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Thursday, 16 April 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 As everyone anticipated the results of the OPEC + G20 meeting last week, it was very interesting to watch the reaction of tanker rates that were in a bull run lately. Amidst an oversupplied oil market and expectations of production cuts and consequent oil price hikes, the large contango effect has made profitable several storage plays during the past couple of months, occupying a lot of ships as a result, while in addition to that, several countries decided (amid bottoming oil prices and the Coronavirus pandemic emergency) to increase to the maximum their strategic petroleum reserves (e.g. the US SPR already has 634 million barrels in storage vs. a total capacity of 713 million barrels).
Key stakeholders in the industry created an additional hype by characterizing this meeting as one of the most important and historic events in the last two decades, creating expectations that any deal would lead to a further spike in short-term activity. There were of course also some less optimistic voices in the industry insisting that deal or no-deal the tanker market remained fundamentally weak in the long term, with the pandemic restrictive measures around the world already leading to a 25-35 million b/d or 30% decrease in demand. Following the end of the meeting, OPEC+ announced output cuts of 9.7m b/d for May and June, 8m b/d for the remainder of 2020 and 6 million b/d for the period January 2021-April 2022. The record cuts we are about to witness in the next couple of months are almost equal to 10% of global supply, while together with non-OPEC+ member cuts the figure could even reach the equivalent of 1/5 of global supply.
This means that May onwards cargo loadings will definitely see significant declines and this will most likely have a negative impact on the tanker freight market. Because of this expectation, we could possibly see producing countries trying to pump out as much product as possible before the agreement enters into effect, which could offer some support to the tanker market before we reach May 1st.
Looking further ahead and as “expecting the unexpected” is something everyone must have gotten used to by now, I’d say that there are a few possible scenarios in which neither the oil market dries up, nor prices manage to stabilize at much higher levels and push freights down. We have seen many times during previous output cuts that there have been some non-compliant members and we won’t be surprised to see certain producing countries eventually ramping up production above what was agreed this time as well.
Not only would such a development restore part of the cargoes lost, but it would also cause great dissatisfaction to compliant members that would start losing market share due to non-compliance and this could eventually lead to a new price war as a result. In addition to that, global demand for oil will gradually begin to increase as countries around the world eventually start to exit the pandemic emergency state and return to normality, while let’s not forget the amount of tonnage that has been used for storage and will not be competing for business in the tanker market.
By Ilias M. Lalaounis
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 17 June 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
After experiencing record earnings during the first half of the year, the focus of headlines concerning the tanker market has shifted from the deve ...
Wednesday, 17 June 20
KOREA SOUTHERN POWER CO INVITED 80000 MT OF LOW CALORIFIC VALUE COAL FOR AUGUST 1H, 2020 LOADING
COALspot.com: Korea Southern Power Co., Ltd. (KOSPO) has issued an International tender for 80,000 Metric Tons (MT) Min 4,200 kcal/kg - Max. ...
Tuesday, 16 June 20
A GLOBAL ECONOMIC SLUMP: WHAT WILL IT MEAN FOR METALS AND MINING? - WOOD MACKENZIE
Back before coronavirus knocked “normal” out cold, the key issues for miners were sub-investment prices, rising requirements for ESG an ...
Tuesday, 16 June 20
CHINA TAIYUAN COAL TRANSACTION PRICE INDEX UP 0.58 PCT - XINHUA
China Taiyuan coal transaction price index stood at 124.43 points Monday, up 0.58 percent week on week.
The index, released by China ...
Tuesday, 16 June 20
HIGHER IRON ORE PRICES OFFSET CORONAVIRUS-DRIVEN PRODUCTION RISK - FITCH RATINGS
Lower iron ore production in Brazil, resulting from rising coronavirus infections, should only marginally affect the cash flow of Vale and other gl ...
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- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- The University of Queensland
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- White Energy Company Limited
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
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