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Thursday, 16 April 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 As everyone anticipated the results of the OPEC + G20 meeting last week, it was very interesting to watch the reaction of tanker rates that were in a bull run lately. Amidst an oversupplied oil market and expectations of production cuts and consequent oil price hikes, the large contango effect has made profitable several storage plays during the past couple of months, occupying a lot of ships as a result, while in addition to that, several countries decided (amid bottoming oil prices and the Coronavirus pandemic emergency) to increase to the maximum their strategic petroleum reserves (e.g. the US SPR already has 634 million barrels in storage vs. a total capacity of 713 million barrels).
Key stakeholders in the industry created an additional hype by characterizing this meeting as one of the most important and historic events in the last two decades, creating expectations that any deal would lead to a further spike in short-term activity. There were of course also some less optimistic voices in the industry insisting that deal or no-deal the tanker market remained fundamentally weak in the long term, with the pandemic restrictive measures around the world already leading to a 25-35 million b/d or 30% decrease in demand. Following the end of the meeting, OPEC+ announced output cuts of 9.7m b/d for May and June, 8m b/d for the remainder of 2020 and 6 million b/d for the period January 2021-April 2022. The record cuts we are about to witness in the next couple of months are almost equal to 10% of global supply, while together with non-OPEC+ member cuts the figure could even reach the equivalent of 1/5 of global supply.
This means that May onwards cargo loadings will definitely see significant declines and this will most likely have a negative impact on the tanker freight market. Because of this expectation, we could possibly see producing countries trying to pump out as much product as possible before the agreement enters into effect, which could offer some support to the tanker market before we reach May 1st.
Looking further ahead and as “expecting the unexpected” is something everyone must have gotten used to by now, I’d say that there are a few possible scenarios in which neither the oil market dries up, nor prices manage to stabilize at much higher levels and push freights down. We have seen many times during previous output cuts that there have been some non-compliant members and we won’t be surprised to see certain producing countries eventually ramping up production above what was agreed this time as well.
Not only would such a development restore part of the cargoes lost, but it would also cause great dissatisfaction to compliant members that would start losing market share due to non-compliance and this could eventually lead to a new price war as a result. In addition to that, global demand for oil will gradually begin to increase as countries around the world eventually start to exit the pandemic emergency state and return to normality, while let’s not forget the amount of tonnage that has been used for storage and will not be competing for business in the tanker market.
By Ilias M. Lalaounis
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 02 June 20
CHINA TAIYUAN COAL TRANSACTION PRICE INDEX DOWN 0.86 PCT - XINHUA
China Taiyuan coal transaction price index stood at 123.95 points Monday, down 0.86 percent week on week.
The index, released by Chi ...
Tuesday, 02 June 20
THE HISTORIC DECLINE OF US COAL - WOOD MACKENZIE
The first commercial power plant in the US was Thomas Edison’s coal-fired Pearl Street station in lower Manhattan, which started operating in ...
Tuesday, 02 June 20
COAL INDIA'S MAY SALES DRIVEN SHARPLY LOWER BY SLUMP IN POWER DEMAND - REUTER
Coal India’s sales fell 23.3% in May as utilities refrained from purchases amid record stockpiles and tepid demand because of a nationwide lo ...
Tuesday, 02 June 20
TUAH TURANGGA AGUNG RECORDED 4.54 MILLION TONS OF COAL SALES IN THE FIRST FOUR MONTHS OF 2020
PT United Tractors Tbk through its subsidiary, PT Tuah Turangga Agung recorded 4.54 million tons of coal sales in the first four months of 2020, up ...
Tuesday, 02 June 20
SOURING SINO-AUSTRALIA TRADE RELATIONS - BALTIC EXCHANGE
Cooling relations between the commodity powerhouses of China and Australia may point to trade troubles ahead when the world emerges from the Covid- ...
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- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Planning Commission, India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Australian Coal Association
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- White Energy Company Limited
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
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