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Thursday, 16 April 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 As everyone anticipated the results of the OPEC + G20 meeting last week, it was very interesting to watch the reaction of tanker rates that were in a bull run lately. Amidst an oversupplied oil market and expectations of production cuts and consequent oil price hikes, the large contango effect has made profitable several storage plays during the past couple of months, occupying a lot of ships as a result, while in addition to that, several countries decided (amid bottoming oil prices and the Coronavirus pandemic emergency) to increase to the maximum their strategic petroleum reserves (e.g. the US SPR already has 634 million barrels in storage vs. a total capacity of 713 million barrels).
Key stakeholders in the industry created an additional hype by characterizing this meeting as one of the most important and historic events in the last two decades, creating expectations that any deal would lead to a further spike in short-term activity. There were of course also some less optimistic voices in the industry insisting that deal or no-deal the tanker market remained fundamentally weak in the long term, with the pandemic restrictive measures around the world already leading to a 25-35 million b/d or 30% decrease in demand. Following the end of the meeting, OPEC+ announced output cuts of 9.7m b/d for May and June, 8m b/d for the remainder of 2020 and 6 million b/d for the period January 2021-April 2022. The record cuts we are about to witness in the next couple of months are almost equal to 10% of global supply, while together with non-OPEC+ member cuts the figure could even reach the equivalent of 1/5 of global supply.
This means that May onwards cargo loadings will definitely see significant declines and this will most likely have a negative impact on the tanker freight market. Because of this expectation, we could possibly see producing countries trying to pump out as much product as possible before the agreement enters into effect, which could offer some support to the tanker market before we reach May 1st.
Looking further ahead and as “expecting the unexpected” is something everyone must have gotten used to by now, I’d say that there are a few possible scenarios in which neither the oil market dries up, nor prices manage to stabilize at much higher levels and push freights down. We have seen many times during previous output cuts that there have been some non-compliant members and we won’t be surprised to see certain producing countries eventually ramping up production above what was agreed this time as well.
Not only would such a development restore part of the cargoes lost, but it would also cause great dissatisfaction to compliant members that would start losing market share due to non-compliance and this could eventually lead to a new price war as a result. In addition to that, global demand for oil will gradually begin to increase as countries around the world eventually start to exit the pandemic emergency state and return to normality, while let’s not forget the amount of tonnage that has been used for storage and will not be competing for business in the tanker market.
By Ilias M. Lalaounis
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 11 June 20
JAN-MAY, INDONESIA SHIPPED 175.15 MILLION TONS OF COAL TO ITS OVERSEAS BUYERS
Indonesia's coal production for the first 5 months of this year have reached 228 million tons. January – May 2020, Indonesia shipped US$ ...
Thursday, 11 June 20
CHINA'S BENCHMARK POWER COAL PRICE EDGES UP - XINHUA
China’s benchmark power coal price rose slightly during the past week.
The Bohai-Rim Steam-Coal Price Index (BSPI), a gauge of ...
Wednesday, 10 June 20
OPEC+ CUTS EXTENSION TO ACCELERATE MARKET REBALANCING - FITCH RATINGS
Fitch Ratings-London-08 June 2020: The OPEC+ agreement to extend by one month record oil production cuts should accelerate market rebalancing, Fitc ...
Wednesday, 10 June 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
In contrast to the economic projections of the past two years for the first half of 2020, the oil & gas industry and those involved in it faced ...
Wednesday, 10 June 20
CHINA TAIYUAN COAL TRANSACTION PRICE INDEX DOWN 0.19 PCT - XINHUA
China Taiyuan coal transaction price index stood at 123.71 points Monday, down 0.19 percent week on week.
The index, released by Chi ...
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- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Planning Commission, India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- The University of Queensland
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
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