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Thursday, 16 April 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 As everyone anticipated the results of the OPEC + G20 meeting last week, it was very interesting to watch the reaction of tanker rates that were in a bull run lately. Amidst an oversupplied oil market and expectations of production cuts and consequent oil price hikes, the large contango effect has made profitable several storage plays during the past couple of months, occupying a lot of ships as a result, while in addition to that, several countries decided (amid bottoming oil prices and the Coronavirus pandemic emergency) to increase to the maximum their strategic petroleum reserves (e.g. the US SPR already has 634 million barrels in storage vs. a total capacity of 713 million barrels).
Key stakeholders in the industry created an additional hype by characterizing this meeting as one of the most important and historic events in the last two decades, creating expectations that any deal would lead to a further spike in short-term activity. There were of course also some less optimistic voices in the industry insisting that deal or no-deal the tanker market remained fundamentally weak in the long term, with the pandemic restrictive measures around the world already leading to a 25-35 million b/d or 30% decrease in demand. Following the end of the meeting, OPEC+ announced output cuts of 9.7m b/d for May and June, 8m b/d for the remainder of 2020 and 6 million b/d for the period January 2021-April 2022. The record cuts we are about to witness in the next couple of months are almost equal to 10% of global supply, while together with non-OPEC+ member cuts the figure could even reach the equivalent of 1/5 of global supply.
This means that May onwards cargo loadings will definitely see significant declines and this will most likely have a negative impact on the tanker freight market. Because of this expectation, we could possibly see producing countries trying to pump out as much product as possible before the agreement enters into effect, which could offer some support to the tanker market before we reach May 1st.
Looking further ahead and as “expecting the unexpected” is something everyone must have gotten used to by now, I’d say that there are a few possible scenarios in which neither the oil market dries up, nor prices manage to stabilize at much higher levels and push freights down. We have seen many times during previous output cuts that there have been some non-compliant members and we won’t be surprised to see certain producing countries eventually ramping up production above what was agreed this time as well.
Not only would such a development restore part of the cargoes lost, but it would also cause great dissatisfaction to compliant members that would start losing market share due to non-compliance and this could eventually lead to a new price war as a result. In addition to that, global demand for oil will gradually begin to increase as countries around the world eventually start to exit the pandemic emergency state and return to normality, while let’s not forget the amount of tonnage that has been used for storage and will not be competing for business in the tanker market.
By Ilias M. Lalaounis
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 04 June 20
CHINA'S BENCHMARK POWER COAL PRICE EDGES UP - XINHUA
China’s benchmark power coal price rose slightly during the past week.
The Bohai-Rim Steam-Coal Price Index (BSPI), a gauge of ...
Thursday, 04 June 20
DON'T FORGET THE REAL PURPOSE OF RISK ASSESSMENTS - GARD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
When doing a risk assessment, we often overcomplicate it and forget its real purpose.
Rather than ensuring that crew ...
Wednesday, 03 June 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Once again shipping is about to venture into uncharted waters and before the challenges of the past decade are forgotten, shipowners will have to o ...
Tuesday, 02 June 20
KOSPO LOOKING FOR 80000 MT OF 4200 NCV COAL FOR JULY
COALspot.com: Korea Southern Power Co., Ltd. (KOSPO) has issued an International tender for 80,000 Metric Tons (MT) 4200 NCV coal for 12 - 21, July ...
Tuesday, 02 June 20
INDONESIAN COAL MINER BUMI RESOURCES Q1 OUTPUT UP 5% - REUTERS
Indonesia’s largest coal miner Bumi Resources posted a 5% increase in first-quarter output at 20.8 million tonnes, the company said in a stat ...
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- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- PTC India Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- White Energy Company Limited
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Minerals Council of Australia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- The University of Queensland
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
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