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Thursday, 16 April 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 As everyone anticipated the results of the OPEC + G20 meeting last week, it was very interesting to watch the reaction of tanker rates that were in a bull run lately. Amidst an oversupplied oil market and expectations of production cuts and consequent oil price hikes, the large contango effect has made profitable several storage plays during the past couple of months, occupying a lot of ships as a result, while in addition to that, several countries decided (amid bottoming oil prices and the Coronavirus pandemic emergency) to increase to the maximum their strategic petroleum reserves (e.g. the US SPR already has 634 million barrels in storage vs. a total capacity of 713 million barrels).
Key stakeholders in the industry created an additional hype by characterizing this meeting as one of the most important and historic events in the last two decades, creating expectations that any deal would lead to a further spike in short-term activity. There were of course also some less optimistic voices in the industry insisting that deal or no-deal the tanker market remained fundamentally weak in the long term, with the pandemic restrictive measures around the world already leading to a 25-35 million b/d or 30% decrease in demand. Following the end of the meeting, OPEC+ announced output cuts of 9.7m b/d for May and June, 8m b/d for the remainder of 2020 and 6 million b/d for the period January 2021-April 2022. The record cuts we are about to witness in the next couple of months are almost equal to 10% of global supply, while together with non-OPEC+ member cuts the figure could even reach the equivalent of 1/5 of global supply.
This means that May onwards cargo loadings will definitely see significant declines and this will most likely have a negative impact on the tanker freight market. Because of this expectation, we could possibly see producing countries trying to pump out as much product as possible before the agreement enters into effect, which could offer some support to the tanker market before we reach May 1st.
Looking further ahead and as “expecting the unexpected” is something everyone must have gotten used to by now, I’d say that there are a few possible scenarios in which neither the oil market dries up, nor prices manage to stabilize at much higher levels and push freights down. We have seen many times during previous output cuts that there have been some non-compliant members and we won’t be surprised to see certain producing countries eventually ramping up production above what was agreed this time as well.
Not only would such a development restore part of the cargoes lost, but it would also cause great dissatisfaction to compliant members that would start losing market share due to non-compliance and this could eventually lead to a new price war as a result. In addition to that, global demand for oil will gradually begin to increase as countries around the world eventually start to exit the pandemic emergency state and return to normality, while let’s not forget the amount of tonnage that has been used for storage and will not be competing for business in the tanker market.
By Ilias M. Lalaounis
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Sunday, 07 June 20
A SCRUBBER FITTED 61,000 ULTRAMAX WAS FIXED DELIVERY PHILIPPINES TRIP VIA SOUTH AFRICA REDELIVERY VIETNAM AT $9,500 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The small flicker of hope at the beginning of this week has kindled a small fire under the Capesize market. At a paltry $3369 from the ...
Saturday, 06 June 20
KOREA SOUTH-EAST POWER CO INVITED COAL BIDS FOR MIN 5600 NCV COAL
COALspot.com: South Korea’s KOREA SOUTH-EAST POWER CO., LTD. (KOEN) has issued an international tender for 270,000 Tons (MT) min. 5600 NCV co ...
Friday, 05 June 20
COAL INDIA ESTIMATES PRODUCTION GROWTH BY OVERBURDEN REMOVAL - FINANCIAL EXPRESS
PSU miner Coal India (CIL) has now limited mining only to Overburden Removal (OBR) with falling demand of coal. The mining behemoth is now keeping ...
Friday, 05 June 20
U.S. SANCTIONS COMPLIANCE GUIDANCE RELEASED FOR THE GLOBAL MARITIME, ENERGY AND METALS SECTORS - AKIN GUMP
Key Points
On May 14, 2020, OFAC, the Department of State and the U.S. Coast Guard jointly released guidance for persons involved in the ma ...
Friday, 05 June 20
IN THE FIRST 5 MONTHS OF 2020 AUSTRALIA SHIPPED 6.8 MLN TONNES TO VIETNAM - BANCHERO COSTA
In the first 5 months of 2020, global seaborne coal trade declined by as much as -8% year-on-year, according to vessel tracking data from Ref ...
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- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Australian Coal Association
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Planning Commission, India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
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