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Thursday, 16 April 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 As everyone anticipated the results of the OPEC + G20 meeting last week, it was very interesting to watch the reaction of tanker rates that were in a bull run lately. Amidst an oversupplied oil market and expectations of production cuts and consequent oil price hikes, the large contango effect has made profitable several storage plays during the past couple of months, occupying a lot of ships as a result, while in addition to that, several countries decided (amid bottoming oil prices and the Coronavirus pandemic emergency) to increase to the maximum their strategic petroleum reserves (e.g. the US SPR already has 634 million barrels in storage vs. a total capacity of 713 million barrels).
Key stakeholders in the industry created an additional hype by characterizing this meeting as one of the most important and historic events in the last two decades, creating expectations that any deal would lead to a further spike in short-term activity. There were of course also some less optimistic voices in the industry insisting that deal or no-deal the tanker market remained fundamentally weak in the long term, with the pandemic restrictive measures around the world already leading to a 25-35 million b/d or 30% decrease in demand. Following the end of the meeting, OPEC+ announced output cuts of 9.7m b/d for May and June, 8m b/d for the remainder of 2020 and 6 million b/d for the period January 2021-April 2022. The record cuts we are about to witness in the next couple of months are almost equal to 10% of global supply, while together with non-OPEC+ member cuts the figure could even reach the equivalent of 1/5 of global supply.
This means that May onwards cargo loadings will definitely see significant declines and this will most likely have a negative impact on the tanker freight market. Because of this expectation, we could possibly see producing countries trying to pump out as much product as possible before the agreement enters into effect, which could offer some support to the tanker market before we reach May 1st.
Looking further ahead and as “expecting the unexpected” is something everyone must have gotten used to by now, I’d say that there are a few possible scenarios in which neither the oil market dries up, nor prices manage to stabilize at much higher levels and push freights down. We have seen many times during previous output cuts that there have been some non-compliant members and we won’t be surprised to see certain producing countries eventually ramping up production above what was agreed this time as well.
Not only would such a development restore part of the cargoes lost, but it would also cause great dissatisfaction to compliant members that would start losing market share due to non-compliance and this could eventually lead to a new price war as a result. In addition to that, global demand for oil will gradually begin to increase as countries around the world eventually start to exit the pandemic emergency state and return to normality, while let’s not forget the amount of tonnage that has been used for storage and will not be competing for business in the tanker market.
By Ilias M. Lalaounis
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Saturday, 20 June 20
NO ESCAPING GLOBAL TRADE SLUMP - BALTIC EXCHANGE
Those hoping for a decent recovery in trade in the second half of the year should prepare for disappointment.
New data from the Unit ...
Friday, 19 June 20
INDIA'S COAL CONSUMPTION GROWTH IN 2019 SLOWEST SINCE 2001: BP STATS REVIEW - HINDU BUSINESS LINE
Growth in global energy markets slowed in 2019 in line with weaker economic growth, according to the bp Statistical Review of World Energy 2020. Th ...
Friday, 19 June 20
KOWEPO TO IMPORT 1,050,000 MT OF MIN 5300 NCV COAL FOR THREE YEARS
COALspot.com: Korera Western Power Co., Ltd. (KOWEPO) has issued an International tender for Total 1,050k MT Min.5,300 kcal/kg NCV coal for t ...
Thursday, 18 June 20
INDIA: GOVT'S PLAN TO CUT COAL IMPORT GOES FOR A TOSS AS FY20 BREAKS LOGISTICS CHAIN; LOCAL OUTPUT STAGNANT - FINANCIAL EXPRESS
Weak logistics support and disrupted supply chain towards the end of the last financial year 2019-20 hit the government’s plan to cut coal im ...
Thursday, 18 June 20
INDIA: THERMAL PLANTS TO OPERATE BELOW 53% CAPACITY IN FY21 AS POWER DEMAND DIPS - BUSINESS STANDARD
The Plant Load Factor (PLF) of thermal power stations across the country is projected to dip below 53 per cent in this fiscal. Muted power demand f ...
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- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Australian Coal Association
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- The University of Queensland
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- White Energy Company Limited
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
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