50 mines are expected to go under t ...
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- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- PTC India Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- The University of Queensland
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
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