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Thursday, 16 April 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 As everyone anticipated the results of the OPEC + G20 meeting last week, it was very interesting to watch the reaction of tanker rates that were in a bull run lately. Amidst an oversupplied oil market and expectations of production cuts and consequent oil price hikes, the large contango effect has made profitable several storage plays during the past couple of months, occupying a lot of ships as a result, while in addition to that, several countries decided (amid bottoming oil prices and the Coronavirus pandemic emergency) to increase to the maximum their strategic petroleum reserves (e.g. the US SPR already has 634 million barrels in storage vs. a total capacity of 713 million barrels).
Key stakeholders in the industry created an additional hype by characterizing this meeting as one of the most important and historic events in the last two decades, creating expectations that any deal would lead to a further spike in short-term activity. There were of course also some less optimistic voices in the industry insisting that deal or no-deal the tanker market remained fundamentally weak in the long term, with the pandemic restrictive measures around the world already leading to a 25-35 million b/d or 30% decrease in demand. Following the end of the meeting, OPEC+ announced output cuts of 9.7m b/d for May and June, 8m b/d for the remainder of 2020 and 6 million b/d for the period January 2021-April 2022. The record cuts we are about to witness in the next couple of months are almost equal to 10% of global supply, while together with non-OPEC+ member cuts the figure could even reach the equivalent of 1/5 of global supply.
This means that May onwards cargo loadings will definitely see significant declines and this will most likely have a negative impact on the tanker freight market. Because of this expectation, we could possibly see producing countries trying to pump out as much product as possible before the agreement enters into effect, which could offer some support to the tanker market before we reach May 1st.
Looking further ahead and as “expecting the unexpected” is something everyone must have gotten used to by now, I’d say that there are a few possible scenarios in which neither the oil market dries up, nor prices manage to stabilize at much higher levels and push freights down. We have seen many times during previous output cuts that there have been some non-compliant members and we won’t be surprised to see certain producing countries eventually ramping up production above what was agreed this time as well.
Not only would such a development restore part of the cargoes lost, but it would also cause great dissatisfaction to compliant members that would start losing market share due to non-compliance and this could eventually lead to a new price war as a result. In addition to that, global demand for oil will gradually begin to increase as countries around the world eventually start to exit the pandemic emergency state and return to normality, while let’s not forget the amount of tonnage that has been used for storage and will not be competing for business in the tanker market.
By Ilias M. Lalaounis
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 06 May 20
KOSPO INVITED COAL BIDS FOR LOW CALORIFIC VALUE COAL
COALspot.com: Korea Southern Power Co., Ltd. (KOSPO) has issued an International tender for 160,000 Metric Tons (MT) Low Calorific Value Coal for J ...
Wednesday, 06 May 20
COST CHALLENGES IN A US$20/BBL WORLD - WOOD MACKENZIE
A new approach is needed to ensure supply sector resilience
How will US$20/bbl affect the oil and gas supply chain?
It’s going to g ...
Wednesday, 06 May 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
It comes as no surprise that activity in the dry bulk SnP market remains soft, with asset values caught in the downward spiral generated by the Cov ...
Wednesday, 06 May 20
FLOATING STORAGE OF OIL CARGOES - STANDARD CLUB
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Due to a combination of circumstances there is now a worldwide shortage of storage space ashore for both unrefi ...
Wednesday, 06 May 20
IRON ORE TRADE REMAINS REMARKABLY RESILIENT THIS YEAR, AT LEAST IN ASIA - BANCHERO COSTA
Iron ore trade remains remarkably resilient this year, at least in Asia, despite the global economic impact from COVID-19. In the first 4 months of ...
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- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Australian Coal Association
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
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