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Thursday, 16 April 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 As everyone anticipated the results of the OPEC + G20 meeting last week, it was very interesting to watch the reaction of tanker rates that were in a bull run lately. Amidst an oversupplied oil market and expectations of production cuts and consequent oil price hikes, the large contango effect has made profitable several storage plays during the past couple of months, occupying a lot of ships as a result, while in addition to that, several countries decided (amid bottoming oil prices and the Coronavirus pandemic emergency) to increase to the maximum their strategic petroleum reserves (e.g. the US SPR already has 634 million barrels in storage vs. a total capacity of 713 million barrels).
Key stakeholders in the industry created an additional hype by characterizing this meeting as one of the most important and historic events in the last two decades, creating expectations that any deal would lead to a further spike in short-term activity. There were of course also some less optimistic voices in the industry insisting that deal or no-deal the tanker market remained fundamentally weak in the long term, with the pandemic restrictive measures around the world already leading to a 25-35 million b/d or 30% decrease in demand. Following the end of the meeting, OPEC+ announced output cuts of 9.7m b/d for May and June, 8m b/d for the remainder of 2020 and 6 million b/d for the period January 2021-April 2022. The record cuts we are about to witness in the next couple of months are almost equal to 10% of global supply, while together with non-OPEC+ member cuts the figure could even reach the equivalent of 1/5 of global supply.
This means that May onwards cargo loadings will definitely see significant declines and this will most likely have a negative impact on the tanker freight market. Because of this expectation, we could possibly see producing countries trying to pump out as much product as possible before the agreement enters into effect, which could offer some support to the tanker market before we reach May 1st.
Looking further ahead and as “expecting the unexpected” is something everyone must have gotten used to by now, I’d say that there are a few possible scenarios in which neither the oil market dries up, nor prices manage to stabilize at much higher levels and push freights down. We have seen many times during previous output cuts that there have been some non-compliant members and we won’t be surprised to see certain producing countries eventually ramping up production above what was agreed this time as well.
Not only would such a development restore part of the cargoes lost, but it would also cause great dissatisfaction to compliant members that would start losing market share due to non-compliance and this could eventually lead to a new price war as a result. In addition to that, global demand for oil will gradually begin to increase as countries around the world eventually start to exit the pandemic emergency state and return to normality, while let’s not forget the amount of tonnage that has been used for storage and will not be competing for business in the tanker market.
By Ilias M. Lalaounis
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Saturday, 09 May 20
ANGLO AMERICAN CONSIDERS SPINNING OFF SOUTH AFRICAN COAL OPERATIONS - REUTERS
Diversified miner Anglo American said on Thursday it prefers unbundling and listing its thermal coal operations in South Africa on the Johannesburg ...
Friday, 08 May 20
THE COLLAPSE OF THE OIL AND BUNKER FUEL MARKETS IN EARLY 2020 - PETER SAND
The sulphur regulation from the International Maritime Organization (IMO) that came into force on 1 January 2020 took the centre stage in the shipp ...
Friday, 08 May 20
LNG DEMAND FACED SEVERAL HEADWINDS IN THE FIRST QUARTER OF 2020 - GASLOG
LNG demand faced several headwinds in the first quarter of 2020 including a warmer than average winter in the northern hemisphere, high inventory l ...
Thursday, 07 May 20
IEEFA UPDATE: THE OUTLOOK FOR THERMAL COAL IN SOUTHEAST ASIA AND SOUTH ASIA
Seven headwinds are building to sustained growth in coal in Asia
The medium term outlook for thermal coal in Southeast Asia is posit ...
Thursday, 07 May 20
IMO 2020: BUNKER CLAIMS HANDLING GUIDE FOR A NEW DECADE - THE STANDARD CLUB
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
IMO 2020 is the term generally used to describe the following regulations under Annex VI of the International Convention ...
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- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Planning Commission, India
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- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
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- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
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- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
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- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
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- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
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- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
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- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
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- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
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- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
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- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
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- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
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- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
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- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
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- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
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- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
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- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
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- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
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- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
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- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
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- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
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- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Australian Coal Association
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
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